All-Purpose Playbook: NFL Week 14 picks, analysis and more
Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is either (a) a guide to many things NFL related, or (b) a road map to hell. Check back here on Friday afternoons for survivor pool analysis, football picks, a smattering of GIFs and some nonsense. Follow me @brettsmiley and email me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.
Somehow, most likely due to the natural passage of time, it's Week 14 already. So we're at the stage where there's about one quarter of the cookie left and you're sad that so little remains, but trying to stay mindful of the few, remaining delicious bites.
So let's enjoy these last four weeks, loyal APP readers, then there's the playoffs and the Super Bowl followed by a brief period of depression . . . and then there's NCAA conference basketball play leading up until the tournament. I just needed to get that off my chest.
About last night: The line opened with Arizona favored by 7.5, hung there for a couple days until fattening a bit, until ballooning to 10.5 or 11 at some books. The thought was that Arizona's stout run defense would shut down Adrian Peterson and force the struggling Teddy Bridgewater to beat the Cards through the air against a strong secondary led by Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. Well, Teddy dodged numerous blitzes and found ample time to throw 36 interception-free passes, completing 25 of them for 317 yards as the Vikes converted 6 of 11 times on third down. In other words, Bridgewater played pretty well on the road against a solid defense.
The Vikings defense, missing four starters, did a nice job limiting a Cardinals offense that's scored more than 31 points per game on average.
A long way of saying that it didn't matter whether the masses of Cardinals backers laid 7.5 or 10.5 — they all stared at defeat for much of the game, the realization sinking in sooner for those laying double digits.
And how about last week's picks? They went pretty much exactly as expected: 2-1 overall with Chiefs and Broncos covers and a loss backing the Panthers (41-38 win, but no cover) after picking against them three of the previous four weeks. Thanks, Cam. The season record rises to 22-13-3 with four games on the docket this Sunday.
LET'S DO THIS!!!!
WEEK 14 PICKS
Dallas Cowboys +7.5 at Green Bay Packers
Bryant has volunteered his input for the committee, which Goodell has ordered to provide advice to another committee (the competition committee) so they may make the rules on what constitutes a catch less perplexing.
The group may actually take Dez up on the offer. Why not? If they're looking for even more voices and expertise, perhaps Nic Cage can help unpackage the riddle of what's a catch in the NFL.
Anyhow, back to the game with a couple relevant notes:
1. Whatever the committee decides, it probably won't help struggling Packers wideout Davante Adams (aka NOT Jordy Nelson) who's dropped five passes (seven percent of targets) and bungled other opportunities;
2. Bryant will once again be running routes for backup quarterback Matt Cassel, who's managed a highly unimpressive 78.6 passer rating through five starts, putting him in Colin Kaepernick (78.5) and Nick Foles (69) territory.
Paraphrased: There's serious offensive problems on both sides of the ball. Recently-benched running back Eddie Lacy's (missed team curfew) inconsistency has added to the Packers' woes as he'll face a Dallas front seven that's been playing very well. The 'Boys D held the Redskins to 73 rushing yards, the Dolphins to 70 and Buccaneers to 84 in three of their past four outings.
The forecast in Green Bay on Sunday is calling for rain and 15-mph wind; a wet ball and wind will only make life more difficult for the offenses and, the idea is, keep the score tighter. APP is not sure that the Packers want to add Hail Mary to their regular menu of plays, but who knows.
So how about your gameplan, Jason Garrett?
Let's cut to owner Jerry Jones who hilariously and (unnecessarily, it seems) blindsided Jason Garrett after the 19-16 victory on Monday night, saying that "we won on will, not tactical mastery."
Go on, Jerry, this is amusing.
"I am stunned that we haven't been able to win more games without Tony [Romo]," Jones said. "And I would have thought that we could have coached it up enough, and put it together enough, that we would not have lost those games without Romo early. We would be in better shape than we are right now."
Garrett surely knows by now that getting brutally flattened is part of the cost of collecting $5 million per year to coach Jones' team.
This will be a game where Darren McFadden get about 27 carries as Dallas tries to grind out yardage and shorten the game.
And how about Green Bay's home field advantage? They've lost their past two home games (Bears, Lions) and scored a combined 29 points in those efforts.
Nevertheless, 75 percent on the tickets are coming in on the Packers on a line that will probably move to 7 and possibly dip below as the game nears.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals
Over the past four games, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for a total 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns as the Steelers have put up 143 points in consecutive 30-plus points efforts. Meanwhile the Bengals have one of the most efficient offense in the league per Football Outsiders.
The forecast as of Friday is calling for 67 degrees with a 61-percent chance of a s***load of points (game total is currently 49). This has the makings of a good 'ol fashioned shootout, friends, whooooooeeeeeeee!!!!
The Bengals got some good news on the injury front this week (NFL touchdown leader Tyler Eifert should be a go) but they won't have starting cornerback Adam Jones or safety George Iloka, which, against the Steelers' WR trio of Antonio Brown-Martavis Bryant-Markus Wheaton . . . is not good. At least slot cornerback Leon Hall might be a go after missing last week with a back injury.
The Steelers will also keep that secondary honest with 32-year-old De'Angelo Williams, averaging 4.9 yards per carry this season, who must spend his Tuesdays skinny dipping in the fountain of youth. Bonus stats from Rotoworld's Rich Hribar: Pittsburgh has averaged 529 yards per game over their past four and is the fourth team ever and the first team to have 450 total yards in four straight games since New England in 2011.
No disrespect to the Bengals who have plenty of offensive firepower of their own; the point is that Sheriff Ben and the Steelers can light up a scoreboard and no deficit they might find themselves in will be too great. At 7-5 they'd be ROYALTY in the lowly NFC East but no such luck as they're currently on the outside of the AFC Wild Card race looking in. They desperately need this game and often familiarity within the division breeds close games.
FYI: At this time you may need to pony up a little extra juice to get the field goal on Pittsburgh (-120).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 vs. New Orleans Saints
We could have had pounded line at -3.5 for period as it's now out to -4 and possibly growing.
So here's the thing: New Orleans' defense remains a total trainwreck. The Associated Press notes: The Saints are 32 of 32 in the NFL giving up 31.7 points and 425.2 yards per game, and have allowed three opponents to score more than 40 in the past five contests.
''Something is not going right when everybody is not on the same page," safety Jairus Byrd said. "I can't really tell you how you fix it, but everyone to a man has to know what you're doing.''
But the Saints D does lead in one category, at least cornerback Brandon Browner does — with 21 penalties costing 198 yards, the most penalties since 2001 with still four games to go.
That defense will have to contend with wideouts Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and running back Doug Martin who's averaging 5 yards per carry and 94 per game. And rookie Jameis Winston just continues to impress, especially in the red zone where he's tallied 12 TD passes, rushed for five more and hasn't thrown a single pick.
There's impactful injuries on Tampa's side, too, as the D may be missing linebacker LaVante David (ankle) after losing another linebacker, rookie Kwon Alexander (suspended for PED violation). So it goes in the NFL — next man up.
All aboard the Buccaneers' pirate ship as they look to improve to 7-6 and hunt for a wild-card spot. WHOOOO WHOOO!!!
Houston Texans +3.5 vs. New England Patriots
In the battle of J.J. Watt's broken hand vs. Rob Gronkowski's bum leg . . . we're taking the points. Don't forget that Texans head coach Bill O'Brien spent five season on the Patriots' coaching staff as the WR, QB coach and offensive coordinator, so he'll have a good scent for what the Patriots will be cooking with its patchwork cast of skill position players. Houston's defense has stepped up big time recently (ranked 10 overall per Football Outsiders) and should be able to slow down New England's screen, pick, dink-and-dunk game.
APP looks forward to Big Vince Wilfork taking a seat atop Brady's head at some point.
"You will be okay . . ." Wilfork commented on the post. "Looking forward to hitting u . . . I mean seeing you my friend."
The hook may disappear so get it while you can.
(Season record: 22-13-3)
#tbt to a special moment with a great teammate and friend. Take it easy on me this weekend, Vince!
Posted by Tom Brady on Thursday, December 10, 2015
ILL-ADVISED TEASER
We had another IAT success last week with a 3-leg, 7-point teaser. Let's get back to it and throw some Denver Broncos into the mix: Cowboys +14.5, Steelers +10, Broncos -0.5.
Happy Week 14, everyone!
Follow me @brettsmiley, send email to basmiley at gmail.com and follow The Buzzer on Facebook
