North Carolina, Clemson run ACC slate to set up pivotal league title game
The ACC got its wish: For the first time in conference history, two teams with undefeated league records will meet in its title game. Though there was hand-wringing along the way for both Clemson and North Carolina on Saturday, the height of rivalry weekend, the two programs hung on and set up what should be the first ACC Championship meeting between top-10 teams.
The unblemished records alter the stakes — but just barely.
Clemson remains the conference's only guarantee for the College Football Playoff. It's simple: win and the Tigers are in. They enter championship week as the nation's undisputed No. 1 with a Heisman hopeful quarterback and a nasty defense. Beating another top-10 team should simply solidify their spot as the top seed. Lose and the ACC likely needs help, but North Carolina's win over rival NC State will at least keep things interesting for both parties.
North Carolina's resume is based almost entirely on the eye test at this point. The strength of schedule will only be made marginally more respectable after taking on Clemson, and the loss to 3-9 South Carolina — the same team that dropped a game to Citadel a week ago — is about as bad as it gets for a team holding on to (slim) playoff hopes. What's helping the Tar Heels' cause? They've rattled off 11 straight wins, obliterating the likes of Duke and Miami, and when Larry Fedora's offense is clicking, it's terrifying. North Carolina ran up a school-record 35 points in the first quarter on Saturday before allowing the Wolfpack to keep things relatively interesting.
The Tar Heels will serve as an interesting case study for the playoff committee. Just how much emphasis can be placed on a conference championship and the fact that, as the season wore on, few teams found a better rhythm. Even with an ACC title and a win over Clemson, it would likely be too steep a hill to climb. The Tigers would be the Tar Heels' only quality win. They needed more chaos above them. They needed more convincing showings against Virginia Tech and NC State. They needed those red-zone turnovers against South Carolina to go the other way.
Questions still remain: Is there enough chaos still available for North Carolina to sneak in? Could Clemson, with help, make the four-team field despite suffering a loss in the final week of the season?
Regardless of North Carolina's dubious spot in the playoff pecking order, it poses the biggest threat to Clemson's perfect 12-0 record since Florida State entered Death Valley on Nov. 7. And that, despite the historic nature of the ACC title game matchup, could cause problems for the league itself.
The Tigers have not overwhelmed opponents since their 58-0 thrashing of Miami, winning three of their final five games by 10 or fewer points, including a too-close-for-comfort 37-32 win over rival South Carolina on Saturday. Though the Tigers have won the turnover battle when it's really mattered (Notre Dame, Florida State), they've suffered, much like North Carolina, from self-inflicted wounds in recent weeks. For the season, Clemson is just plus-1 in turnover margin — a mark that falls well shy of recent title-winning teams.
That shortcoming has yet to bite, though. The Tar Heels cannot say the same. North Carolina's season has been defined by turnovers, most notably the three lost in their season opener. The team's worst moments have stemmed from the refusal to get out of its own way. Two late fumbles turned a cakewalk against Virginia Tech into an overtime nail-biter. A 28-point deficit became less and less comfortable against NC State due to turnovers.
This is all building up to say that both teams feature offenses that make opponents pay for mistakes. The Tar Heels have yet to see a defense as good as this Clemson unit, but 41 points per game is no fluke. Quarterback Marquise Williams orchestrates a strong collection of talent, from running back Elijah Hood (1,280 yards, 16 TDs) to four receivers with 400-plus yards, that gives an improved defense room to work with. Clemson, on the other hand, features arguably the best quarterback in the country (Deshaun Watson) leading an offense that "only" scores 38 points per outing.
When these two teams met in Clemson last season — Watson's first collegiate start — the Tigers rolled, 50-35. Williams kept the Tar Heels relevant in a barnburner, but North Carolina's defense had no answer for then-offensive coordinator Chad Morris' attack. This is a different UNC team. It's a different UNC defense under Gene Chizik.
Clemson is the favorite, for good reason, but North Carolina has a puncher's chance this time around.
The 10-year lifespan of the ACC's conference championship game has been predicated on divisional imbalance. Out of the gates, the Coastal Division typically housed the league's best team. Coastal challengers entered the game as the lower-ranked teams in five of the first seven ACC title games — a run dominated by Virginia Tech while Atlantic powers Florida State and Clemson went through dry spells. The tides have officially turned over the past four years as the Tigers and Seminoles have reestablished themselves as national powers.
The 2015 title game presents a new wrinkle. Not only are both teams undefeated in ACC play for the first time, but both should be ranked in the top-10 for the first time. The next-closest example of this happening in the ACC was the 2007 clash between two-loss Boston College and two-loss Virginia Tech met in a rematch. This Clemson-North Carolina matchup is on another level.
Clemson is the ACC's easy — and likely only — route to the College Football Playoff. Still, by running off 11 straight wins and returning to national relevance for the first time since the Mack Brown Era, North Carolina has set the ACC up for its most intriguing title game in conference history.
