Fantasy baseball transaction trends: added, dropped and why
After he was drafted 10th overall in the 2005 Amateur Draft, Cameron Maybin earned his first cup o’ coffee with the Tigers two seasons later without a Triple-A game played. As fantasy baseball owners know, Maybin’s speed and stolen base roto potential was the most alluring attribute to his game. Whether it was stunted development after he was traded to Miami or an inability to stay healthy during the regular season or a combination of both, he’s only played 100+ regular season games in a season three times since his 2007 debut.
With that said, Maybin, now 29 years old, has fantasy owners salivating over his speed once again. After his most recent return from injury, Maybin swiped four bases in his first six games in the Tigers’ lineup. Unfortunately, the .600 batting average will settle in around .260 BA by the end of the season if historic stat averages holds true.
With Billy Hamilton failing to hold up his end of the fantasy bargain and Dee Gordon suspended, owners chasing bags could do a lot worse than a healthy Cameron Maybin. Just be aware that if he lands on the DL for a second time in 2016, odds are he’ll rehab and return and work towards a regrettable third term.
Maybin’s Last 7 Games: 12-20 | HR | 5 R | 5 RBI | 4 SB
Danny Valencia
Why % Is Up: 14-39 with 6 HR | 9 R | 16 RBI over last 14 days
After crushing six homers in a four-day span, Valencia is 5-20 with no homers in his past five games. The journeyman did poke 18 homers in 105 games last season for the Blue Jays and Athletics. However, he’s on the wrong side of 30 years old, owns a 20 percent strikeout rate with a .356 BABIP vs. .307 for his career. For those who own and stick with him, the roller coaster ride will be bumpy.
Marcell Ozuna
Why % Is Up: .442 OBP | 12 R | 2 HR (14 Days)
For those who forget, this is my annual reminder that Ozuna was thrust into the majors after only 10 Double-A games during the Marlins’ injury plagued 2013 season. He still only has 33 Triple-A games under his belt. So, at 25 years old, Ozuna has literally endured baseball baptism by fire. Although I don’t envision the strikeout rate dipping south of 20 percent in 2016, the power is there – .242 ISO – and 20+ homers is a reality again. Ozuna hit 23 dingers in 2013. I’m buying this stock.
Khris Davis
Why % Is Up: 4 homers and .348 OBP in last seven days
I don’t think owners should dismiss the idea of consistent power off Davis’ bat. However, he strikeouts once every four at bats and owns the 10th-lowest walk rate in baseball at 3-percent. Add to that the fact he hasn’t hit for average since reaching the majors. Grip and rip fantasy investment.
Matt Andriese
Why % Is Up: 11.53 K/9 while in minors combined with CG shutout of the A’s
The 11.53 K/9 at Triple-A Durham was a little bit of a mirage as his career mark is 6.21. This has held true in Andriese’s three MLB starts as his K/9 rests at 4.64. Despite this, he’s 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Fantasy owners like that, but I’d rather see Blake Snell up full-time.
Trending Down
Sonny Gray
Why % Is Down: After allowing 21 earned runs over his past four starts, Gray came down with a DL-worthy back injury.
The strikeouts remain at 7.69 K/9, but the wheels have fallen off with a 6.19 ERA vs. 4.43 xFIP when Gray’s career marks are 3.17 and 3.57. It’s worth noting (and rubbing salt in an open wound) now that Gray’s xFIP was nearly a run higher than his ERA during the 2015 season. This rough patch could continue after he returns from the DL if the mental side of his game isn’t sharp.
Joe Ross
Why % Is Down: four straight losses, 5.71 ERA and 1.67 WHIP last 14 days
The 10 earned runs in three starts stinks up the joint, but the K/9 rate north of 7.00 and an ERA under 3.00 for the season has me interested in a buy-low candidate.
J.A. Happ
Why % Is Down: One bad start vs. Rays (8 ER)
With pitching at a premium, I just picked him off my league’s waiver wire. Even though Happ is 33 years old, I think his 5.77 K/9 rate can creep closer to his career mark of 7.53 throughout the course of his career. Plus, with the Blue Jays’ offense, he can sweat out some wins.
Kevin Gausman
Why % Is Down: in six games started, he only has one decision – a loss.
I would still be interested in investing in Gausman’s fantasy ceiling because the strikeouts will come and his walks through six games are under control (no pun). Need an arm? Look at Gausman.
Stephen Vogt
Why % Is Down: 1 HR and .247 OBP last 30 days
The dude spanked 18 homers in 2015 with a .341 OBP. This year, his walk rate has dipped eight percentage points to 3.4 – among the MLB worst – and his OBP is .283. It’s not like he’s been unlucky either as the BABIP is within career norms, contact rate is the same year-over-year, swinging strike rate same. I believe it’s just natural (assumed) regression from a feel good fantasy story of a year ago.
