Kentucky Derby 2022 odds: How to bet the Triple Crown Race, picks, lines
By Andy Serling
FOX Sports Horse Racing Analyst
Every year, people shift their attention to Louisville on the first Saturday in May for the Kentucky Derby. Whether you are a horse racing expert or betting for fun, there is plenty of action to go around in the first leg of the Triple Crown.
In my role as a public handicapper, I make thousands of picks throughout the year. A few are great, quite a bunch more are good, a few others are mediocre at best and some are bad. But those are the breaks of the game.
For better or worse, all of these picks are forgotten relatively quickly, as it is a "what have you done for me lately" world. However, each year one pick matters more than others; and that’s my Kentucky Derby pick.
So order up a mint julep while we jump into all things Derby, including my best bets and a long shot that might be worth a sprinkle.
The most essential thing for picking winners in horse races is figuring out how a race is likely to be run. Will there be a fast early pace that helps horses coming from behind? Or will the opposite be true, thereby favoring horses running near the lead?
Conventional wisdom suggests that in the Kentucky Derby — the only race in this country with as many as 20 runners — you would have enough horses with early speed to set the table for the ones behind. Surprisingly, this hasn't been the case in recent years. Let's relate that tidbit to this year’s Run for the Roses, and look at the major contenders.
Possible favorite Epicenter (7-2) breaks from post position three. While many people think post position is extremely important, I don't place a high value on it. Why? The Derby begins with a quarter-mile stretch before the first turn, which provides the runners a long straightaway to establish their position. Only the horses breaking from the posts toward the far outside run a significant risk of losing ground on the first of the two turns in the race.
Epicenter has early speed and could potentially lead every step of the way as he did in his second to last race — a win in the Risen Star. But he also has the added appeal of being able to sit behind horses and still produce a winning effort, like he did in his last race — the Louisiana Derby.
His rider, Joel Rosario, is one of the best in the world, winning the award as Top Jockey for 2021. Rosario won the Derby in 2013 with Orb. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, is also considered elite, setting the record for most career wins as a trainer last summer. The only blemish on Asmussen's record, if you could even call it that, is the lack of a Kentucky Derby win.
Epicenter will vie for favoritism with Zandon (3-1). Trainer Chad Brown, named Top Trainer four times in the last six years, was pleased Zandon drew post position 10. Brown, like Asmussen, has never won the Derby, but he's gotten close. His runner, Good Magic, finished second to eventual Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018.
Unlike Epicenter, Zandon does not possess early speed and will likely attempt to make his run from the back of the pack, which he brilliantly did in his last start while winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He has shown the ability to race well under adverse circumstances, which should serve him well in the 20-horse field Saturday.
RELATED: Everything you need to know about the Kentucky Derby
Taiba (12-1) and Messier (8-1) enter the Derby off a 1-2 finish in the Santa Anita Derby, and it was arguably as strong a Derby prep race as was run this season. Both horses are trained by Tim Yakteen, who has never started a horse in the Kentucky Derby.
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Bob Baffert trained these horses before the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert is currently serving a 90-day suspension through early July for using a prohibited substance in last year’s Kentucky Derby with winner Medina Spirit (the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission disqualified Medina Spirit in February). He is also serving a two-year suspension at Churchill Downs. Whether you love him or hate him, he is a big name in horse racing.
Given Baffert’s prior success in the Derby — six wins over 25 years — it is reasonable to ask if these horses can be expected to run as well for Yakteen. The "Baffert effect" doesn't concern me. In fact, considering how well the two horses ran their last time out and given Yakteen’s skills, I am picking Messier to win.
Messier helped set the table for Taiba’s Santa Anita Derby win by challenging the early leader Forbidden Kingdom, the favorite who paid a price and eventually finished last. That situation could be reversed in the Run for the Roses.
Speaking of Taiba, he is arguably the most interesting horse in this race, as he has raced only two times and won both. However, his lack of seasoning, especially relative to his toughest competition, could likely catch up to him in a competitive race like this one.
Mo Donegal is the likeliest winner among Todd Pletcher’s entrants (10-1). Pletcher is looking to win the Derby for the third time. He last won it in 2017 with Always Dreaming.
He comes into this race off a win in the Wood Memorial, New York’s final Derby prep. In that race, Mo Donegal received a brilliant rail skimming ride to edge out a victory under jockey Joel Rosario. For the Derby, however, Rosario has opted to ride Epicenter — the horse's regular rider. Mo Donegal picked up legendary rider Irad Ortiz for this race, his previous jockey. Ortiz previously won three straight Eclipse Awards as the nation’s leading rider before being unseated by Rosario last year.
A consternation to many is that Mo Donegal drew the one post, but that doesn't concern me as he possesses no early speed and may trail the field early. Drawing the inside is more bothersome if you battle for early position, and in this case, drawing the inside will only help him save valuable ground. The bigger issue is whether he will get enough early pace to make his closing run effectively. This question brings us to perhaps the most fascinating entrant in the race, Summer is Tomorrow.
While Summer is Tomorrow probably won't win this race, he's one of the most important members of the field. He is trained by Bhupat Seemar and ridden by Mickael Barzalona — neither of whom has ever competed in this race before — and he possesses more early speed than any other runner. If he's able to show this early lick, it can affect the front-running tendencies of Epicenter, Messier and Taiba while enhancing the chances of the come from behind runners like Zandon and Mo Donegal.
If you see horse No. 4 leading the field early, you might (at least briefly) be encouraged if you bet on either Zandon or Mo Donegal. However, I am skeptical that Summer is Tomorrow will be able to be as aggressive early against such a formidable field.
White Abarrio (10-1), the almost white horse that won the Florida Derby in his last start, will attract some betting support. The horse is ridden by Tyler Gafflione, who has limited Kentucky Derby experience but rides successfully with the best in the business. He is also trained by Saffie Joseph, who has only started one horse in the Derby, finishing eighth in 2020 with NY Traffic.
White Abarrio has earned his spot in the race, but I'm doubtful that he can be effective on Saturday. Instead, the horse from Florida that I want to use in my wagers is Simplification (20-1). Third in the Florida Derby — behind White Abarrio — after winning the Fountain of Youth in his previous start, he has shown to be more efficient racing from off the early lead than battling up front as he did in the Florida Derby. Given how contested that early pace was, he ran well to finish third and, in my opinion, ran a better race than White Abarrio who won the race. He will be ridden by Jose Ortiz — brother of Irad Ortiz — considered one of the best jockeys in the country.
One of the three entrants for Pletcher is Charge It (20-1), who finished second in the Florida Derby. He will be ridden by Luis Saez, who was the leading jockey at last summer’s prestigious Saratoga meet. He finished first in the Derby in 2019 aboard Maximum Security, only to be disqualified for a foul.
While a possible strong competitor in this race, I question whether he will improve with the added distance, and his somewhat immature tendencies are more than a passing concern. But never count out a horse trained by Pletcher, even this work in progress.
While I believe the possibility exists for a relatively early solid pace, recent history shows horses with at least some early speed have had an advantage over horses that lag towards the back.
This brings me to my best bets. Many horses have more than a reasonable chance to win the race, but you have to narrow it down eventually.
My picks in order are Messier, Simplification, Zandon and Epicenter.
I plan to bet Messier to win and bet him in the exacta with Simplification and Zandon. And if you are thinking about a long-shot outright wager, look no further than Simplification. Unlike the other horses who will have relatively short odds to win, he should be well over his 20-1 morning line, presenting some value.
As for betting, there are many ways to wager on the Kentucky Derby, so let's get into a bit of the horse racing gambling lingo.
Let's start with an exacta, which is a bet where you select the first two finishers in order. If you "box" the exacta, you are betting the two combinations of your two runners finishing first and second in either order. You can also box all three of those runners, or any three runners, and have the six combinations of two of those three horses running first and second.
There is also the trifecta, where you must select the first three finishers in order. Then you have the superfecta, where you must pick the first four finishers in order. Not easy to do with 20 horses in the Derby, but the payoffs can be significant.
If you are just looking to watch the race and have a rooting interest, I suggest a win bet, or maybe an exacta with your top two selections. Whatever makes you feel comfortable.
The Kentucky Derby is referred to as the most exciting two minutes in sports for a reason. It is the one race in America that draws the attention of millions. The Derby, affectionately known as the Run for the Roses, is true Americana. Tens of thousands of people dress up (think fancy hats and linen suits), drink mint juleps and generally soak up the event throughout the country. In parts of Australia, the Melbourne Cup is a national holiday. In America, we turn the Kentucky Derby into one.
Embrace it. Bet on it. Have fun.
Andy Serling is the Senior Racing Analyst for the New York Racing Association (NYRA) and appears regularly on America's Day at the Races/Saratoga Live on FOX Sports. He also analyzes the races daily on Talking Horses on the NYRA simulcast network among other duties covering Saratoga, Belmont and Aqueduct. In his slightly more respectable days, he traded options on the now-defunct American Stock Exchange. Follow him on Twitter @andyserling.
