Predators goaltending will be key to postseason success
With just a handful of games remaining in the 2016-17 season and clinching a playoff spot all but a lock, the Nashville Predators may never have been as prepared as they are now for the arduous journey towards a franchise-first Stanley Cup championship.
Behind the late surge that has thrown the Predators into a dead-heat battle with the St. Louis Blues over third in the Central Division, as well as a possible late grab for second over the stumbling Minnesota Wild, Nashville’s goaltending duo of Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros could be the most important key for success over the coming weeks.
Rinne, who has provided the Predators with an 8-2-3 record in his last 13 games, may be the biggest surprise between the two.
At the beginning of the year, Nashville didn’t exude the same confident goaltending that it had in previous seasons. Statistically speaking, Rinne’s 2015-16 campaign ended as the second-worst season of his career – posting a sub-.910 save percentage and allowing over 160 goals for only the second time in eight years. Not just that, but with Carter Hutton departing to the Blues and Marek Mazanec not firmly grabbing hold of the newly-available backup position, most questions surrounding the team’s future success were squarely pointed towards goaltending.
If his play in October would be any indication of how the rest of the season was going to go, then it wasn’t a strong start.
Rinne would play six of Nashville’s first eight games, posting a 1-4-1 record in that span. Interestingly, he would bounce back in November with a 9-1-2 record. Yet, from October through January, Rinne’s record-per-month has flip-flopped from the month before, seeing solid statistics posted one month and a dismal record the next:
October 2016: 1-4-1, 0.906 Sv%, 3.22 GAA
November 2016: 9-1-2, 0.949 Sv%, 1.49 GAA, 1 SO
December 2016: 3-5-2, 0.875 Sv%, 3.44 GAA
January 2017: 6-3-1, 0.933 Sv%, 2.07 GAA
Since the start of February, whatever inconsistency that plagued Rinne over the first four months of the season has come to rest – collecting a 11-4-2 record alongside a 0.908 save percentage and 2.66 goals against average, including one shutout.
Not only that, but the emergence of Saros – who could quite possibly be Rinne’s heir-apparent in the coming years – has given the Predators with a sense of comfort. If Rinne came in need of a rest or across an unfortunate injury, Nashville could start Saros and feel as though they were playing another starting netminder.
The Predators have never truly had a 1A/1B goaltending duo in their history. Even with the way Saros has played this season, maybe it’s imprecise in saying that it could be viewed that way. However, Saros is the first goaltender since Rinne himself to truly provide Nashville with starter-quality goaltending when filling in for Rinne.
For the Preds to truly compete for a Stanley Cup, they’ll need what they’re getting now from Rinne and more. Odds are that Saros won’t enter a playoff game this season unless something happens to Rinne or his play starts to falter. As the team has been playing perhaps its best hockey of the entire season, what can they do to make sure Rinne has the tools to continue to play at an elite level?
Staunch Defense
A hallmark of Nashville Predators hockey has traveled a rough and bumpy road this season. As healthy bodies have re-emerged into Nashville’s lineup, the path has smoothed itself and returned back to what we’re used to seeing from this organization. The top four of Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm stands as two of the best defensive pairings in the NHL.
Since February 1st, Josi and Subban stand third and sixth in the NHL for points scored by defensemen. Ellis has the second most goals posted for defensemen during the same time period, while Ekholm’s recorded the 7th most takeaways.
As fluid as the final pair has been all season, both Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber have done a fantastic job anchoring it down, along with the occasional entry of Anthony Bitetto.
Part of the reason Rinne’s play has been so stellar as of late has been the quality of defensive play that surrounds him.
Run Support
There’s no question that a goaltender may feel more relaxed when his team allocates him a goal cushion, albeit relaxed may not be how you want your goaltender to feel in a crucial game. Regardless, the Predators have scored three or more goals in six of their last nine games – all six being wins.
In years past, goals forced during wins would seemingly hover around that same number: three. Three goals were normally a bare minimum for the Predators to consistently pocket two points at the end of a game. That much hasn’t changed. While they’ve recently shown the ability to win close games without scoring three goals – a March 16th 2-1 victory over the Washington Capitals in overtime – Nashville’s penchant for finding offense in its wins isn’t just coincidental.
Providing offensive support for Rinne not only boosts the in-game confidence of those on the ice and bench, but could also impart a sense of certainty in his play. Of Rinne’s 57 games this season, only four have seen him lose if the Predators record at least three goals – three of those came outside of regulation.
When Nashville scores three goals? Rinne is a healthy 26-1-3.
Penalty Killing
They say your best penalty killer is your goaltender, but for Nashville it’s been a team effort over the last three weeks.
After allowing three power play goals to the Los Angeles Kings back on March 9th, the Predators have locked down their penalty kill – allowing only three goals over the last 25 power plays. That’s a tie for fourth-best in the NHL since March 11th with an 88 percent success rate. Only Edmonton, St. Louis and Carolina have performed better when down a man.
If Nashville can shore up its penalty kill percentage at home, then it should bode well for its success over the coming weeks. Granted, it’s hard to kill penalties when the team in question is among the bottom half in the league for teams penalized.
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All of this simplifies down to one common denominator: Pekka Rinne. His performance will determine how far Nashville travels in the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs. If his play of late has been any indication, then the Predators can expect to have a run this season.
But what if he falters? Rinne’s been spelled by Saros 19 times so far this year, the most he’s seen in a full season of play since 2008-10 when Dan Ellis played behind him. Rest has always been a question in regards to Rinne’s longevity in net during a season. Outside of a spectacular 2011-12 postseason that should have seen Nashville travel further than they did, Rinne hasn’t posted the best of stats.
Will this be a different season? Could the Predators look to Saros if Rinne stumbles during the playoffs, à la Detroit and Chicago in years past?
While an interesting hypothesis to consider, the hopes of a Stanley Cup rest with Rinne for now. It’s exactly how Nashville would envision it, too.
