Next week the college football season begins.
So this week it's time for Outkick to go ahead and kill the suspense and tell you the four teams that will make the playoff this fall.
But first, how about looking at the top 12 teams in the AP poll and how many top 25 preseason teams they actually play. As you can see, college football schedules are fundamentally unequal. The SEC and the Pac 12 schools should get an automatic berth in the title game for running this scheduling gauntlet.
And please stop with your emails and Tweets saying, "Yes, but the rankings will change, this is just preseason." Great point, so you think Ohio State is going to end up playing seven top 25 opponents and Bama will only play one? Sure, the rankings will vary quite a bit at the end of the season, but there's a decent chance that Bama ends up playing 9 top 25 opponents this year. That's unheard of.
Anyway, let's just take a look at the schedules based on preseason AP rankings.
1. Ohio State
Top 25 opponent: 1
#5 Michigan State
This is seriously the easiest schedule that I can ever remember a top team playing in the modern history of college football.
The Big Ten's back!
Except it's not, it totally blows.
2. TCU
Top 25 opponents: 2
#4 Baylor and at #19 Oklahoma
There's a decent chance Oklahoma isn't ranked by the time TCU plays them, so there's a pretty good shot that TCU will play one top 25 team all season too.
3. Alabama
Alabama has the same number of top 25 opponents as the other four top five teams combined. The Tide even have the same number of top 25 Big Ten opponents as Ohio State, one.
Top 25 opponents 7:
at #6 Auburn, at #9 Georgia, #14 LSU, #17 Ole Miss, #18 Arkansas, #20 Wisconsin, #25 Tennessee (Also at #26 Mississippi State and at #27 Texas A&M)
4. Baylor
The Big 12 is weak in 2015.
Top 25 opponents: 2
at #2 TCU, and #19 Oklahoma
5. Michigan State
Top 25 opponents: 2
at #1 Ohio State, #7 Oregon
6. Auburn
Top 25 opponents: 5
#3 Alabama, #9 Georgia, at #14 LSU, #17 Ole Miss, at #18 Arkansas (Also #26 Mississippi State and at #27 Texas A&M)
7. Oregon
Top 25 opponents: 4
at #5 Michigan State, #8 USC, at #15 Arizona State, at #21 Stanford
8. USC
Top 25 opponents: 6
at #7 Oregon, at #11 Notre Dame, #13 UCLA, at #15 Arizona State, #21 Stanford, #22 Arizona
9. Georgia
Top 25 opponents: 5
#3 Alabama, at #6 Auburn, at #16 Georgia Tech, #24 Mizzou, at #25 Tennessee
10. Florida State
Top 25 opponents: 2
at #12 Clemson, at #16 Georgia Tech
11. Notre Dame
Top 25 opponents: 4
#8 USC, at #12 Clemson, #16 Georgia Tech, at #21 Stanford
12. Clemson
Top 25 opponents: 3
#10 Florida State, #11 Notre Dame, #16 Georgia Tech
With these schedules in mind, here's my four team playoff bracket:
1. Ohio State
2. TCU
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
I think Ohio State, TCU, and Clemson all finish undefeated, Georgia goes 12-1 and wins the SEC, every Pac 12 team ends up with at least 2 losses.
Ohio State beats Clemson and Georgia beats TCU and the title game between Ohio State and Georgia ends with the Bulldogs fumbling on the one yard line about to score to take the lead with thirty seconds left.
Ohio State repeats as champions and I eat a bag of dicks on live television.
It's going to be a great season.
(Note: what would happen if we actually got a Georgia-Clemson title game? I sort of feel like the world might end at halftime.)
