Dumba’s new deal could be a Wild bargain down the road
If the season started tomorrow, Matt Dumba would be the Minnesota Wild's third-highest paid player.
The young defenseman parlayed a career season into a major payday Saturday, signing a five-year, $30 million contract with an annual cap hit of $6 million. That reality is a bit jarring on its face: Dumba is just 23, has been a full-time NHL player for all of three-and-a-half years and now ranks 21st in yearly cap hit amongst NHL defensemen.
However, this isn't necessarily surprising given the Wild's past treatment of one of their most valuable young assets. Former general manager Chuck Fletcher gave up prized prospect Alex Tuch and depth forward Erik Haula to shield Dumba -- among others -- from the Vegas Golden Knights and the expansion draft last year.
| Season | Clause | Cap Hit | AAV  |
Base Salary | Total Salary |
| 2018-19 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $5,200,000 | $5,200,000 | |
| 2019-20 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $7,400,000 | $7,400,000 | |
| 2020-21 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,800,000 | $4,800,000 | |
| 2021-22 | Modified NTC | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $7,400,000 | $7,400,000 |
| 2022-23 | Modified NTC | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $5,200,000 | $5,200,000 |
| TOTAL | $30,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $30,000,000 |
By most measures, he's earned it.
Dumba had a banner year across the board, finishing with 50 points, 36 assists, 14 goals and a plus-15 rating in 23:49 minutes of ice time, all career highs. It was a much-needed step forward with the Wild's defensive corps shorthanded for much of the season. Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon missed significant time down the stretch, while Ryan Suter didn't play in the postseason.
That last part was key: Dumba led all Wild skaters in average ice time during their five-game playoff series with the Winnipeg Jets, averaging 26:58 minutes per night. He played a full 30 minutes in Game 1, and nearly got there again in Game 3, playing 29:42.
Taken together, that amounts to one of the best age-23 seasons of any defenseman this decade. Just 11 d-men have finished their age-23 season with 50 or more points since 2007-08.
| Player | Pts | Tm | Season | GP | G | A | +/- | PIM |
| Erik Karlsson | 74 | OTT | 2013-14 | 82 | 20 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
| Mike Green | 73 | WSH | 2008-09 | 68 | 31 | 42 | 24 | 68 |
| John Klingberg | 58 | DAL | 2015-16 | 76 | 10 | 48 | 22 | 30 |
| Seth Jones | 57 | CBJ | 2017-18 | 78 | 16 | 41 | 10 | 30 |
| Victor Hedman | 55 | TBL | 2013-14 | 75 | 13 | 42 | 5 | 53 |
| Tyson Barrie | 53 | COL | 2014-15 | 80 | 12 | 41 | 5 | 26 |
| Shea Weber | 53 | NSH | 2008-09 | 81 | 23 | 30 | 1 | 80 |
| Morgan Rielly | 52 | TOR | 2017-18 | 76 | 6 | 46 | -4 | 14 |
| Matt Dumba | 50 | MIN | 2017-18 | 82 | 14 | 36 | 15 | 41 |
| Dougie Hamilton | 50 | CGY | 2016-17 | 81 | 13 | 37 | 12 | 64 |
| Kris Letang | 50 | PIT | 2010-11 | 82 | 8 | 42 | 15 | 101 |
Dumba's new deal is right in line with the current going rate for a talented defender with room to develop. Toronto's Morgan Rielly (52 points last season), Calgary's Dougie Hamilton (44 points), Colorado's Tyson Barrie (57 points), St. Louis' Colton Parayko (35 points) and Columbus' Seth Jones (57 points) recently signed contracts of similar term and cap hit.
| Player | Signing Tm | Signing Date | Signing Age | Length | Year | Cap hit | AAV |
| Tyson Barrie | COL | 7/31/2016 | 25 | 4 | 2016-20 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 |
| Colton Parayko | STL | 7/20/2017 | 24 | 5 | 2017-22 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 |
| Jared Spurgeon | MIN | 12/21/2015 | 26 | 4 | 2016-20 | $5,187,500 | $5,187,500 |
| Torey Krug | BOS | 6/30/2016 | 25 | 4 | 2016-20 | $5,250,000 | $5,250,000 |
| Seth Jones | CBJ | 6/29/2016 | 21 | 6 | 2016-22 | $5,400,000 | $5,400,000 |
| Dmitry Orlov | WSH | 6/30/2017 | 25 | 6 | 2017-23 | $5,100,000 | $5,100,000 |
| Hampus Lindholm | ANA | 10/27/2016 | 22 | 6 | 2016-22 | $5,250,000 | $5,250,000 |
| Justin Schultz | PIT | 7/1/2017 | 26 | 3 | 2017-20 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 |
| Rasmus Ristolainen | BUF | 10/11/2016 | 21 | 6 | 2016-22 | $5,400,000 | $5,400,000 |
| Nick Leddy | NYI | 2/24/2015 | 23 | 7 | 2015-22 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 |
| Dougie Hamilton | CGY | 6/20/2015 | 22 | 6 | 2015-21 | $5,750,000 | $5,750,000 |
| Morgan Rielly | TOR | 4/13/2016 | 22 | 6 | 2016-22 | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
It's still an easy number to balk at -- perennial Norris Trophy contender Erik Karlsson has cost $6.5 million against the cap since 2012, Suter makes $7.5 million, etc. -- but it's no longer anywhere near the ceiling. Karlsson will command upwards of $11 million per season when he signs next summer, while fellow Norris hopefuls Drew Doughty ($11 million, beginning with the 2019-20 season) and P.K. Subban ($9 million, signed in 2014) have cashed in already. Washington's John Carlson, now 28, will cost $8 million against the cap through his age-36 season after signing an eight-year contract last month.
And unlike Carlson, or any of those players, Dumba's game still has plenty of runway left. His point totals have increased relative to his ice time in each of the last four seasons, from 16 points in 58 games and 15:01 in 2014-15, to 26 points in 81 games and 16:50, to 34 points in 76 games and 20:20 a season ago, all leading up to that stellar contract year.
His offensive abilities are well-documented, but Dumba's defense remains a consistent source of discontent for Wild fans thanks to a handful of particularly egregious miscues. His defensive lapses, however, are consistently overblown.
His underlying possession metrics were solid on a team that struggled as a group in that area, while those miscues are much rarer than you'd think.
Dumba turned the puck over 52 times in all situations last season and 38 times at 5-on-5. Those figures ranked 68th and 87th amongst NHL defensemen last season. That translates to 1.49 giveaways per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and 1.60 per 60 minutes in all situations, 91st and 109th amongst NHL defensemen, respectively.
Salary data courtesy of CapFriendly, statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
