Heisman Forecast: Louisville's schedule may test Lamar Jackson's lead
Another week, and another reason why it's Louisville's Lamar Jackson and then everyone else in this Heisman Trophy race.
On pace to shattering Colt Brennan's single-season touchdown record of 63 set back in 2006 and have the second most yards in history at the time of voting, the only thing potentially standing in the Cardinals quarterback's way -- outside of a turn for the worst in performance or more L's -- is the lack of truly meaningful games over the next five weeks.
This weekend the Cardinals play Virginia, followed by Boston College, Wake Forest, now unranked Houston and Kentucky. That's a pair of two-loss teams (the Demon Deacons and Cougars), two that are under .500 (Cavaliers and Eagles) and one that's a game above .500 (Wildcats).
We'll certainly be paying attention. Jackson has guaranteed that in ranking second in FBS in points (204), total offense (438.4 yards per game) and seventh in rushing (129.7). But it creates an interesting dynamic.
Tim Tebow in 2007 is the last winner to play a schedule that was devoid of a Top 25 opponent over the last month of the season. He, though, at least closed out October of that year by playing No. 18 Georgia.
With the Cougars suffering their second loss last weekend vs. SMU, and a Louisville a long shot to make the ACC Championship Game, Jackson and Co. are left with the possibility of having played their last ranked team Oct. 1 (Clemson).
That's seven games, an eternity for the likes of the Tigers' Deshaun Watson, Ohio State's J.T. Barrett, Michigan's Jabrill Peppers, Florida State's Dalvin Cook and Washington's Jake Browning to make their cases while playing ranked teams.
As we head into the last weekend of October, Lamar Jackson has been that much better than everyone else. The true test will be whether he can keep the throttle down and keep everyone's attention with a schedule that does him no favors.
Before we dive into this week's Risers and Sliders, here's where the Forecaster's ballot stands heading into Halloween Weekend (all treats, and no tricks to be sure).
1. Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville, Soph.
2. Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson, Jr.
3. Jake Browning, QB Washington, Soph.
RISERS
1. Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson, Jr.
It's now or never for Watson. He's built some momentum with three 300-yards games in the last four outings, and has an opportunity on a prime time stage to impress against No. 12 Florida State and its rejuvenated defense. The Tigers last won in Tallahassee in 2006, but they've already won at Auburn for the first time since 1950 and snapped a skid at Georgia Tech that dated back to 2003. But the bigger question is if Watson delivers a drought-ending win, can he match his measuring stick in Jackson, who had 362 yards against the Seminoles on Sept. 17?
2. Jake Browning, QB Washington, Soph.
He hasn't thrown an interception in three games and in that span has tossed 12 TD passes. Like Watson, Browning has a chance to impress this weekend against 17th-ranked Utah, and if what UCLA's Mike Fafaul did against the Utes is any indication, Browning could be in for a big day. The Bruins QB threw for 464 yards and five TDs in a 52-45 loss, and this Utah defense has already given up 306 yards and four scores to Cal's Davis Webb.
3. Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma, Sr.
He's back. Look, it's unlikely that Mayfield can even get to the ceremony given the way he and the Sooners performed against Houston and Ohio State, but he's coming off a 545-yard, seven-TD day vs. Texas Tech and has a pair of Top-10 opponents remaining in No. 8 Baylor on Nov. 12 and No. 10 West Virginia on Nov. 19. Things at least figure to get interesting for Mayfield over the next two games.
SLIDERS
1. Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State, Jr.
This isn't necessarily about how Cook will perform against the Tigers -- write it down: after rushing for 194 yards and a TD last year, he'll have another showcase game -- but the Power 5 conference's leader in yards from scrimmage will be hurt by the Seminoles' season as a whole. Just three times since 1998 has anyone claimed the award with three losses, and a defeat at the hands of the Tigers would be Florida State's third. He has an argument as the nation's top running back, but that may not be enough to get him to New York this year.
2. J.T. Barrett, QB Ohio State, Jr.
He's no longer in this voter's top three, though he has a chance to recover with No. 7 Nebraska and No. 2 Michigan still to play. Barrett's candidacy is tied with the Buckeyes' CFP hopes as he just wasn't spectacular enough over the first six games to withstand a setback for his team. The recovery begins this weekend against Northwestern and its 72nd-ranked defense, but it’s going to take a starring role against the Cornhuskers on Nov. 5 to truly get Barrett back into the mix.
3. Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech QB Jr.
In a loss to Oklahoma, Mahomes was one off the FBS record for attempts in a game (88) and tied for the most yardage through the air in a single game with 734. But the optimum word there is loss, as the Red Raiders have suffered three straight and have a difficult road over the next five games with TCU, Texas, Oklahoma and Baylor (with 1-6 Iowa State sprinkled in). The stats are there, but that's not enough to overcome Texas Tech's overall product.
Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney and Facebook. His book, 'Tales from the Atlanta Braves Dugout: A Collection of the Greatest Braves Stories Ever Told,' is out now, and 'The Heisman Trophy: The Story of an American Icon and Its Winners' will be released Nov. 22, 2016.
