Best and Worst Thursday Night NFL Plays (Week 1)
Every week of the NFL season, we'll break down the best fantasy football starts and sits for the Thursday night game. For continuity sake, the advice listed below will be based on 12-team, PPR leagues.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton, CAR: This one is tougher than you might think. In all likelihood, Newton was the first quarterback off the board in your draft this season. He was the top point-scorer in all of fantasy football last season. He's a dual threat with a nose for the endzone who could easily carry fantasy teams once again this year.
So what's the holdup? You're obviously not benching him when he's perfectly healthy in Week 1 of the season, right?
Well...
Here's the case for sitting Cam. He's going up against a Broncos defense that was 1st in passing yards allowed last year, letting up just 199 yards per game. He's on the road in a hostile environment. When these two teams met in the Super Bowl, Newton was also very underwhelming: 265 yards, 1 INT, 45 rushing yards.
Even with all that said, you're starting him in all traditional leagues. There are only about five quarterbacks I have ranked higher this week, and the chances you have both Cam and one of those quarterbacks on your roster are slim to none. DFS players should stay far away, but everyone else needs to trot out Cam and his high floor (thanks to his rushing) and hope for the best.
Verdict: Start
Trevor Siemian, DEN: He's truly one of the worst college quarterbacks to land a starting job this quickly. Siemian was brutal at Northwestern, throwing 7 touchdowns and 11 picks in 11 games in his Senior year in 2014. We've seen nothing to suggest that he'll be a valuable fantasy asset, both in college and preseason play. Maybe against a defense like New Orleans you'd flirt with the idea, but definitely not against Carolina.
Verdict: Sit
Running Backs
Jonathan Stewart, CAR: The Broncos had the #3 run defense in the NFL last year, so the matchup is a rough one. Stewart's lack of receiving upside (16 catches in 13 games last year) coupled with all the red zone threats present for Carolina severely limit his appeal.
You likely drafted Stewart as an RB2/RB3 type, which means you should have another option on your bench to your replace him. There will be weeks where game flow favors Stewart and he'll have plenty of chances around the goal-line. This isn't one of them.
Verdict: Sit
C.J. Anderson, DEN: The Panthers had the #4 run defense last year, so this matchup is equally brutal for Anderson. Still, there are some things working in his favor, including a young quarterback, Gary Kubiak's likely dedication to the run, and having a green rookie serving as his direct backup. Anderson is going to get the ball -- a lot -- as the gameplan will almost certainly be ultra-conservative for the Broncos.
We've seen this before. In Super Bowl 50, Anderson racked up 27 total touches for 100 yards and a touchdown and served as a total bellcow. I'm more bullish on Anderson this year than most, and the pure volume of touches coming his way makes me fine with starting him, even in a difficult matchup.
Verdict: Start
Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas & Emmanuel Sanders, DEN: The Panthers are starting two rookie corners, which bodes well for Thomas and Sanders. Without Josh Norman, this defense is a lot more vulnerable on the outside.
Still, I have a hard time seeing Gary Kubiak dial up 30+ passes for Siemian right out of the gates. Volume is going to be an issue here, and Sanders and Thomas could very end up neutralizing each other. I consider both to be Flex options rather than WR2/WR3 types in this one just because it's hard to tell what their quarterback situation is going to look like.
It's worth remembering that Peyton Manning was really bad last year and that Thomas and Sanders both put up strong campaigns. If possible, though, I would take a "wait and see" approach if you have solid bench options with good matchups. I don't trust Siemian.
Verdict: Sit
Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn Jr., CAR: Again, Denver's pass defense was the best in the NFL last year. Benjamin is on a "soft" snap count, which makes him an easy sit in my mind:
That's just not enough time on the field to make a real impact, particularly against this defense. Funchess might be the best play out of Carolina's wideouts, but you should have more viable options on your roster that are in much better matchups. Avoid all three, especially in DFS, and wait until next week to deploy them.
Verdict: Sit
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen, CAR: He was drafted as a top-3 tight end, and he should once again be Cam Newton's safety blanket all game long. The matchup is a bad one, but Olsen was targeted 9 times in the Super Bowl and the likelihood you have another great tight end on your roster is very low. Get him going, and hope Newton leans on him throughout the course of the game.
Verdict: Start
Virgil Green, DEN: I'm intrigued by Green's season-long prospects, but again, this isn't a fantasy matchup you want to try and exploit. If anything, Denver seems more likely to pick on the rookie corners than work the middle of the field.
Green should see a decent amount of targets as the year progresses, but he's off the TE1 radar in Week 1 until we see how he's deployed in Denver's new offense.
Verdict: Sit
Defenses
Carolina Defense: You likely had to spend up to draft them, and it's Week 1, and you aren't dropping them now. They're a top-5 play against Siemian and the Broncos in a game with one of the week's lowest projected point totals (41).
Denver Defense: Ditto for Denver. The Panthers have talent, but this is a dominant defense that you're rolling with in Week 1.
