Outkick's Gambling Picks For Week 4 2015
Let's be honest, last week's gambling picks were a total disaster. It started with an 0-2 record on Thursday and Friday night's games and continued into the weekend, where we finished 3-6 on Saturday. After two winning weeks in a row we went 3-8. That dropped our season record to 20-14, we're still winning money at a 59 percent clip, but this one hurt.
Some gamblers would run for the hills after a bad weekend. But not me. When at first the gambling gods go against you, add more steam. With that in mind here are ten picks guaranteed to go 10-0 this week.
In fact, it's scary how much I love these picks. I've got several parlays out there involving these picks.
Here we go:
1. LSU at Syracuse +24.5
This is just such a stupid game for LSU to be playing. Is there anyone in America who wants to see LSU play at Syracuse? It's an 11 am ct kickoff, which means most LSU fans will still be drunk from the night before. You know that LSU won't show up until late in the second quarter when after twenty minutes of futility, Leonard Fournette disembowels three Syracuse defenders en route to an 80 yard touchdown run where he first makes contact with a Syracuse defender five yards in the backfield.
This is just too many points to give for a long trip, in a road environment, in a game that no one at LSU wants to be playing. Especially coming off a huge win over a rival.
The Tigers win by 17, but it's ugly.
2. Mizzou at Kentucky, the under of 44
These are two awful offenses. If Patrick Towles and Maty Mauk had a sword fight right now, both would swing really hard at each other, totally miss, and slice off their own legs. Kentucky is a small favorite in this game, but I'll be damned if I'm ever betting on Kentucky when the Wildcats are favored in an SEC game. Ordinarily that would make you think that Mizzou is a solid play here, but I'll be damned if I'm betting Mizzou as a less than a field goal underdog in a road SEC game.
So the under is the clear play.
Someone wins this game 13-10. I have no idea which team it will be, but it won't matter, we'll all be counting our under money.
By the way, if this game goes to five overtimes -- two of which will be scoreless -- and soars past the under when someone wins 24-21, I'm going to break multiple objects in my immediate vicinity.
3. Bowling Green -1.5 at Purdue
Purdue gave up 51 points to Virginia Tech last week. Virginia Tech hasn't scored 51 points in a road FBS game since Michael Vick was their quarterback. (Note: this is a made up stat, but it seems like it should be accurate). Meanwhile Bowling Green's offense is a juggernaut, posting 48 points on the road at Maryland two weeks ago.
Honestly, this line feels like stealing. I am on Bowling Green big here.
4. Tennessee at Florida the under 53.5
The under has fallen to around 48 since I tweeted out this pick on Monday night. I still like the under at 48, but if you want to see my early plays you need to be following me on Twitter. My Twitter plays have been going pretty well. (Last week I took Austin Peay +47, the week before I took Rice +15. I'll probably add another pick or two on Saturday.)
A huge part of me wants to take Tennessee and make this my bet your mortgage pick of the week, but I promised to never again pick Tennessee in the Florida game after last year's debacle. So I won't do that, not even if you give me Vols +50. Instead, take the under.
Two things to really watch in this game: 1. Can Josh Dobbs throw the football? The Vols are loaded at wideout so I don't think it's a talent issue. So why can't Tennessee open up the offense and take some shots down the field? It may well be Dobbs lacking the arm strength to make the big play in the passing game. 2. Will Grier's scrambles. Can Tennessee limit Florida when it comes to converting first downs with his legs. I'm not sure any team in the country sucks worse consistently than Tennessee does with running quarterbacks.
5. Texas A&M -7 vs. Arkansas
Sometimes you just have to trust your rankings. I have Texas A&M pegged as the second best team in the country. Arkansas is the 13th best team in the SEC right now. Couple that with the fact that Arkansas isn't running the ball very well and A&M has the best pair of rush defensive ends in the country and I don't see how Brandon Allen survives this game.
Am I a bit concerned that I haven't heard a single person in the world picking Arkansas in this game and the line is hanging right around a touchdown? Yes. But I think that's a function of Vegas not wanting to acknowledge that they've missed so horribly on their preseason expectations for Arkansas.
I think A&M wins big in Dallas.
6. Vandy +24.5 at Ole Miss
I know, I know, you all think I'm crazy for taking Vandy here. But Vandy's defense isn't awful and the Rebels are coming off a huge road win at night and now they come back home and play Vandy, the least exciting team in the SEC. This game just screams Chad "Swag" Kelly is still hungover from the Alabama party. Vandy's offense is awful, but their defense will keep this one relatively low scoring. I see Ole Miss winning 31-10.
I also feel like I might be the only person on the planet betting Vanderbilt here. And let's be honest, most people on the planet are dumb. So you want to be on my side. Right, right?
7. Auburn -2 vs. Mississippi State
Here's my rationale -- Auburn's offense and defense can't possibly be as bad as they looked the last two weeks. I have faith in Gus Malzahn on offense and Will Muschamp on defense. It's too easy to take Mississippi State here and point to the way they played against LSU two weeks ago. The problem with that is LSU almost gave that game away.
If Mississippi State comes out and boat races Auburn then I won't bet on the Tigers the rest of the season, but I tend to think there's value on Auburn now. Just when everyone thinks they suck, they come out and surprise you by playing well.
At least that's my theory.
8. TCU at Texas Tech +7.5
I'm tempted to take the over here, but how in the world can you take the over when it's set at 80? So instead I'm going to bet on my man Kliff Kingsbury and take the Red Raiders to keep this one close -- and it wouldn't surprise me if Tech won. Put simply, I don't think TCU is very good on defense. You can blame the injuries if you want, but TCU hasn't been very impressive all season long.
Remember, it's not gay if it's Kliff Kingsbury.
9 and 10. UCLA -3.5 at Arizona and the under 64
Jim Mora has owned Rich Rodriguez the past three years and I think that trend continues. UCLA wins by ten. The more counterintuitive play here may well be the under. Arizona's offense has been rolling and UCLA has shown the ability to score points when Josh Rosen plays well. But I think Rosen comes out and plays a bit poorly in his first tough road environment. Meanwhile, the UCLA defense will stifle this high-flying Arizona offense.
The result, Bruins win 27-17 and we coast into the clubhouse with an easy cover and an easy under win.
...
10-0 baby, can you feel it?
I can.
