Best & worst case scenarios for K-State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas
It's June. Every fan base in college football is in the midst of the game's greatest annual tradition: Convincing itself that this is the year.
Maybe they're right. Maybe they're horribly, horribly wrong.
Last year, a TCU team coming off a 4-8 season won its first Big 12 title and captured a New Year's Six Bowl blowout win over an SEC West opponent while its oft-criticized, inconsistent quarterback morphed into a Heisman contender. That's a Best Case Scenario with a capital "B."
Back in 2009, and Oklahoma team returning a Heisman quarterback and the best offense in college football history suffered a rash of injuries and fell from No. 3 to a 7-5 regular season and an appearance in the Sun Bowl.
Worst-case scenarios don't get much uglier than that. This week, we'll be looking at the best and worst cases for every team in the Big 12. Today, we tackle part 2 of our series. Let's get to it:
BEST-CASE SCENARIO
KANSAS STATE: After games against Miami, UCLA and Auburn in recent seasons, K-State is back to a simpler nonconference slate, and it pays off with a 3-0 start. Bill Snyder's worked his magic before, and a near-upset at Oklahoma State bring about questions of if he's going to do it again, even in a rebuilding year.
Freshman Alex Delton emerged to win the job in fall camp, and impresses through four games. It's easy to believe the next four years are in fine hands. He struggles in Week 6 against a prepared, opportunistic TCU defense but the Wildcats' schedule is their friend in 2015. TCU, OU, Baylor and WVU all have to visit Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
K-State nearly upsets Oklahoma in Manhattan a week later, but Samaje Perine is too much in the second half. The good news? A trip to Texas awaits and K-State moves to 7-1 in their last eight games against the Longhorns with a win in Austin.
Baylor is far from its usual juggernaut self on the road, and the Wildcats take advantage. With a physical win over the Bears, K-State's biggest strength, its offensive line, turns heads by controlling one of the nation's best defensive lines, helping Charles Jones run for 185 yards and three scores. Snyder moved Jones to Wildcat duties a la Daniel Sams in 2013 and the Bears had no answer to K-State's ball control.
A night game in Lubbock loomed, but the Red Raiders' soft front seven gets steamrolled for an easier-than-expected win. Iowa State and Kansas? No sweat.
K-State's five-game winning streak nearly put a Big 12 title in reach, but 10-2 TCU wrapped up the trophy with a win over Baylor on Thanksgiving weekend. K-State closes with a solid home win against West Virginia to finish 9-3 and set up some 2016 title talk heading into bowl season.
OKLAHOMA: Another year, another 4-0 start. Blowout wins over Tennessee and West Virginia gets everyone wondering if the Sooners are back.
Baker Mayfield sealed the starting job in fall camp and is averaging 314 yards a game. Most importantly, he's only fumbled once and thrown a single pick through four games. The turnover issues that plagued him in Lubbock have vanished; he's figured out how to rein in his aggressive approach to the position.
Red River? The stands are all red after Joe Mixon and Perine both top 100 yards at the Cotton Bowl to move to 5-0. Kansas State nearly ruins OU's perfect record a week later, but the Sooners survive on a late scrambling touchdown run from Mayfield.
The Sooners make quick work of Texas Tech at home and blow through KU and Iowa State before the three games that will define their season. Their first trip to McLane Stadium is not an enjoyable one: Seth Russell burns the secondary for 400 yards and a seven-point victory, sending the Sooners to 9-1 and out of the top five.
TCU's trip to Norman is much like last year's game: Physical, tight and decided by a couple plays in the final minutes. Eric Striker catches Trevone Boykin from behind on a broken play for a sack/fumble that ends TCU's attempt at a game-winning drive and thus, the game.
Bob Stoops exacts some revenge on Oklahoma State a week later with a 14-point victory, sacking Mason Rudolph six times. That number surpassed Texas' win total on the season, too.
This, despite the Longhorns beating Baylor in the final week of the season to give the Sooners a Big 12 title and push them into the playoff. New OC Lincoln Riley picks up the Broyles Award as college football's top assistant coach, too. Perine's 1,700-yard season is to thank for that.
While Oklahoma gears up for a playoff berth, Texas is back home for the holidays.
Urban Meyer and Cardale Jones get the best of the Sooners in the national semifinal, but Stoops proves once again he's at his best when expectations are moderate. The task for 2016 is validating hopes of a return to the playoff.
OKLAHOMA STATE: Mason Rudolph was already at 1,000 yards passing by the time the Cowboys started conference play. The Longhorns' defense offered a difficult challenge but OC Mike Yurcich maintained much-needed balance, allowing Rennie Childs and Chris Carson to combine for 175 yards rushing and three touchdowns, pushing the Cowboys to 4-0. Carson topped 100 yards again in a four-point win over Kansas State in Stillwater.
With only a 31-yard, game-winning kick ahead of West Virginia the next week, Jimmy Bean bulled his way up the gut to get a paw on it and empty Oklahoma State's bench onto the field with no time left.
"We must be livin' right," coach Mike Gundy tells cameras with glazed over eyes still trying to decipher just how the Pokes survived their trip down country roads.
After a bye and a drama-free win over Kansas, the Pokes' underrated defense swallows up Texas Tech, forcing five turnovers and leaning on a power running game to take advantage of a thin Red Raiders front seven.
That put the Cowboys at 8-0 heading into November, when they welcomed an undefeated TCU team. Trevone Boykin is too much, and a late interception from Rudolph ends OSU's fourth-quarter rally from down 17 to within seven.
OSU doesn't bother to get caught in a trap game at Iowa State and a week later, prove once again that Boone Pickens Stadium is Baylor's personal house of horrors. A 55-21 win stretches the Pokes streak of home wins over Baylor by at least 28 points to nine.
OSU needed to get lucky in Week 13 and does: TCU goes down to Texas for its second league loss and as the clock ticks down in the final minutes of a 10-point win over Oklahoma, word spreads through the sidelines: Oklahoma State has its second Big 12 title and will head to the Sugar Bowl.
TEXAS: Jerrod Heard spent his spring "closing the gap" the gap between himself and the starting QB job and in fall camp, he wins it.
It doesn't take long to see why. He completes his first nine passes against Notre Dame and the Longhorns ride a 14-0 first-quarter lead to a 27-20 win, thanks to 155 yards from Johnathan Gray. It's more of the same against Rice and Cal and whispers of a 2-4 start are officially impossible at 3-0.
Peter Jinkens and Shiro Davis play a 60-minute game of "Meet me at the QB" with unwilling participant Mason Rudolph, exposing a still-young Oklahoma State offensive line that thought it had improved.
Texas' trip to TCU a week later proves to be one of the Big 12 games of the year. The Longhorns frustrate Trevone Boykin for one of their best defensive performances in the last five years, but two turnovers from Heard are too much to overcome in the 21-17 loss. Texas A&M's 40-point home loss to Mississippi State and Dak Prescott earlier in the day softens the blow of the season's first loss.
Red River is much of the same but this time, Texas forces a pair of fourth-quarter turnovers. Hassan Ridgeway pounces on a Baker Mayfield fumble to set up a game-winning touchdown in the final minute.
After an open date, Gray feasts on K-State, Iowa State and KU's defensive lines, racking up 600 yards in the three-game stretch to top 1,000 for the season and cement 2015 as his breakout year. He's finally healthy and it shows.
The trip to Morgantown--like it always does--gets dicey. Texas wrestles its way back from a 10-point deficit to force overtime but after kicking a field goal in the first overtime, can't keep WVU out of the end zone.
Two weeks later, UT takes out its frustration on Texas Tech on Thanksgiving, playing its best offensive game of the season with 550 yards in a 44-17 blowout.
Two days later, Texas A&M suffers a blowout loss to LSU that eliminates the Aggies from bowl consideration.
Undefeated Baylor spends much of the next week calling Texas' 9-2 mark "garbage." Texas saves its response for the opening kick, delivering a huge hit that serves as foreshadowing for the next 60 minutes.
Duke Thomas and Bryson Echols muscle up on Baylor's receivers, throwing Seth Russell's timing off. Ridgeway and Poona Ford plug up the line of scrimmage to slow down Shock Linwood and save Baylor's first loss of the season for the final week, with a playoff berth on the line. Texas' 37-17 win in Waco pushes the Bears out of the playoff and gives Texas its first double-digit win season since 2009. Johnathan Gray wins the Doak Walker Award.
Heard balances offseason Heisman talk as the Longhorns return to their role as Big 12 favorite entering 2016.
Over the summer, nearly 300,000 Austin residents who have moved to the city in the last 10 years decide it's too much of a football town and too hot to be cool anymore, leaving all the live music and food to Austin lifers.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
KANSAS STATE: It's never a good sign when the most interesting thing about a season is which number is higher: Starting quarterbacks or wins.
Bill Snyder likes to keep it vanilla in FCS openers, but once again, it hurts the 'Cats. A late fumble from Joe Hubener seals K-State's fate against South Dakota, a second embarrassing loss to an FCS opponent in three seasons.
The SnyderCats get to 2-1 with wins over UTSA and Louisiana Tech, but Hubener struggles and forces the offense to turn to Jesse Ertz against Oklahoma State. The offensive line plays well, but he looks unprepared and turns the ball over three times in an ugly loss. Mistake-free football? It's not happening in Manhattan this year.
Alex Delton gets his shot after three ugly, low-scoring losses to TCU, OU and Texas lead into the bye week. Charles Jones is a constant and the defense, led by Travis Britz up front, Elijah Lee at linebacker and Danzel McDaniel and Dante Barnett roaming in the secondary is solid. Still, K-State can't get enough offensive production to earn a win.
Baylor and Texas Tech's offenses are too much. The freshman Delton isn't trying to score on every drive, he's trying to score 40 on every drive. OC Dana Dimel turns back to Hubener against Iowa State a week later and K-State' offensive line bullies the Cyclones to a win, snapping a six-game losing streak and keeping bowl hopes alive. Kansas stays close by playing a clean game without a turnover, but K-State survives with a late defensive stop and a 17-13 win.
That sets up a final showdown on Championship Saturday: Win or go home.
Despite being back home and riding a two-game winning streak, West Virginia's Skyler Howard wins the battle of first-year starters and a 100-yard receiving day for Kyle Klein--Kansas State's first such outing of the season--isn't enough. Bill Snyder's team won't be bowling and will be looking for a coach in the offseason.
Snyder decides to hang up his windbreaker and Nike Cortezes for a second time and ride off into the sunset.
OKLAHOMA: How much longer until every Oklahoma fan who ever ripped on Landry Jones calls him up to apologize? The Sooners' quarterback woes take center stage this year, and Jones looks a whole lot better compared to OU's current trio than his predecessor: No. 1 pick Sam Bradford.
Baker Mayfield's strong year on scout team brought hope, but after winning the job, he found the bench in the fourth quarter of a loss at Tennessee, thanks to five turnovers in his first road game as a Sooner. SEC territory isn't as kind to Stoops as it was last time, back when OU beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
Mayfield starts again two weeks later against West Virginia, but heads back to the sideline in the third quarter after a sack/fumble results in a turnover. Samaje Perine is able to carry the Sooners to a narrow win with 177 yards and two scores, but optimism is low, despite a 3-1 start.
Trevor Knight gets his first start of the season in Red River, but Texas' front seven harasses him all day and the Sooners manage just 130 yards of offense and he completes fewer than 50 percent of his passes. New offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley faces an avalanche of questions about why Samaje Perine hasn't hit double-digit carries since a win over West Virginia.
Perine gets his carries a week later against Kansas State, but the Wildcats' front seven is ready and the Sooners fall victim to SnyderBall on the road. OU rebounds with three convincing wins, but nobody's impressed with its ability to beat ISU, KU and Texas Tech, especially when only KU came on the road.
That optimism is squashed when Baylor receiver KD Cannon catches an 80-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage. Last year's beating was only the beginning. The Bears hang 60 on Oklahoma.
TCU adds another loss to OU's tally, its first at home. Oklahoma State stretches the Sooners' losing streak to three. In three weeks, the Sooners went from the thick of the Big 12 title race to certified disaster at 7-5.
Another lackluster bowl trip awaits OU. Just hope it doesn't run into Clemson.
OKLAHOMA STATE: The end of 2014 meant Oklahoma State officially found its quarterback, right? Well, maybe not. It was only three games, after all.
The Pokes' weak nonconference schedule had a few too-close-for-comfort games, but 3-0 is 3-0. Mason Rudolph might only have five touchdown passes and five picks, but maybe it's just offseason rust? A sophomore slump?
Texas' talented front seven doesn't care what it is, but they feasted on him in Austin, sacking the sophomore six times and forcing two picks in a 17-point Longhorn win. So much for an 8-0 start.
Rudolph started the following week against Kansas State, but J.W. Walsh earned half the game's reps by design from an increasingly desperate Mike Yurcich. It was ugly, but it worked. OSU and K-State combined for just eight complete passes, but Oklahoma State left with a 24-20 win.
A road trip to West Virginia was less friendly. Shelton Gibson got the best of Kevin Peterson for a 175-yard receiving day in a 10-point Mountaineers win. OSU survived close wins against Kansas and Texas Tech and made it to November with a 6-2 record and control of their destiny in the Big 12 title race.
That ended fast. TCU routs the Pokes in Stillwater, running for 235 yards. With Baylor on its minds, OSU falls victim to the trap game of all trap games, losing at Iowa State in overtime to a Cyclones team fighting for a bowl berth.
Baylor makes quick work of the Cowboys, who don't have the offense to keep up with the Bears. It's beginning to feel a lot like mid-2014 in Stillwater, when the Cowboys lost five consecutive games by at least 21 points.
Oklahoma can't continue that trend, but it can recapture state bragging rights and send Oklahoma State to 6-6. Last year's satisfying finish is a distant memory and a once promising future for the Cowboys looks a lot hazier than it did in August.
An 0-for-November will do that, and leave you looking for an excuse to get out of playing a bowl game, too.
TEXAS: Does Texas have a quarterback or not? Jerrod Heard's development looks stunted during fall camp and Tyrone Swoopes keeps his starting job. Swoopes looks rattled and airmails as many passes as he completes. The Longhorns only manage 10 points and 100 yard of total offense after a garbage time touchdown, thanks to a bust from an Irish walk-on named Rudy.
Texas survives Rice, 27-17, despite a 10-10 tie at halftime. Thank Johnathan Gray's 90 yards rushing and two touchdowns for that.
The Longhorns need a late goal-line stand to hang on for a win against Cal, but Oklahoma State's balance a week later means a blowout. Texas' first road trip since the Notre Dame loss meets a similar outcome: TCU swallows up a one-dimensional Texas offense and Trevone Boykin leaves the Longhorn defense guessing in a 38-7 TCU rout.
Oklahoma stretches Texas' losing streak to three with another lopsided loss that left the burnt orange half of the Cotton Bowl empty for most of the second half.
Texas' losses continue to pile up with another against a rebuilding Kansas State team. The Longhorns never solve Charles Jones in the Wildcat, but the worst of the schedule is behind them. At 2-5, Texas rebounds with wins over Iowa State and Kansas to put a bowl game in reach, but a trip to Morgantown means the rest of the season is a must-win for Texas.
The Longhorns get one against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night but as the clock ticks down in an embarrassing road loss to Baylor in Waco, word spreads that Texas A&M wins the SEC title game on a Hail Mary, completing an undefeated season and booking a playoff ticket.
Texas sits at home over the holidays while it watches Texas A&M win the national title. Elsewhere, the city announces I-35 from Round Rock to south Austin will be shut down for the next year. You can't rush a good repaving job.
