Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: new RB vs. WR vs. ADP analysis
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In a continued effort to help owners prepare and construct their fantasy football draft strategy, I thought it would be a fun exercise to once again chop up the “Do I take a running back or a wide receiver in the first few rounds?” conversation.
Below is a hypothetical PPR-draft board. It’s a fun table because fantasy football is first and foremost, ya know, fun.
The player draft positions in the hypothetical 12-team snake are optimized by selecting the top PPR scorers - when you combine the 59 RBs / WRs who averaged double-digit fantasy points - last season. For example, Antonio Brown’s 22.52 FPPG ranked first among RB/WR last season. So, he was the top overall pick and John Halpin pumps his fist in celebration. Note: all players’ point totals divided by 17 games.
Quarterbacks weren’t included in the nearly five-round snake draft. The argument as to why you can wait on a quarterback in your fantasy football draft was explained in a previous draft strategy feature. Gronk and Co. could have been added to the mix, but wanted to focus on RB/WR in this exercise.
Where to begin the extrapolation of awesomeness from this 100% hypothetical draft?!
I'd really like to play in this league where you draft players and use last year's stats. https://t.co/QheWW2E6iT
— Patrick Mayo (@ThePME) August 25, 2015
Shaddup, Mayo! I said it was hypothetical! Now, where was I?
Seriously though, this optimized 2014 RB/WR draft is fun to scan. To be fair, some of these players listed failed to provide consistent fantasy production and their highest highs cooked their fantasy books. But the more I looked at these average points per game, this struck me:
Antonio Brown averaged 22.52 FPPG and was the No. 1 pick, while No. 7 pick Marshawn Lynch averaged 17.78 FPPG – a difference of 4.74 fantasy points (rounded). Could you lose a game by 4.74? Damn skippy!
To pivot the RB vs. WR conversation and analyze from a different angle, take a look at the table below. We used Fantasy Football Calculator Average Draft Position (ADP= approx. 900 mock drafts August 24-25) combined with PPR totals from 2014 rather than 2015 projections. Why? More below.
Although we don't have complete 2014 resumes from Adrian Peterson and Brandin Cooks, the wide receiver believers edged the running back promoters 7-5. Looking at that data, every fantasy owner preparing for a draft should ask three pertinent questions:
If you believe fewer than 19 running backs will hit the double-digit PPG threshold, I believe you should concentrate on running backs in at least one of the first two rounds.
If you think more than 40 wide receivers will hit the double-digit PPG threshold, I believe the focus on at least one running back in the first two rounds remains wise.
Is this rationale bible? No. But it’s taking what we KNOW not what some have PROJECTED and asking the right questions heading into fantasy football drafts the next two weeks.
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