Kentucky Derby 2022 odds: Betting recap, Preakness look ahead for Rich Strike
By Andy Serling
FOX Sports Horse Racing Analyst
What a Kentucky Derby it was, as 80-1 long shot Rich Strike shocked everyone by taking down the 148th Run for the Roses.
Gambling-wise, there was $49,709,884 bet to win in the Kentucky Derby. Of that, $501,135 was bet on the winner Rich Strike (1%). By comparison, there was $8,009,739 bet to win on favored Epicenter (who finished second). That’s remarkable, especially in a race like the Kentucky Derby, where there is more random frivolous betting on long shots than in a "normal" race.
Rich Strike is the second-biggest long shot to win in Derby history. Donerail, who won in 1913, went off at 91-1. Wagering on long shots started in earnest and really took off in 2005 after Giacomo won at 50-1.
If you handicapped this race and were perplexed by the winner, don’t feel bad, you have a lot of company. Sometimes, crazy things happen in horse racing.
This year’s Run for the Roses was a fascinating race that ended confoundingly. Rich Strike, the winner, barely qualified for the race. There had to be a late defection for him even to participate. Anyone who tells you they have a logical explanation for his victory is pulling your leg unless they did this beforehand. Sometimes a horse inexplicably improves dramatically from one race to the next. The Derby is a 1 ¼-mile race, and none of the horses had ever raced that far before. Maybe all Rich Strike needed was some extra ground. I’m grasping at straws here. Everyone is.
What helped lead to the confounding finish? An extraordinarily fast early pace, which was a possibility we discussed in this space beforehand. If long shot Summer is Tomorrow was gunned out of the gate, which he was, the likelihood that the pace would be torrid was substantial.
The contender most compromised by this start was Messier. He was way too close to the lead early in the running and understandingly tired to finish 15th.
This also makes Epicenter’s second-place finish something close to remarkable. He was the first horse to move toward the lead in a meaningful way, and for him to almost win under those circumstances, is more than a little surprising. More on him later.
On the other hand, Zandon — one of the favorites — had no real excuse for finishing third. This isn't to say the horse didn’t run well, he just wasn’t quite good enough on Saturday.
The race got a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Speed figures are normalized numerical representations of final times based on relative track speeds, as it is rare for tracks to produce the exact final times from one day to the next. The Beyer Speed Figures are the brainchild of noted handicapper and racing writer Andy Beyer. To give this figure some perspective, recent Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify earned 105 and 103 Beyer figures for their Derby triumphs, respectively.
In his last race before the Derby, Rich Strike recorded his highest career Beyer figure of 84. Beyer believes the Derby winner will have trouble reproducing this figure in his upcoming races.
"The Derby result was the product of an insanely fast pace, and Rich Strike was the horse that made the last run," Mr. Beyer stated. "He’s unlikely to ever see a scenario like this again."
The winner is a crazy story. His rider, Sonny Leon, gave him a great ride. If he were a more highly regarded rider, people would be extolling his brilliance. He showed that if he has the right horse, he can deliver an exceptional ride even in the biggest race. Hats off to him.
Eric Reed, Rich Strike's trainer, had never started a horse in the Kentucky Derby. Reed was nowhere near a household name going into the race, though he is no neophyte, starting his first runner in 1983.
As for the winning horse, he was claimed — which in racing parlance basically means purchased — out of his second career start for $30,000. His share of the purse in the Derby is $1,860,000. Not a bad return, right? He’s better than crypto!
Looking ahead, Rich Strike will head to Baltimore to try to win the Preakness — the second leg of the Triple Crown — in two weeks. While it's hard to know who out of this year’s Derby will return to face him, I'm guessing Epicenter will be back. I’m also predicting Epicenter will beat him this time, but I never thought he would lose to him this time.
A new shooter could be the filly Secret Oath, who won the Kentucky Oaks, considered by some to be the Derby equivalent for fillies. Rachel Alexandra was the last filly to win the Oaks and participate in the Preakness. While she proved victorious, she was also a once-in-a-lifetime racehorse, something Secret Oath has not shown herself to be yet.
Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona — who makes the Morning Line for the New York Racing Association — believes Rich Strike will be somewhere between 6-1 and 10-1 in the Preakness.
Significantly lower than his 80-1 Derby odds.
"The Derby winner usually gets some base level of support in the second jewel of the Triple Crown," Aragona explained.
Stay tuned as we’re just getting started. We will be back to break down everything you need to know about the Preakness and how to wager on it. If that race turns out to be anything like the Derby, we are in for another fun day at the races.
Andy Serling is the Senior Racing Analyst for the New York Racing Association (NYRA) and appears regularly on America's Day at the Races/Saratoga Live on FOX Sports. He also analyzes the races daily on Talking Horses on the NYRA simulcast network among other duties covering Saratoga, Belmont and Aqueduct. In his slightly more respectable days, he traded options on the now-defunct American Stock Exchange. Follow him on Twitter @andyserling.
