Every Friday, the FOX Sports Fantasy team will tackle a fantasy football question for the upcoming season.
For this week, we'll talk first round draft candidates that scare us and the picks we love.
1. Which player with a first round ADP are you least excited to draft?
John Halpin (@jhalpin37): Adrian Peterson, without a doubt. There's no way I'm spending a first-round pick on a 31-year-old running back with 2,381 career carries. I said the same thing last year, and he led the NFL in rushing. Fine - I missed. But I'd rather be a year too early on a guy like Peterson, and he's far too big of a risk to pick so early.
Ryan Fowler (@FOXSportsFowler): Tough question. Assuming most leagues are PPR-scoring, I'm excited to learn DeAndre Hopkins' fantasy ceiling, but don't believe adding Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller to the equation help him reach it in their first season together. His top-tier efforts with sub-standard quarterbacks last season were also a byproduct of an Arian Foster-less backfield and oft-injured WR2/3. Will Fuller, Cecil Shorts, Braxton Miller will also take targets away.
Note: I think most believe the right answer is Adrian Peterson.
D.J. Foster (@FOXSportsFoster): Rob Gronkowski. His big frame makes him a great target, both for quarterbacks and cheap-shotting defensive backs. Although he's played in 15 games in each of the last two seasons, we've seen the injuries pile up over the years. With Brady's suspension and some surprising depth at the tight end position, I'll let someone else test the Madden cover curse in the first round.
Adam Meyer (@FOXSportsMeyer): David Johnson. Yes, he was on the roster for plenty of fantasy football championships, but I'm not sure he's "first-round" quality, yet. In their last three games, the Cardinals threw the ball 73.5 percent of the time. Plus, Arizona still has Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington on the roster.
2. Which player currently being drafted outside of the first round has the best chance to eventually move into the first round?
Halpin: Jordy Nelson fits the bill here. His early ADP is in Round 2, but as the summer progresses, he'll move up if he shows that he's back to full speed. Nelson averaged 91-1,417-10.5 in 2013-14, and could be a monster once again. Aaron Rodgers missed him, didn't he?
Fowler: If we're sticking with PPR settings, owners are fading first-round running backs if they can help it. So, those owners who are really stoked about June's first-round wide receivers, should also consider the Chargers' Keenan Allen. Jordy Nelson is on the door step to round one, but Allen at WR-17 is a delicious value. If Ryan Fitzpatrick re-signs with the Jets, Brandon Marshall's / Eric Decker's ADP will soar, too.
Foster: You're looking for someone who is going to have their situation change drastically, and that could easily happen for Brandon Marshall. If Fitzpatrick comes back, Marshall's 109 catches, 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns last year are going to look awfully appealing at the end of the first round, especially once the top few running backs are off the board.
Meyer: I own a lot of Lamar Miller stock in 2015 and will do the same in 2016. Some will be sour on how he was under-utilized in Miami, but Miller is in Houston now. Arian Foster was a top-five running back, when healthy, and now that role will transfer into Miller's account. He currently has an ADP of 15th overall, but I could see fantasy owners taking him with the 12/13 swing in the snake draft.
3. If you could handpick the draft order, which pick position would you most want? Least want?
Halpin: I usually prefer a pick near the bottom of Round 1 in a serpentine drafts, but this year a top-three spot intrigues me. I'd get one of the Antonio-Julio-OBJ trio, and follow up with a guy like Mike Evans or Keenan Allen in Round 2. I love Allen, see a TD-related rebound coming for Evans, and could even live with Mark Ingram or Brandin Cooks (if PPR) at the end of the second. Filling my first three slots with something like OBJ-Allen-Cooks might make me hyperventilate.
Foster: I love pick 3, as the tough choice between Brown-Jones-Beckham will be made for me and I can still likely grab two more receivers (Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks?) on swing back. The Zero RB strategy is risky, but I'm comfortable doing it from that slot. Really, I'm hoping for any pick in the top-6. I don't love what I'm seeing after that.
Meyer: Give me any pick in the top seven. Lately, I've loved the strategy of taking a wide receiver in the first round and then adding running backs as needed. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins are high on my draft board. However, I couldn't turn down Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, or Adrian Peterson either.
As for the spot I'd want the least, 8-11. If those seven names are off the board, I would be completely stumped.
