StaTuesday: Recent No. 23 overall picks in the NFL Draft
There's one sure thing about the NFL Draft -- there is no sure thing.
The draft is littered with players performing up to, below and beyond expectations. And this includes the first round, the most glamorous of all the picks. No player is guaranteed to be a star, no matter when they were taken. Another thing to keep in mind is immediate impact. Only half of last year's 32 first-round picks could be considered starters last season.
But what is the history of the No. 23 overall pick -- where the Minnesota Vikings are scheduled to select this year -- in the NFL Draft?
We took a look back to the 2002 draft, the year Houston entered the NFL to give the league its current 32-team structure. The findings show several solid players, a few Pro Bowl appearances and a couple of busts.
The majority of players taken at No. 23 have been or were a starter for the majority of their career, including Sharrif Floyd, who was selected by Minnesota in 2013. Other standouts made with the 23rd overall pick are Bryan Bulaga (2010), Michael Oher (2009), Dwayne Bowe (2007), Davin Joseph (2006) and Willis McGahee (2003).
Of the past 14 players selected at No. 23 (dating back to that 2012 draft), only three have made the Pro Bowl (Joseph and McGahee twice and Bowe once) and none have been first-team All-Pro selections.
In 2015, Denver took linebacker Shane Ray with the No. 23 overall pick. He played in 14 games for the Broncos as a rookie with 20 tackles and four sacks. Two years ago, Kansas City chose linebacker Dee Ford, who played 16 games as a rookie with eight tackles and 1.5 sacks. In 2015, Ford played in 14 games with five starts, recording 23 tackles and four sacks.
The Vikings are widely thought to be targeting a wide receiver in the first round. The only receiver taken since 2002 at No. 23 was Bowe, who had three 1,000-yard seasons with Kansas City and 44 touchdowns in eight years overall, including 15 in 2010. However, Bowe was released after the 2014 season in which he had 60 catches for 754 yards with no TDs. In 2015 with Cleveland, Bowe played sparingly, appearing only seven games with five receptions for 53 yards.
Below is a list of all the players selected at No. 23 since 2002 which includes the year, player, position, drafting team, length of career, first-team All-Pro selections (API), Pro Bowl selections (PB), number of years as primary starter and weighted career approximate value, the latter two as computed by pro-football-reference.com.
For comparison's sake, here are the highest weighted career approximate value of the top offensive and defensive player from every draft since 2002: 2015 -- Jameis Winston (13) & Marcus Peters (11); 2014 -- Aaron Donald (30) & Odell Beckham Jr. (23); 2013 -- Eddie Lacy (32) & Ezekiel Ansah (26); 2012 -- Russell Wilson (65) & Luke Kuechly (53); 2011 -- J.J. Watt (81) & Cam Newton (76); 2010 -- Ndamukong Suh (65) & Antonio Brown (60); 2009 -- Clay Matthews (70) & Matthew Stafford (64); 2008 -- Matt Ryan (96) & Calais Campbell (61); 2007 -- Patrick Willis (92) & Adrian Peterson (88); 2006 -- Jahri Evans (103) & Haloti Ngata (97); 2005 -- Aaron Rodgers (112) & DeMarcus Ware (99); 2004 -- Phillip Rivers (121) & Jared Allen (99); 2003 -- Carson Palmer (100) & Kevin Williams (99); 2002 -- Julius Peppers (126) & Clinton Portis (71).
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