Holland doesn't expect to do much in trade, free-agent market
Christmas in July is a thing of the past for Detroit Red Wings fans.
Once upon a time round July 1, the start of open season on NHL free-agents, General Manager Ken Holland would dress up in his red and white Santa outfit and load up that big gift bag with a big-name player or two and Wings fans would be hyperventilating about another Stanley Cup run as they stampeded to the box office for season tickets. Everybody wins.
Those days are over -- at least in Detroit. A decade into the league's salary-cap era, things have changed dramatically. For starters, general managers are getting a lot smarter about locking up their core players to long-term deals in an effort to keep them out of free agency. And managing payroll has become as much art as mathematics, especially when the cap inches up marginally -- as it did this year to $71.4 million -- because of the weak Canadian dollar.
That's not to say there isn't some talent in this year's market the Wings couldn't use, like Washington's point-producing, right-shot defenseman Mike Green. But the pickings are slim and the money players like Green will command on the open market is not. Therein lies Holland's dilemma.
At the top of his own short wish list, Holland would love to add a defenseman with Green's offensive acumen. But Green, 29, was paid $6.083 million last year -- and he's probably going to get a raise in a long-term deal.
A contract like that would have far-reaching implications on the deals Holland has to make with his own players in the coming months. Then he mentions the names of Justin Abdelkader and Darren Helm, who could be unrestricted free agents a year from now. And Danny DeKeyser, Riley Sheahan and Petr Mrazek, all restricted free agents after this season. Core players, all of them, who are expected to help form the nucleus of this club for years.
"If we're looking to add a piece that's going to have a significant cap hit, then it's going to have an effect on the players I just rattled off," Holland said.
Of equal concern, if the Wings decided to add such a defenseman or, less likely, a top-six forward: Wouldn't that limit opportunities for some of the prospects the Wings have been developing for years, who are just now knocking on the door at the NHL?
Winger Teemu Pulkkinen is one of them. So, too, are defensemen Alexey Marchenko, Xavier Ouellet, Nick Jensen and Ryan Sproul. All of them are out of options, meaning they'd have to pass through waivers to be assigned to Grand Rapids, the Wings' top minor-league affiliate.
Pulkkinen, who scored all those goals for Jeff Blashill in Grand Rapids the past two seasons, isn't going anywhere -- especially now that Blashill is coaching in Detroit. And one of either Marchenko and Jensen -- both right-hand shots -- or Ouellet, is destined to stick in Detroit when training camp breaks this fall.
One other major factor heading into training camp is the health of Johan Franzen, out most of last season with another concussion.
"Where's Mule going to be in September?" Holland asks. "Certainly we expect him to be healthy. Everything I'm told is that he's making good progress. He's healthy. He's practicing. We expect him to be ready."
There's the top-six forward who, when he's right, is better than anyone available in free agency.
By Holland's count, the Wings have 14 forwards, seven defenseman and two goaltenders -- all of whom helped Detroit earn 100 points last season and scare the beejesus out of Stanley Cup finalist Tampa Bay in the opening round of the playoffs.
If anything, the Wings have an abundance of NHL-ready young players, and it's unlikely that all of them will be able to play in Detroit. That's why Holland may be busier trying to make trades than he is shopping the free-agent market.
"I'll explore trades, but to make an upgrade it's tough to match up money and identical needs," he said. "I'm exploring it -- if there's a player with a dimension who can make us better."
Bottom line: The Wings are a young team on the rise energized by a new coach. There are worse things Holland can do than stand pat with this roster.
Top five free agents on July 1:
D Mike Green, 29. A prolific right-shot point-producer in Washington for 10 seasons, but his numbers have been declining in recent seasons, and he's looking for a raise from the $6-plus million he was paid last season. Should attract the most interest and could be among the first signed.
D Cody Franson, 27. Another right-shot defenseman the Wings covet. He's averaged more than 40 points per game over an 82-game season in about 21 minutes per game of ice time. And he's looking for a big raise over the $3.3 million he made last year with Toronto and Nashville.
G Anti Niemi, 31. Dallas just acquired his rights over the weekend, but he still may decide to test free agency. He had a .916 save percentage with San Jose, which paid him $3.8 million last season.
C Antoine Vermette, 32. A multi-purpose forward acquired by Chicago before the trade deadline. His value went up after he scored two huge game-winning goals for the Stanley Cup champs. He made $3.75 million last season.
LW Matt Belesky, 26. Set a personal high with 22 goals last season to go with just 10 assists (and GMs are leery about forwards with such "Cy Young" numbers) in 65 games with Anaheim. His previous career high was nine goals the previous season. Is he a one-year wonder, or will he be worth the big bump he's looking for after being paid $1.35 million last season?
