Welcome to the Big Ten championship edition of the Badgers mailbag. It's Wisconsin-Ohio State week, and Badgers fans seem to be feeling pretty optimistic. So do Vegas oddsmakers, by the way, which list Wisconsin as four-point favorites in some circles.
In this week's mailbag, we discuss where Wisconsin would be if quarterback Joel Stave had started from the outset, possible bowl destinations if the Badgers beat the Buckeyes and hypothetical College Football Playoff scenarios.
Thanks to everyone for submitting a question this week. Look for a link to next week's mailbag late Saturday night following the Big Ten title game. Let's get to it:
Q: I don't mean to nitpick, but if I understand correctly, Joel Stave didn't develop his issues early in the season until after Tanner McEvoy was named the starter. Am I wrong to wonder where we could be if the coaching staff had just started Stave from the beginning? -- Todd, Mooresville, N.C.
A: You're not wrong to wonder at all. In fact, I'd venture to guess many Badgers fans are wondering the exact same thing, especially considering how well Stave has taken over the reins to this offense since coming back.
Perhaps we'll never know everything that went into the decision to start McEvoy from the outset. I said then and I'll continue to say now that Stave looked like the better quarterback between the two during the portions of fall practice that were open to the media. Unless McEvoy really wowed coaches during closed practices and scrimmages, it's possible they simply rolled the dice with McEvoy with the thought process that he already was an excellent runner and would simply develop into a better thrower.
Obviously, that gamble failed. While McEvoy has been great at creating plays with his legs, his passing has left something to be desired all season. Would Stave have completed 8 of 24 passes for 50 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions against LSU? Would Stave have thrown those same three interceptions against Northwestern if that wasn't his first game action in more than nine months?
You could say Wisconsin wouldn't be where it is today without Melvin Gordon, and that's certainly true. But I'd argue Stave's resurgence has been equally important. What good is a tailback, after all, without a passing attack to keep defenses honest? Just look at the stats from the Northwestern game, when Gordon ran for 259 yards and the Badgers still lost.
Stave has been excellent since taking over as the starter. He is 7-0 and has completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 928 yards with seven touchdowns, one interception and a 145.3 passer rating. One can only speculate what Wisconsin's record would be with him under center from the start.
Q: If the Badgers win against Ohio State, what type of bowl game are we looking at? -- Renee, Milwaukee, Wis.
A: If Wisconsin beats Ohio State, the Badgers aren't getting into the four-team College Football Playoff, which includes the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl. If you're a college football traditionalist, it's a bit of a bummer that a Big Ten champion won't go to the Rose Bowl. Still, that leaves four other bowl games known as The New Year's Six: the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl and Peach Bowl.
All that's really known at this point is that the Orange Bowl will take the ACC champion. But since Florida State is likely headed to the playoff, Georgia Tech could slide into the Orange Bowl. Beyond that, bowls will choose at-large spots based on geography and matchups. Some other teams in the mix include Baylor or TCU, Ole Miss, Arizona, Mississippi State and Boise State, among others.
We'll have to wait and see how everything plays out. But if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten title game and stands 11-2 with eight consecutive victories, expect to see the Badgers in one of those four bowl games.
Q: Imagine you are on the selection committee and the following happens: Missouri upsets Alabama. K-State beats Baylor. Wisconsin beats Ohio State. Florida State and Oregon win. What are your four in the playoffs? -- Jason, Clearwater
A: Great question, Jason. If all four of those games played out the way you have them, we'd certainly have quite a mess on our hands with this inaugural four-team playoff. But let me take a swing at how things would play out:
1. Florida State; 2. Oregon; 3. TCU; 4 Alabama.
The Seminoles, even though they've been escaping lesser teams for weeks and Jameis Winston is handing out interceptions like candy, would be the only undefeated team in the FBS, so they go to the top. Oregon would have just one loss and eight consecutive victories, including a payback win against Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. Then, it gets tricky.
I'm putting TCU third because the Horned Frogs would be the only other team with just one loss. I realize that loss came in a shootout against Baylor. But TCU would have won seven straight games to close the regular season, and three of those have come against teams ranked at the time in the AP top 25. Baylor, meanwhile, looked unimpressive in a win against Texas Tech last week. And in your hypothetical situation, the loss to K-State would knock the Bears out. K-State is out because it lost to TCU and a four-loss Auburn team.
At No. 4, I'm keeping Alabama in here despite two losses. And no, this is not some SEC bias. Here's my reasoning. Alabama currently sits at No. 1 in the College Football Playoff top-25 ranking. And in the Sagarin Ratings, which help rate teams based on strength of schedule, it's not even close. Alabama is 8-1 against teams in the top 30 of the Sagarin Ratings. No other team has won more than five games against the top 30. The Crimson Tide would still be 8-2 with a loss to Missouri.
Here would be the records against the top 30 for the other two-loss teams in the mix in your hypothetical: Ohio State (1-1), Wisconsin (2-1), K-State (3-2), Michigan State (1-2), Mississippi State (4-2), Baylor (2-2) and Missouri (5-1). But let us never forget Missouri inexplicably lost to Indiana, which finished 4-8 this season.
That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
Q: How many players from the basketball team do you think will make it to the NBA? -- John, Madison
A: At this point, we can definitely say Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky will be playing in the NBA. Those are the easy answers. Many early mock-draft projections list Dekker being drafted ahead of Kaminsky in 2015, assuming Dekker wants to leave school a year early. NBADraft.net lists Dekker going No. 17 to Miami, with Kaminsky going at No. 31 to Philadelphia. ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman has Dekker at No. 12 to Denver and Kaminsky at No. 26 to Chicago.
Josh Gasser and Traevon Jackson figure to make nice overseas pros if they choose to pursue that avenue. Duje Dukan could play somewhere, as well.
As for the rest of the team, it's probably too early to tell. Are Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig future NBA players? Hayes has developed his game tremendously this season, and Koenig's passing is as good as anybody in the Big Ten. We'll simply have to wait and see what happens next.
Q: I hate dealing in ifs, but IF Wisconsin beat LSU or IF Wisconsin beat Northwestern, are they in the playoffs with a win over Ohio State? Try not to depress me too much. -- Eric, Sheboygan
A: Well, Wisconsin certainly would have a legitimate claim as the fourth-best team behind Alabama, Florida State and Oregon if the Badgers stood 12-1 with a Big Ten championship victory against Ohio State. When you consider that would mean Wisconsin would be one of only six power-five conference teams with one or zero losses, it would be an interesting argument.
If, hypothetically, Wisconsin had lost to LSU and beaten Northwestern, the Badgers would probably stand side-by-side with Ohio State as top-six teams in the College Football Playoff top-25 poll. Wisconsin ranked No. 17 in the AP poll the week of the Northwestern game and then tumbled all the way out of the top 25 after that loss. If Wisconsin and Ohio State met Saturday as two top-six teams, it would stand to reason the winner would deserve the No. 4 spot in the playoff, although TCU and Baylor also would be in the mix as one-loss teams.
I hope that doesn't depress you too much. But I probably already know the answer.
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