National Football League

All-Purpose Playbook: Week 14 NFL underdog picks, totals, DraftKings & more

Published Dec. 4, 2014 4:30 p.m. ET

Brett Smiley

Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is (1) either a guide to many things NFL and wagering, such as underdogs and totals and daily fantasy football or (2) a road map to hell. Check back here on Thursdays for more football picks, a smattering of GIFs and occasional nonsense.

Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can email me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.

Whhhoooooooooooooooeeeee! You know who had a Happy Thanksgiving? Yeah, this guy. 3-0. I even parlayed all three games for a nice little payday, then ate my weight in pecan pie.

I'm not sure if that constitutes revelling or bragging, so I'm just going to let Ron Swanson do the work for me for the rest of the recap.

Around 3:30 p.m. ET on Thanksgiving (when the Lions overcame early struggles before squashing the Bears)

Around 6:15 p.m. ET (as the Eagles whipped the Cowboys)

Around 10 p.m. ET (while the Seahawks destroyed the inept 49ers)

As for some takeaways from last week's Thanksgiving slate that may help us going forward: First, the 49ers offense looked flat-out terrible against a resurgent Seahawks defense.

Second, the sidearm delivery Matthew Stafford uses to evade pass rushers is simultaneously exciting and terrifying -- if you're backing the Lions. Finally, the Cowboys defense is showing some cracks, most of all in its secondary, most of all cornerback Brandon Carr, who ranks 113th of ProFootballFocus's 117 qualified DBs. On the bright side, Carr's name has led to clever local headlines like "Carr proving to be a Lemon."

UNDERDOG PICKS OF THE WEEK: SUPER BOWL BOWL XXXVII EDITION

The Buccaneers and Raiders have lost a lot of football games since meeting in the Super Bowl in January 2003. The Bucs have have lost 113, or about 9.4 per season, while the dreadful Raiders have dropped 134 in total, 11.2 on average and probably rising because there are four games left in this season. Too bad for their fans, but as long as they cover the number, they're good in my book.

RAIDERS +8 over 49ERS

Here's a visualization of the Raiders last game, a humiliating 52-0 demolition they suffered in St. Louis:

It was over before it started and just a horrible performance all around.

But despite that and their putrid 1-11 record, the Raiders are 6-6 against the spread this year. Usually the more informed bettors have gotten the better of the number because the Raiders have conditioned us to expect losing.

Anyhow, Oakland is only two weeks removed from its inspiring first win over the Kansas City Chiefs, Football Outsiders' No. 8 team in DVOA and a team that's very much in the thick of the playoff race.

There's a few factors that make me like this Raiders team in this spot, and only one of them relates to that tab of LSD I took this morning. First off, it's the big Bay Area crosstown rivalry. The Raiders and 49ers and their fans hate each other.

"It's definitely something that's important to the fans," Raiders QB Derek Carr said. "I know that. It's very important to them. They always get amped up for it every time these two teams kick it off."

Then again some Raiders fans were just sent to Planet Earth as part of some alien science experiment and really don't care about the outcome of regular season football games.

The crowd in Oakland will be ready and I imagine the Raiders players will come back with some energy, looking to take out some aggression from the previous week against a red jersey. The Raiders have been able to generate a bit of pass rush with Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith and standout rookie linebacker Khalil Mack. They'll get after Colin Kaepernick who's struggled in recent weeks along with the entire offense. Since their Week 8 bye, the Niners have scored 10 points, 27, 16, 17, and 3.

There's not much to say about the Raiders offense other than that they have one. Carr has shown flashes at times and the unit will get back rookie running back Latavius Murray, who ripped off a 90-yard touchdown run against the Chiefs before leaving that game with a concussion. Interim head coach Tony Sparano said that Murray won't be a "workhorse" rusher down the stretch, but if he gets more carries than Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden, they'll be better for it.

Last reason: 77% of bettors punching early tickets (as of Thursday morning) have hitched a wagon to the 49ers. Let's fade the public.

BUCCANEERS +10 at LIONS

The Buccaneers may be one of the best 2-10 teams of all time, which is like winning an ugly pageant, but, still . . . never mind.

Last week the Bucs held a capable Bengals offense (except in prime-time games) to only two scores in a 14-13 defeat, good for a cover at +3.5.

The task will be tougher this week at Ford Field but the Bucs are still pounding away and it's thanks in large part to the stalwart in the middle of the defense: Gerald McCoy. On the plight of keeping the competitive fire lit during a brutal season, the two-time Pro Bowl tackle said:

"I have my reasons to come to work,'' he said. "Josh McCown has his reasons. Lavonte (David) has his reasons. You have to find reasons. One of the main ones is that this is a privilege to play. I have a gift to play this game, so I show up every day. I could tank it, but that's not right. You have people fighting for our country. They go through adversity. If they tanked it, there would be a lot of things you wouldn't be able to do."

That's the kind of positive attitude that permeates a locker room and keeps a team on the brink from falling apart. Also, this week the Bucs will probably get leading tackler Lavonte David back as well as center Evan Dietrich-Smith.

The Buccaneers backfield is a hot mess of guys who've murdered several million fantasy football teams, but McCown does have Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson on the outside to keep the offense moving.

The whole defensive unit has improved, forcing nine turnovers in the past five weeks, and I think McCoy and Jacquies Smith can keep some pressure on Stafford to help prevent a Calvin Johnson explosion. This line has been bouncing between 9.5 and 10 so grab that 10 if you can, unless you think I'm a moron and want to hitch your wagon to the Lions and lay a 10-spot.

TOTALS PICKS OF THE WEEK: I'M GOING DOWN, DOWN, DOWN

That is to say under, not down, I hope.

I've only intermittently posted totals picks and so I haven't tracked them, but if someone wants to go back through and tell me how terrible they've been, have at it. So be warned: It hasn't been pretty, although I'm feeling some mojo after winning big with an under on the huge 58-point total on the Packers-Patriots game.

Buccaneers at Lions: Under 41.5

I touted the Bucs' improving defense up above so now let me throw a trend at you -- the Bucs under has hit six straight weeks, and way under the past three weeks. Now they'll come up against Detroit's top-ranked defense that's allowed only 17.3 per game. Granted Calvin Johnson has been hobbled a bit, but the Lions have scored only 19.3 points on average. The over is certainly much more fun (and less terrifying) to root for but 78% of bettors have punched an over ticket, which leads me to believe that the under is the right side.

Chiefs at Cardinals: Under 41

I'm thinking this is another defensive struggle because Chiefs and Cardinals will match strength against strength -- the rushing game vs. rushing defense, respectively. You know the last Chiefs wide receiver to score a touchdown? It was Dante Hall -- and he did it on a punt return in like 2005. (Actually Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery both had one in that berserk Wild-Card game against the Colts in January.)

Clearly, the Chiefs are a rushing, ball-control, defensive-minded team; Alex Smith has averaged only 6.8 yards per attempt and doesn't qualify for consideration for PFF's list of deep passing stats for lack of attempts. Cards QB Drew Stanton has been better at home, but he's going to face serious heat from the Chiefs front seven, chief among them NFL sack leader Justin Houston. With running back Andre Ellington likely on the shelf with a hip pointer, the Cards will have to turn to a motley crew of Stepfan Taylor, Marion Grice and recent signee Michael Bush to kickstart a running game that's combined for a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry.

What are those things called again?

Oh, yeah. It's a low total but I just don't think the scoreboard operator will have a busy day.

REALLY ILL-ADVISED TEASER

I used that GIF last week but it's pretty much this column's mascot, so I figured it needed at least one more appearance.

Here's the 7-point, three-team teaser:

The Raiders (discussed above), Chiefs under (ditto), add in the Packers (currently -12) , who are going to bludgeon the Falcons, and we get: Raiders +15; Chiefs/Cardinals u 48; Packers -5.

You all ready? Let's go!!!!

DRAFTKINGS PICKS: BACK TO THE DISCOUNT AISLE!

If you're reading this in the first place you probably know what daily fantasy leagues are all about, but if not: You draft a team within the bounds of a salary cap, join a contest, turn on Red Zone Channel and pray. It's a lot of fun. More information here.

Quarterbacks:

Shaun Hill ($5,500) at Washington: Go read this Washington Post column about all the team's coverage breakdowns against the Colts last week. In one word: disaster. I don't know if it's more coaching, personnel or what but they've been flat-out terrible all year (second worst per PFF). Shaun Hill is certainly not Andrew Luck but you can get Hill dirt cheap and reasonably hope for a 250-yard and two touchdown day, then allocate the savings elsewhere.

Ryan Tannehill ($7,300) vs. Ravens: Baltimore's secondary has gotten burned badly at times this season and especially last week when it allowed 20 passing first downs and two passing TDs in the final five minutes in a 34-33 loss. Baltimore also just lost Haloti Ngata (14 QB hurries) for the rest of the regular season because of a PED violation. Can he beat them deep? We shall see. I rode the Tannehill Mobile last week and got disappointed but I think he may put the bus into high gear this week.

Running backs:

Latavius Murray ($3,800) vs. 49ers: I know what Sparano said but three MJD or McFadden tackles for losses and I think he may turn to the young stallion. We know he's got breakaway speed, so if you get 10-12 carries from a sub-$4K running back you've done well.

Ryan Mathews ($4,700) vs. Patriots: Mathews has looked pretty sharp since returning from a shoulder injury. I think the Chargers will attack the Patriots' middle-of-the-pack rushing defense as opposed to Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. For under $5,000, Mathews is pretty good value even against a formidable opponent.

Wide receivers:

Stedman Bailey ($4,300) at Washington: Refer to the section on Shaun Hill. Hill has targeted him a promising 15 times the past two weeks and he's got a tasty matchup.

Robert Woods ($4,500) at Broncos: Woods is priced reasonably well for a guy who's amassed as many targets as he has. The Bills may be forced to throw a lot more than they like against Denver and someone has to catch the ball. Just make sure his ankle is OK.

Tight end:

Kyle Rudolph ($3,300) vs. Jets: The Jets have been very friendly to tight ends, allowing a league-high 12 touchdowns to opposing TEs. At 6-foot-6, Rudolph is a great red-zone target and a decent bet to reel another one in this week.

Jordan Reed vs. Rams ($4,600): It appears he's Colt McCoy's favorite target -- 11 targets last week and 7 a few weeks earlier at Dallas. The Rams haven't been the friendliest to tight ends but if he gets enough looks he should come away with some numbers to show for it.

Defense/ST:

Vikings ($3,400) vs. New York Jets: Don't expect two or even one more blocked punt returns for a touchdown, but DO expect a Geno Smith interception and some sacks. That is, of course, if the Vikes can play some running defense unlike the Dolphins.

Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can email me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.