Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: It's good to pick last
"Awesome, I got the first pick in my fantasy football draft!" -- Things nobody should say in 2015
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There are obviously plenty of very good players near the top of the draft, but nobody is a clear-cut No. 1. Eddie Lacy currently tops the FOXSports.com ADP. Over at Fantasy Football Calculator (FFC), it's Adrian Peterson, but he's one of eight players who has been taken first in the drafts they're tracking, and that's the highest number since 2011. FantasyPros.com tracks ADP using the consensus of five sources, and they've also got Peterson on top, followed by Jamaal Charles.
Le'Veon Bell is first in the FOXSports.com composite rankings, but you won't have him until Week 3. I've got Antonio Brown atop my overall list, knowing that some will snicker in standard formats (and maybe even in PPR).
Unless you LOVE one of those guys a lot more than the others, why would you want an early pick? With most drafts using a snake format - 1 through 12, then 12 back to 1, and so on - it looks much more attractive this season to get a slot near the end of the first round. Let's look to the FFC data involved at picking at the bottom of Round 1 - the 12/13 "wheel" in 12-team leagues - and see what we might get. We'll assume a standard format as opposed to PPR.
(Note: I will always tell you to wait on a quarterback. None should be drafted by 12/13. Maybe you can take Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck in the late second or early third round if you pick there. Otherwise, wait until Round 6 or 7.)
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP:
1.07 - C.J. Anderson
1.08 - Dez Bryant
1.09 - Matt Forte
1.10 - Demaryius Thomas
1.11 - LeSean McCoy
1.12 - Julio Jones
2.1 - Jeremy Hill
2.2 - Odell Beckham Jr.
2.3 - Andrew Luck
2.4 - DeMarco Murray
2.5 - Calvin Johnson
2.6 - Rob Gronkowski
Lots to choose from, right? I'm not big on Forte or McCoy, but you'll have a decent selection of combinations from any position. I've become a fan of the WR/WR start, and you could leave this wheel with pairings of Bryant/Thomas or Thomas/Jones. The most likely available wideout pairings involve Julio/OBJ/Megatron, and if you offered me a Julio/OBJ pairing to start things off, I'd sign up for it in every league possible.
My colleague Ryan Fowler likes running backs more than I do. If he picks 12th, he might be able to start his team with some combination of McCoy, Murray and Hill. Send Ryan a tweet (@FOXSportsFowler) to ask how excited he'd be about that.
And then, there's Gronk. It's easy to love a guy who outscored his nearest positional competitor by 19.7 percent in FOXSports.com fantasy scoring last season. If you'd like to get Gronkalicious at this spot, you have my approval.
But what happens next? If you go RB/RB or WR/WR or RB/WR or Gronk/something at the 12/13 wheel, what will happen while the next 22 picks pass you by? Here's what FFC says you might be looking at:
Running back: Joseph Randle (3.08), Mark Ingram (3.10), Latavius Murray (4.01), Carlos Hyde (4.04), Jonathan Stewart (4.06), Andre Ellington (4.08), Todd Gurley (4.10)
Gurley is risky in redraft leagues, and we can't be friends anymore if you take Randle that high, but otherwise it's a solid group.
Wide receiver: Emmanuel Sanders (3.08), Brandin Cooks (3.11), Kelvin Benjamin (3.12), DeAndre Hopkins (4.02), Jordan Matthews (4.03), Andre Johnson (4.08)
Another good bunch, with Hopkins being a flat-out steal if he makes it here.
I also did three mocks from the 12 spot using FantasyPros' Mock Draft Simulator. The players I got were:
Team 1: Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Lamar Miller, Alfred Morris
Team 2: Dez Bryant, C.J. Anderson, Lamar Miller, DeAndre Hopkins
Team 3: Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Alfred Morris, Melvin Gordon
I like Team 2 the best, but would take any one of them.
Only Gronk and Jimmy Graham should be gone by Pick 36 among the tight ends, with Luck, Rodgers and maybe Peyton Manning swiped at QB.
Though I'm partial to wideouts, my dream realistic front four from the 12 hole is probably Julio, Hill, Ingram and either Sanders or Hopkins. However, if I start Julio/OBJ or Dez and one of those guys, I might pass out and not care who my running backs are. No matter how you slice it, you'll be in good shape. If you get an early pick and can trade down before your draft, please do so. This season, last is best, or close to it.
Good luck!
Also Read: What-if you are drafting first in a 12-team league?
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