Preakness Stakes 2022 odds: Best bets, long shots, lines and positions
By Andy Serling
FOX Sports Horse Racing Analyst
The field for the 147th running of the Preakness Stakes, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, is scheduled to break from the gate at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore just after 7 p.m. ET Saturday.
Epicenter, the Kentucky Derby runner-up, is a strong favorite and the horse to beat. His major challengers will be filly Secret Oath and Early Voting, who did not participate during Derby weekend.
Which one of these may be vulnerable? Which rivals will step up and outrun his odds? Let’s look at the field and lay out what we hope is a winning betting strategy.
Here are the post positions, betting odds and my best bets for the race.
1. Simplification (6-1 to win outright) — A consistent performer who comes off a solid, if not spectacular, fourth in the Derby. While he lost a lot more ground than Epicenter with a wide trip, he benefited greatly from the fast pace that day. A positive for him is his consistency, and his inside draw should allow him to save the ground he couldn't in Kentucky. At least a bit player.
2. Creative Minister (10-1 to win outright) — Lightly raced with just three starts, his owners paid $150,000 to run here and, hopefully, the Belmont Stakes. While I can think of better ways to spend that kind of money, it shows a confidence that may or may not be deserved. He has improved with every start, and his last win was his best race. However, it came against lesser horses. I’m skeptical.
3. Fenwick (50-1 to win outright) — Attempting to become Rich Style Part Deux. At best, he could be cheap speed. In my opinion, he's way over his head.
4. Secret Oath (9-2 to win outright) — The Kentucky Oaks heroine will try to become the second filly to win the Preakness in the last three runnings. Her Oaks victory was better than it may look as she moved early and wide and was clearly the best horse in the race. Her prior race worries me, a troubled trip third in the Arkansas Derby against males. While there is an argument she should have finished a close second, that was overall a very weak race, with the winner finishing 18th in the Derby and the runner-up a fortunate sixth. I must try to fade one of the shorter-priced horses to make money in this race, and for me, that is Secret Oath.
5. Early Voting (7-2 to win outright) — The horse most likely to upset favored Epicenter. He has an abundance of speed, and in his short career, he has shown the ability to set relatively quick paces and still finish well. Given the makeup of this field, he could be the controlling speed. He follows the same path his trainer Chad Brown and owner Klaravich Stables used to upset the 2017 Preakness with Cloud Computing at 13-1. Like Cloud Computing, he has only run three times and made the prudent decision to pass on the Derby and wait for the Preakness. That extra rest seems to have served him well as his work leading up to this race was strong and especially pleasing to his trainer. He needs to improve to beat Epicenter, but his tactical advantage and extra rest could provide the required recipe.
6. Happy Jack (30-1 to win outright) — After finishing 14th in the Derby, they may need to change his name to Miserable Jack if he runs as expected. Pass.
7. Armagnac (12-1 to win outright) – Another "new shooter" who did not race in the Derby. While his best race was his last, it was earned under ideal circumstances against lesser competition. His prior effort was a fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished just behind Happy Jack. The good news is that he will probably reverse that decision. The rest is likely to be bad news.
8. Epicenter (6-5 to win outright) – The horse to beat, hence the odds. Epicenter runs well every time he starts. He ran the best race when second in the Derby, moving early into the wicked pace, only to be caught by a lightning bolt. He possesses plenty of early speed, which means he is unlikely to be a victim of Early Voting’s potential pace advantage. Unless you worry that he won’t bounce back from his taxing effort in Kentucky, he will only lose this race if Early Voting improves off his last start. While that is certainly a possibility, the ultimate question we must answer is what odds are good (or bad) enough to bet on whether that will happen.
9. Skippylongstocking (20-1 to win outright) – Another that passed on the Derby. He improved to run his best race last time when third, 3 ½ lengths behind Early Voting, in the Wood Memorial. If you want to be optimistic, you can hope he takes another step forward here, potentially earning him a third or fourth-place finish.
RELATED: Everything you need to know about the Preakness Stakes
This takes us to decision-making time. While I do not want to take a big stand against Epicenter and won’t with my bets, I feel you need to toss out either Early Voting or Secret Oath to create betting value.
When it comes to Secret Oath, I just can’t get past my negative view of the Arkansas Derby, so I'm playing against the filly. While she is the third choice on the Morning Line, I will not be surprised if she ends up the second choice. If that happens, Early Voting will likely move to 4-1 or higher, making him worth a win bet to me.
And I believe that if Secret Oath does not finish in the top three, Simplification is the likeliest third-place finisher.
When it comes to betting, I will play exactas, where you have to finish 1-2 in exact order. If you "box" an exacta, you are making two bets and will win if the horses finish first and second in either order. I will also sprinkle on a few trifectas, where you need to predict the first three finishers in exact order.
So, let's get down to business. For my Preakness best bets, I will roll with the following Exacta Boxes, Trifectas and win bets (picks in the graphic below):
A small note on the Exacta Box. Take the No. 5 Early Voting and No. 8 Epicenter in an Exacta Box. Then take whatever amount you bet on that combination, and bet one-third as much on a box of No. 5 Early Voting and No. 1 Simplification in case Epicenter doesn’t run his race.
After all of that, if you want to keep it simple, bet on Early Voting to win. And if you're feeling frisky and going to throw a few dollars on a long shot, the 20-1 morning line on Skippylongstocking is the most likely one to outrun his odds.
As always, happy betting!
Andy Serling is the Senior Racing Analyst for the New York Racing Association (NYRA) and appears regularly on America's Day at the Races/Saratoga Live on FOX Sports. He also analyzes the races daily on Talking Horses on the NYRA simulcast network among other duties covering Saratoga, Belmont and Aqueduct. In his slightly more respectable days, he traded options on the now-defunct American Stock Exchange. Follow him on Twitter @andyserling.
