National Football League

Fantasy Fox: Lessons learned from 7 drafts in 11 days

Published Sep. 1, 2014 12:41 p.m. ET

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Here are eight random observations, or themes that consistently held true throughout my recent run of seven fantasy drats in 11 days (with two more coming on Tuesday night).

The following bits cover standard-scoring and PPR drafts:

1. LeSean McCoy was either the 1st or 2nd overall pick in all but one of the seven drafts; and the lone exception involved a first-time fantasy drafter -- and unabashed Packers fan -- grabbing Aaron Rodgers with the top pick.

For what it's worth, that quirky PPR draft involved Rodgers, Adrian Peterson (not a dominant PPR asset), McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Demaryius Thomas rounding out the top five.

2. The FOX Sports' expert draft (PPR) had a major curveball at the end of Round 1, with Arian Foster (12th overall) getting selected ahead of tailbacks like Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Montee Ball, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell and elite-level receivers like Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Antonio Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb (100-catch potential) and A.J. Green -- who notched 13 games of eight-plus targets last year, along with an NFL-best 13 outings of seven catches, 95 yards and/or one touchdown.

3. Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton has been woefully under-drafted in all seven leagues -- only once breaking the top 40 (thanks to yours truly) ... and sometimes sliding late into Round 7.

Here are some of Hilton's Year 2 highlights with the Colts:

a) Hilton racked up team-highs with catches (82), receiving yards (1,083) and receiving TDs (five) -- superbly assuming the No. 1 receiver role for the injured Reggie Wayne (torn ACL in October).

b) In PPR circles, Hilton notched 10 games of eight or more targets during the regular season. Within that span, he also crossed the PPR-elite threshold of seven catches, 95 yards and/or one touchdown six times.

c) Hilton was a monster during the AFC playoffs, amassing 17 catches, 24 targets, 327 yards and two touchdowns over two games.

4. In a PPR draft, don't pass on a chance to land Marshawn Lynch as your third tailback. There's way too much depth at receiver, tight end and quarterback to feel guilty about a targets-deficient asset with three-year averages of 1,500-plus total yards and 13 touchdowns as a flex option.

(In the CBS experts' draft, a PPR/IDP affair of 28 loooooooooooong rounds, I grabbed Skittles as my RB3, at No. 26 overall. He'll likely assume the 'flex' option for much of the season, especially when Jamaal Charles and Le'Veon Bell are healthy.)

5. It's sometimes risky to have too much top-shelf depth at running back in leagues where the other owners seldom execute trades -- especially with 10-teamers. Barring major injury, a high-ceiling asset like Rashad Jennings (my RB5) might never get off the bench more than twice this season ... and no one would likely pursue his services, via trade.

(Incidentally, Jennings lags behind tailbacks Le'Veon Bell, Zac Stacy, Montee Ball and C.J. Spiller.)

Of course, QB Matt Ryan (three-year averages: 4,470 yards passing, 29 TDs) fell into my lap at Round 8 for this same draft ... making it hard to feel "guilty" about claiming Jennings (capacity for 1,200 total yards/8-9 TDs) in the previous round.

6. For my only IDP draft (which also doubled as a PPR), there was a 42-slot gap between the first linebacker taken (Luke Kuechly -- Round 6) and the first defensive back off the board (Vikings safety Harrison Smith -- Round 10).

Which brings us to this: It's tough to get excited about cornerbacks in the fantasy realm when DeAngelo Hall holds far greater value than Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman or Darrelle Revis -- universally known as the NFL's best real-world shutdown corners.

The reason for that: It's difficult for Peterson, Sherman or Revis to collect fantasy points when opposing quarterbacks avoid them at all cost.

7. Receiver/kick returner/in-space dynamo Cordarrelle Patterson was consistently a Round 4/5 pick in the six drafts, a nod to his absurd athleticism and high ceiling for 1,000 total yards/double-digit touchdowns.

But let's keep this in mind: As a rookie, Patterson (45 catches, 469 yards, nine total TDs) had 13 games of just three catches or less ... which puts plenty of fantasy pressure on him to find the end zone every Sunday (various ways).

Otherwise, it could be a wasteful selection for the early rounds.

8. Maurice Jones-Drew was selected ahead of Raiders teammate Darren McFadden (487 total yards, five TDs last year) in all six drafts.

It's likely due to a combination of three factors:

a) of his previous five seasons with Jacksonville (2009-13), MJD racked up at least 14 starts four times.

Plus, he notched 1,600 total yards three times in that span.

b) McFadden, in turn, has never played more than 13 games in any of his six NFL campaigns.

c) MJD's 40-yard touchdown run against the Packers (Week 3 of the preseason) remains fresh in the minds of drafters.

Jay Clemons, the 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year (Fantasy Sports Writers Association), can be reached via Twitter, day or night, at @FOX_JayClemons.