MLS Playoff Preview: Favorites wary before conference finals
History tells a modest tale about two-legged MLS conference finals. MLS introduced the concept prior to the 2012 postseason. The decision to scrap the one-off conference finals addressed the success of lower-season teams in those affairs (both home teams advanced just three times during the nine years in that particularly format) and introduced parallels to the previous rounds.
The previous three postseasons constitute a small, meaningless sample size, but they present the perilous journey ahead for favorites FC Dallas and New York Red Bulls. First leg hosts boast a sterling 4-1-1 record since the format change. And the most worrisome part for those favorites? All four winners reached MLS Cup.
FCD and the Red Bulls hope to break that pattern this week. The burden falls on the two favorites to navigate their difficult trips in order to achieve the feat.
Eastern Conference: (2) Columbus Crew SC -- (1) New York Red Bulls (5:00p.m. ET, ESPN)
The focus here starts in the heart of midfield. Columbus wants to dictate the terms in possession and play through opposing teams. New York strives to win the ball high up the field and use its midfield three to pick those killers passes. The winner in this department likely dictates how the match unfolds.
Columbus must play cleanly out of the back in order to claim control of the game. The inherent risks in Crew SC’s expansive setup -- including the adventurous positions often taken by fullbacks Harrison Afful and Waylon Francis -- are amplified by the Red Bulls’ willingness to apply pressure in advanced areas. If Crew SC cannot find ways to break that initial pressure, then the hosts face considerable peril.
If Crew SC can crack that initial line, then the task changes. It is about managing the Red Bulls’ midfield three, but it is also about trying to find ways to unlock that back four. New York revealed some vulnerability in the channels after Ronald Zubar replaced the injured Damien Perrinelle for the second-leg victory over D.C. United in the Eastern Conference semifinal. Zubar is an imposing physical presence capable of challenging Kei Kamara in the air, but he is often exposed when asked to move laterally or stop balls through the line.
In this instance, Crew SC must explore the Red Bulls’ shape carefully. The usual diet of diagonals and switches is vital. Ethan Finlay and Justin Meram loom as integral contributors when they slice inside from the wide areas, while Federico Higuain presents an intriguing option when he pops up in unorthodox areas.
The key for Crew SC: maintaining the necessary level of responsibility in those actions and movements. New York is particularly adept at interrupting teams and then punishing them for their frailty. Columbus remains vulnerable when its rhythm in possession disappears. They need to ensure those interruptions do not lead to a potentially painful demise.
Western Conference: (3) Portland Timbers -- (1) FC Dallas (7:30p.m. ET, FS1, FOX Sports GO, FOX Deportes)
There is an easy, foreseeable balance to this game. Portland expects to control possession and devise a path through the organized FC Dallas defense. FC Dallas hopes to soak up all that pressure and then spring forward on the counter to punish the Timbers when they get stretched.
Portland implemented this plan fairly well in the scoreless first leg of the Western Conference semifinal against Vancouver. There were opportunities squandered to win that game, but the Timbers managed to blunt the Whitecaps in the second half and steer the match toward safe ground. The question here is whether the Timbers can conjure a goal or two without suspended duo Diego Valeri and Rodney Wallace. Valeri’s absence piles even more responsibility on the resurgent Darlington Nagbe to grab control of the game by the scruff of the neck.
The likely introduction of Will Johnson into the Timbers midfield offers a safeguard against FC Dallas’ blueprint. Johnson isn’t the cleanest passer, but he harries, hustles and tracks like few players in MLS. His likely union with Diego Chara promises to restrict the opportunities for FCD to counter quickly through midfield conduit Mauro Diaz. The onus falls on the Timbers to restrict the service to Michael Barrios (excellent in the second leg against Seattle) and Fabian Castillo when Alvas Powell and Jorge Villafana are pushed higher up the field.
In this first leg, the outcome hinges on Portland’s ability to manage the cadence of the game. If the Timbers can maintain their solid defensive base and wield possession intelligently, then they can prevent FC Dallas from stretching the field vertically. If those principles falter, then FCD might find the openings required to procure the away goal or two required to tip the tie in its favor.
