Indians at crossroads of good pitching, poor defense
The Cleveland Indians came into the season as a favorite sleeper team among baseball analysts. The year however, has been a forgettable one for the Indians, a team that hasn’t seen .500 since their fourth game of the season. The immediate future is filled with question marks as well.
The Indians have seen some bright spots. Going into the break they had four starting pitchers who had recorded 100 or more strikeouts, no team in baseball has ever accomplished that. As a whole their pitching staff was leading the American League in K/9 and FIP as of July 19, they also started that day four games under .500 and 11.5 games out of first place.
The bullpen has been good too. Chris Antonetti and company may have found their version of Wade Davis in righty Zach McAllister. Since moving to the bullpen in 2014, McAllister is seeing spikes in his velocity and a strikeout rate that has jumped by more than 3.3 K/9 as a reliever.
Cleveland’s current starting staff is one the mid-market Indians should be able to keep together for at least another four years and maybe beyond. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have team friendly deals that run through 2021 and 2020 respectively, including team options. Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer each will have fours years of arbitration eligibility that run through 2020. Cody Anderson is a rookie.
The Indians will have a good starting pitching staff for the foreseeable future. The bad news is on the other side of the ball and here’s where the Indians are in a pinch.
Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are the team’s highest paid players in 2015 at $15M and $13.5M. They’ll be the team’s highest paid players again in 2016, eating up $29M between them. Swisher has had a difficult time staying healthy and productive. Bourn has seen a steady decline in his production the past few seasons and really isn’t an everyday player anymore at age 32. Together they have taken up approximately 1/3 of Cleveland’s 2015 payroll and will do so again next year. That’s a problem.
As the Indians develop into a pitching centric team, they have another problem: defense. Carlos Santana is the team’s fourth highest player this year at $6.2M and likely will be next year as well with an $8.45M salary. Santana, the team’s primary first basemen is a former catcher who the Indians tried at third base. First is the best place to hide him but as someone close to the team told me recently “you’re holding your breath every time a ball is hit to him, hoping he catches it.” Santana continues to get on base at terrific pace (.368 over the past three seasons) but the plus/minus when you consider the defense for the team’s fourth highest paid player is not working for the type of team the Indians are morphing into. A trade to a team looking for a DH would be a smart move for Cleveland. Teams like the Tigers and Astros who are dealing with injuries could be a fit, so could the Angels.
Brandon Moss is in right field for the Indians this season and is under control in 2016 before he becomes a free agent. I believe Cleveland would love to move him. He’s making $6.5M this year and will see a substantial raise in 2016. Moss’s batting average (.218) and OBP (.294) have been a disappointment in Cleveland. He’ll likely hit 25-28 home runs but with below average defense that’s not what the Indians need right now. If they can find a taker before the trading deadline Moss will be somewhere else the reminder of this season.
The bright side is on the left side of the infield with rookies Francisco Lindor (21) at SS and Giovanny Urshela (23) at 3B. Terry Francona told me Urshela reminds him of Mike Lowell at 3B, great defense with maybe not the greatest feet. He sees high upside with the glove. Lindor was the Baseball Prospectus #4 overall prospect in MLB coming into 2015. The track records on both of these guys don’t suggest powerful offense but defense is more important when you consider the big picture with this team and both appear to fit well in Cleveland’s future.
Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes and Michael Brantley are the cornerstones in the lineup for Cleveland both now and going forward. Center field, right field and first base are areas the Indians need to address. Current contracts along with financial limitations may prevent them from doing so, at least for 2016. The focus might have to be 2017, but you hate to see the Indians waste another year of good pitching.
The mission, though, should be clear. The pitching is there and will be for a few more years. The defense has to improve, and in this generation’s version of Major League Baseball, that is the best chance to bring a winner to Cleveland.
