Down in the dumps? Jimmie and Junior, but not Keselowski
FOX Sports 1 reporter Kaitlyn Vincie joins FOXSports.com editors Joe Menzer and Jared Turner for the latest edition of Bump 'n' Run, where the hottest NASCAR topics of the week are debated.
1. Who should be more disappointed about being knocked out of the Chase -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Jimmie Johnson?
Kaitlyn Vincie: I would have to say Jimmie Johnson on this one. I'm sure they're both very disappointed, but with Jimmie being a former six-time champion, he's never been in this situation before -- where he's out of it with four races still to go.
Joe Menzer: I actually think that maybe Dale Jr. should be more upset, but I don't think he is. He seems strangely satisfied with what his team has accomplished this year -- and on a certain level, I understand that. But Jimmie and that team are never going to be satisfied with anything less than a championship. Each team has won three races this season. But for one, Johnson's, that smells of failure; and for the other, Earnhardt's, it's considered a success.
Jared Turner: Junior has had a career season. The ones who should really be disappointed are the fans who make up Junior Nation. They had hoped -- justifiably so -- for so much more.
Vincie: It definitely seems like there were some frustrations between Jimmie and (crew chief) Chad (Knaus) toward the end of the season. Something just seemed like it was off a little bit. I'm not sure why.
Menzer: Hey, maybe they've been together too long. But somehow I think they'll get it straightened out and come back strong next year. I don't think they'll part ways until they at least make a much stronger run at that seventh title (which would tie Johnson for most all-time with Hall of Famers Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt).
Vincie: I don't think Jimmie and Chad will rest until they get eight titles. That's just my personal belief. But I think that's their ultimate goal, and they want to go into the history books together.
Kaitlyn Vincie
Follow Kaitlyn on Twitter @kaitlynvincie
Turner: I'll just add this about Junior -- his fall didn't just begin when the Chase started. It began about a month earlier. It's just that no one was paying much attention because he was already locked in the Chase. I see Jimmie's failure to advance more a result of bad luck than anything else. As for Junior, well, the No. 88 bunch just hasn't performed in the Chase. Period.
Menzer: But let's get this straight, Jared, Junior has NOT had a career season. He had a career-high six wins in 2004. Until he surpasses that, that IS his career season.
Turner: Here we go, Joe. I am well aware of his six-win 2004 season. But, go back and look. Yes, he won six races, but his results were literally all over the map that season. One week he would win, the next week he'd finish 25th, two laps down. This year, Junior was a CONSISTENT frontrunner for 20 races ... and then suddenly disappeared. So you might say, then, that the first 20 races of 2014 were a career year for Junior.
Menzer: Or a career half-year ...
Vincie: I would say one of Junior's greatest disappointments right now is that Steve Letarte is moving on as his crew chief. I'm sure they would have liked to have finished their time together on a championship note -- and during most of the regular season, it looked like they were one of the top contenders to do it. So to me, this was a bit of a surprise, and for them, I'm sure, a huge disappointment.
Menzer: Well, Jared, since you like numbers so much ... Junior finished third in points in 2003. He had the six wins in 2004. To me, those years are both better on the whole than this one -- but especially 2004. Six wins are a lot and make up for a lot.
Joe Menzer
Follow Joe on Twitter @OneMenz
Vincie: You two should simmer down. We're only on question No. 1.
Turner: You're right, Kaitlyn. I will say, though, that Steve and I chatted over the weekend at Talladega about the possibility of Junior not advancing, and here's what he said: "We'd love to move on, but I'm not going to let this Chase define our season. I think we've had a great year. It'll be disappointing to be eliminated if we are, but I'm not going to let that disappointment mask the fact that we won the Daytona 500 and two other races, swept Pocono, had a lot of good runs. I still think there are races we can win between here and the end of the year, so without a doubt there will be disappointment, but I think if we let disappointment kind of affect our entire year, then shame on us."
Pretty deep stuff here, methinks. And Kaitlyn, you'll have to forgive, Joe. He's an old guy. Gets cranky and confused really easily. I digress, though!
Menzer: Great quote from Letarte, I admit. But you are quite the name dropper, Jared. And yes, I am old -- I prefer to say older and usually wiser than you.
2. Is Brad Keselowski now the favorite to win it all after his clutch victory at Talladega?
Vincie: I'm going to say, yes, he's the favorite. But I'm going to stick to Kevin Harvick. He was my pick at the beginning of the Chase, and I stand by it. They've been fast at every track and I just feel like he and crew chief Rodney Childers are clicking and this may be their year.
Jared Turner
Follow Jared on Twitter @jared_turner
Menzer: I actually picked Keselowski at the beginning of the Chase and thought he was finished after Charlotte. I thought for sure if he got out front at Talladega, someone would wreck him. But they were too afraid they would wreck themselves, too, and he really put on a clutch performance. Having said that, I think Joey Logano should now be the favorite.
Turner: Heck, no. Brad has had a great year, but if you look at the last four non-plate races (since his win at Chicago), he's been very mediocre compared to teammate Logano, Kevin Harvick and to a lesser extent Jeff Gordon. All three of those guys have been consistently faster than Keselowski over the past five races, with Talladega being the one exception. And since we're not going to another plate track this year, Talladega has no bearing on the rest of the season as far as who may or may not run well.
Menzer: So, numbers guy, who do you like?
Turner: All that being said, I'm not sure there's a guy whose personality is better-suited for a one-race, winner-take-all championship showdown than Keselowski. Brad has ice in his veins, and he proved that again Sunday.
Menzer: Jared, you're talking out of both sides of your mouth. You say Brad's not the favorite, then you say he is (I think?).
Vincie: Yes, who is it you like, Jared?
Turner: I picked Jeff Gordon starting out the Chase but, quite honestly, I've been most impressed with Joey Logano. Five finishes of fourth or better, including two wins, in the first five Chase races. Are you kidding me? That's downright unreal for a guy who prior to this season could count all of his wins on three fingers.
Vincie: You two are on the Logano train.
Menzer: Yeah, every once in a great while Jared comes to his senses and agrees with the old, wise man.
Turner: No, Joe. I merely said I think Brad's personality, attitude and skills really mesh well with a one-race, winner-take-all format. But if I had to put money on someone, it would be JoLo for all the reasons I've stated. So now, now, Joe. Come down off your high horse.
Menzer: But I like it up here. The fact is, Logano has been by far the most consistent finisher in the Chase. He even tore up half the Talladega infield the other day and came back to finish a respectable 11th -- his worst Chase finish so far. I think his average finish before that in the Chase was 2.2.
But I wouldn't go so far as to nickname him "JoLo."
Turner: I just wonder if the pressure of a one-race, winner-take-all event might get in Logano's head a little bit. Let's be honest -- he's never really been in this position before, even though he made the Chase for the first time last year. That's my one reservation about putting money on a young "Sliced Bread."
Menzer: At least that's better than calling him "JoLo."
Turner: Gordon, Keselowski, Harvick -- they've all been there and done that. I don't see them being fazed by the bright lights of Homestead-Miami.
Vincie: It's hard to believe that we're having this discussion and no one is giving much love to Jeff Gordon. He's hungry for that fifth title and seems to have a very good working relationship right now with crew chief Alan Gustafson. Gordon is getting up there in years and needs to take advantage of this opportunity. He might not be in this position next year or the year after.
Menzer: Yeah, Gordon's not quite as old as me -- and no doubt has more left in the tank. But he knows better than anyone that these chances don't come around every year. I mean, he won that fourth title in 2001 -- 13 years ago. Even I was sort of a young man then.
3. Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman are still alive in the Chase, but have yet to win a race this season. Can they win the title without winning a single race, and would that be bad for NASCAR?
Menzer: I think it would be terrible for NASCAR.
Vincie: I would agree. In what other sport can you win a title without winning a single game? That makes no sense.
Turner: That odds of either of those drivers winning the title are about as good as NASCAR making the Daytona 500 the last race of the season. Just not going to happen. There are too many other strong drivers.
Vincie: I spoke with Luke Lambert (crew chief for Newman) before the Charlotte race and asked him this very question. He said yes, it's definitely possible and the numbers bear it out. Ryan Newman has been a model of consistency -- but I have to admit, that would bother me. I wouldn't like it.
Menzer: It would be bad in any season for a driver to win the title without winning a single race. I think it would be especially bad for it to happen this year -- when NASCAR has pushed all season long the notion that winning is everything.
Vincie: I think of the two, Matt Kenseth has a better shot of winning one of these last four races.
Turner: Of course, if this current points system had been in place last year, Junior would have won the title without winning a race. That wouldn't have exactly been bad for the sport.
Again, though, I'm not going to lose any sleep over this kind of hypothetical. Sure, anything's possible in a one-race, winner-take-all scenario, but the odds of Ryan or Matt winning the title are about as good as the odds of me winning the lottery.
Menzer: Even if Junior won the title without winning a race, it would be bad for NASCAR in my opinion. But you are right for once, Jared -- the odds of these guys winning it this year are about the same as the odds of you not necessarily winning the lottery but working out twice this week.
Turner: Actually, I was going to hit up the gym the next two nights, Joe, so the odds are actually far worse than you thought in that regard.
Vincie: Well, I want to thank you two for inviting me to do this. I feel like I hit the lottery being able to participate with you two fine gentlemen.
Menzer: But I know what you're thinking. We both need to hit the gym, right?
VIDEO: A look back at Kaitlyn Vincie's interview with crew chief Steve Letarte after Letarte helped Dale Earnhardt Jr. win the season-opening Daytona 500
