Boren's expansion comments strike familiar, unproductive tone
It was a hot September Friday in 2011. TCU was in Waco preparing to play Baylor in its season opener, unaware that the following month, it would accept an invitation to join the Big 12
About 270 miles north on Interstate 35, David Boren uttered 16 words that caused the first Big 12 game of the season to be played under a depressing shadow of an uncertain future.
"I don't think OU is going to be a wallflower when all is said and done," he said, boasting that the Sooners held major interest in multiple conferences while the Big 12's foundation appeared to be crumbling.
Texas A&M had already announced its intention of leaving the Big 12 and Boren's quote begat a response that spelled out certain instability ahead for the conference.
"It's somewhat surprising that comment came out because I know everybody's been working together," then-Missouri athletic director Mike Alden said in response. "You put something like that out there and it just reinforces that image of being unstable."
Two months later, Missouri announced its intention to join the SEC the following year.
Back that day Boren also expressed a desire--this may sound familiar if you've paid attention in the last week--for the Big 12 to return to 12 members soon.
"I think if we could eventually -- and that doesn't mean in one year, maybe it's going to take two or three years -- if we were to eventually get back to 12, I would feel better about it," Boren said back then.
Anybody with a working knowledge of Google could find Boren's opinion on the future of the Big 12. Last week he again promoted expansion, arguing the Big 12 was "psychologically disadvantaged" by having just 10 members and should "strive" to expand to 12.
The stakes aren't as high as the last time Boren made national headlines with expansion commentary, but his latest foray doesn't do anyone any good.
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said he estimates three of the league's schools believe the league should expand, but in theory, that number is higher.
"A number of us would love to go 12, but you have to consider the difficulties of doing so," one athletic director told FOX Sports Southwest.
Another AD said Boren's comments haven't caused much worry around the league's administrators. Still, there's an air of pointlessness around broaching the subject that can only upset the period of placid waters the Big 12 has enjoyed since bringing TCU and West Virginia into the league and signing a new television deal.
In short: There's no use in talking about going to 12 if there aren't enough resources to do so. Those "resources" would be programs that generate enough revenue to join the Big 12 without forcing the current 10 members to split a smaller share of revenue.
Boren explicitly said what's long been assumed: The television contracts with ESPN and FOX could be altered to assure 12 members wouldn't simply be splitting the same $252 million pot it handed out this school year. However, without more brands on par or better than TCU or West Virginia, new members won't add enough money to that pot to warrant inclusion.
Home runs Clemson or Florida State would have to be determined to leave the ACC (complete with its grant of rights agreement which, at best, would cost millions of dollars and several years to escape and at worst, would be impossible) to become realistic options for the Big 12. The same is true for Louisville, who Boren campaigned for inclusion during the league's first round of expansion.
BYU is the league's most realistic option, but between the Cougars' independent contract with ESPN, refusal to play on Sundays and far west location, membership presents plenty of potential hurdles.
Could the Big 12 bank on growth of programs like Houston or UCF? Beyond the kicking and screaming that would come with adding another Big 12 member on the recruiting trail, what's more likely? UCF and Houston becoming financially viable members after joining the conference? Or having only 10 members eventually becoming a gigantic problem for the Big 12's positioning in the new world of college football?
Banking on future growth is a wholly unnecessary gamble.
The pieces aren't there for Big 12 expansion. The league would love to expand, but you can't expand to fix a yet-nonexistent problem, especially if it's going to cost each of your members millions of dollars annually.
So what, exactly, does Boren accomplish by reiterating a long-held stance with college sports largely locked into an expansion stalemate?
Just like Boren's "wallflower" comment nearly four years ago, some sentiments are better left unexpressed.
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