From 2014 to now: Coppolella and Hart's rapid rebuild
The Atlanta Braves entered the 2014 season coming off of a 96-win campaign and National League East division title. Fast-forward two years and that same Braves roster is a distant memory.
The Braves were expected to be a strong contender in 2014 after their success in '13 despite losing key free agents Brian McCann and Tim Hudson. With a young core of Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Evan Gattis and Justin Upton fortifying the middle of the lineup, Atlanta was expected to score plenty of runs to combine with a deep rotation of Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Alex Wood and Brandon Beachy.
That didn't work out. While the lineup's core produced as expected, the offense struggled to put the ball in play and finished the season 29th in runs scored. The pitching staff received fantastic production from Teheran and Wood, but lost Medlen and Beachy to injury before the season. The end result was a team that underperformed and found itself sitting below .500 to finish the season.
Once the Braves were mathematically eliminated from postseason play in late September, general manager Frank Wren was fired and John Hart was named the interim GM.
Wren's freefall was quick. He was praised just a year before for the contract extensions handed to Freeman, Teheran, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel and his team looked like it was set for a long run of success — although those deals were overshadowed by costly contracts given to Dan Uggla and Melvin Upton. Those busts fell in line with two previous failed free-agent signings by Wren: Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami.
Another huge knock on Wren's tenure was the complete deterioration of the farm system. In Wren's first few seasons after taking over as the GM in 2007, the Braves system rose from 15th in 2007 (Baseball America) all the way to third in 2011. But due to weak drafts and failure to acquire young talent, that ranking fell back to 15th in 2012 and 26th in 2013 and '14.
Wren's regime was able to hit on some picks through the years, including Kimbrel in 2008, Minor in 2009, Simmons and Gattis in '10 and Wood and Shae Simmons in '12, but there was a lack of depth across the board. Three drafts (2011, 2013-14) combine to produce just two players in the Braves' current top 20 prospects (MLB.com) and two others who have reached the big-league roster.
Overall, just four of the current top 20 were drafted or signed during Wren's tenure (Ozhaino Albies, Lucas Sims, Braxton Davidson, and Jason Hursh), meaning 16 of the top 20 have been acquired in one year's time.
Along for the ride during the tumultuous leadership of Wren was new general manager John Coppolella. Coppolella was promoted to assistant GM in 2012, and once Wren was fired two years later, he was depended upon heavily in organizational decisions with Hart.
Under Coppolella and Hart's leadership, the franchise's plan quickly shifted direction.
Of the 44 players that touched the field for the Braves in 2013, 39 of them are no longer on the current Braves' roster — 16 of them were traded, 15 exited in free agency and eight were released. Twenty-nine of those 39 players have gone on to play on other MLB rosters and have combined for 18.1 wins above replacement with other teams.
The five players that remain are Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Christian Bethancourt, who received one at-bat in 2013, and Joey Terdoslavich — and the Braves have yet to bite on Minor's current arbitration price. Those five have combined for 11.5 wins above replacement since 2013, with Freeman and Teheran accounting for 11.7. (The other three have combined to produce below replacement level.)
While the amount of production lost is obvious, the general plan has been in place all along: Replenish the farm system to build for future success while likely undermining current success. And it's worked thus far. After taking over the 26th-ranked farm system, the Braves' moves last offseason pushed them forward to 15th entering the 2015 season. Once ESPN Insider Keith Law's midseason farm system rankings came out in July 2015, the Braves had moved all the way to second behind only the Red Sox.
Since those rankings were released, the Braves have acquired top-10 organizational prospects Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis, while Boston recently traded a few of its top-ranked prospects to acquire Kimbrel.
Heading into 2016, Hart and Coppolella have achieved what was probably their No. 1 goal over the span of two offseasons: Build the best farm in baseball.
It goes without saying that trading away established stars comes with extreme risk.
Andrelton Simmons is one of the top shortstops in baseball with multiple years of team control: Traded.
Jason Heyward remains one of the best all-around players in baseball and could have made a huge impact on the 2015 team: Traded
Evan Gattis is a powerful right-handed bat that was desperately needed in the Braves' power-deficient lineup: Traded. Justin Upton was the Braves' best power bat: Traded.
Alex Wood: Traded. Craig Kimbrel: Traded.
It looks crazy during the first glance, but every move goes along with the plan.
Simmons is incredible defensively, but his offense may have already hit the ceiling, and top prospect Ozhaino Albies is waiting in the wings with a potential 2017 arrival at shortstop. Coppolella figures Aybar will fill the gap for a year without much of a drop-off.
Kimbrel is a closer. It's that simple. Their value isn't high enough to overpay for, and when a deal is offered with substantial return, you take it. Not only did the Braves receive Matt Wisler (MLB's 34th-ranked prospect at time of trade), they unloaded Melvin Upton's contract in the process. Cameron Maybin becoming a serviceable center fielder last season was just another pleasant surprise.
Gattis just didn't fit in the NL. He wasn't good enough in left field, and he wasn't going to last at catcher. While the return so far hasn't looked overwhelming with Rio Ruiz struggling in the minors and Mike Foltynewicz shifting between the big-league club and Triple-A, the chance was worth taking. Gattis had a fairly good year hitting in Houston, but he was used strictly as a designated hitter and still only managed 99 weighted runs created plus (wRC+).
If Foltynewicz, Ruiz or pitching prospect Andrew Thurman become productive regulars for the Braves, the trade was a steal.
Heyward and Upton are legitimate All-Star outfielders, but with both hitting free agency after 2015 — and with the Braves' front office failing to give Heyward a respectable extension offer — there was a good chance neither would re-sign with Atlanta, and the Braves would be left with nothing more than supplemental picks in the draft. Instead, Hart and Coppolella jumped the gun and received value they wanted ... notably Shelby Miller, Jace Peterson, pitching prospects Tyrell Jenkins and Max Fried and outfield prospect Mallex Smith.
Now that Upton and Heyward are hitting the free agent markets expecting huge financial windfalls, the Braves are sitting in a much better position with a top-of-the-rotation starter and a few prospects who have major potential and could even see the field in 2016.
The trade that is the most questionable looking back is the deal that sent Alex Wood and top prospect Jose Peraza to the Dodgers for Hector Olivera. While it doesn't necessarily fit the mold of Coppolella and Hart's plan, there were valid reasons. Wood had been declining in some areas, most notably in forcing a high swing-and-miss rate. Peraza had been dropping down most expert's prospect rankings as he struggled to hit Triple-A pitchers and wasn't getting on base enough.
The thought was that as each day passed, Wood and Peraza's value decreased, and the Braves received an opportunity to get an international star they attempted to sign in the first place. The trade can go three ways:
If there's a trade that the Braves could potentially look back on and reasonably regret, it's that one.
As it stands now, the Braves aren't in good shape for 2016. Ninety losses could easily be in the forecast once again. But along with that current struggle is a farm system that has as much depth and talent as any in baseball. All of the depth and talent in the system creates an enormous amount of leverage for Coppolella in Atlanta. The exact vision remains unclear, but he has the tools to paint it to his liking.
The Braves didn't have to do this rebuild. They were a good MLB team that likely would've been a contender for the postseason in 2015, but wouldn't have won anything important. The underlying problem is that the Braves had become a middling franchise. They featured good talent at the top with very little potential at the bottom. With each 85-win season comes no World Series ring and an average draft pick. Coppolella and Hart have changed that.
It will be ugly for now, but at least on the horizon lies the potential for something greater than first-round playoff exits and annual disappointment.
