Three Cuts: Inciarte, Teheran and Freeman fit Braves' rebuilding timeline
The Atlanta Braves were swept by the Colorado Rockies as their second-half struggles continue, falling to 2-8 since the All-Star break. Here are three observations from the week:
1. The Braves' rebuilding plan does not necessitate trading the likes of Ender Inciarte, Julio Teheran or Freddie Freeman
Starting with the franchise-altering trade of Jason Heyward in November 2014, the Atlanta Braves franchise has set its contention timeline on delay — an intentional process of running a major-league operation with at least one eye on the future at all times. Despite the front office's "parallel paths" rhetoric, the roster teardown shifted the franchise's playoff window exclusively to SunTrust Park.
With few exceptions — the Nick Markakis signing and Hector Olivera trade come to mind — every move since the end of the 2014 season has aimed to obtain players who will be in their primes at that time.
Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran and Ender Inciarte fit into that window ... and if they do not then Atlanta's rebuilding plan is broken.
The three best players on the 2016 roster are each in their mid-20s and under club control through the 2020 season. (Freeman's franchise-record contract runs through 2021.) Regardless of rumor-mill chatter that the frontrunners for the 2017 No. 1 overall pick need to trade one or two of their most productive pieces for prospects, higher risk options with a slightly more club control, any hints at urgency are overstated. There is no countdown to Aug. 1.
If the Braves are, in fact, open to trading the likes of Inciarte and Teheran, they can afford to be patient. Besides, there is value in keeping this trio in place.
Though general manager John Coppolella should actively seek to improve the organization at every turn, somewhere down the line the Braves will need to settle on proven commodities. In 2016, such answers might begin and end with Teheran, Freeman and Inciarte. The All-Star starting pitcher, productive first baseman and Gold Glove-caliber outfielder have combined for 5.5 of the team's 6.2 wins above replacement. Current youngsters like Mike Foltynewicz, Matt Wisler and Mallex Smith have flashed potential, and up-and-coming prospects Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies could start contributing as early as this season, but those pieces come with obvious inherent risks.
Coppolella & Co. can only hit the reset button so many times.
As the Shelby Miller blockbuster illuminated, Atlanta understands that even potential cornerstones come with a price tag. If opponents intend to overpay for assets, do not get in their way. But there's just as good of a chance — perhaps a better one — that another GM goes over the top for Teheran or Inciarte this winter, when more buyers are in play, than finding a desperate contender at the trade deadline. Or Atlanta could wait until next summer. Or the next.
The Braves have this luxury with their best players: It isn't rush hour.
2. Coors Field curse continues
Atlanta's losing streak in the mile-high bandbox hit 10 games after being outscored 26-12 over its four games in Denver over the weekend.
Couple those struggles with a series loss at Great American Ballpark, in which their lone win called for extra innings, and offense-friendly ballparks have not treated the Braves well this month.
Per the usual, the high altitudes were unkind to the Braves pitching staff. Foltynewicz, Wisler and rookie Tyrell Jenkins were chased from their starts with sub-replacement numbers while Teheran left Friday's game early with tightness in his right lat. (Teheran is listed as day-to-day but not expected to miss his next start.) The main culprit in the rotation's struggles was Colorado rookie shortstop Trevor Story, who tallied four home runs and nine RBI in the final three games of the series, nearly matching Atlanta's power output for the entire second half to date. Such pitching hiccups are the norm.
It did not help that the offense missed opportunities throughout.
In Sunday's finale, Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood walked eight batters in just five innings of work. The Braves could not score a single run off him. As manager Brian Snitker said, "We should've been the ones running away with the game really with all the baserunners we had."
Two garbage-time runs prevented a series-ending shutout, but that makes two straight trips to the Rocky Mountains without the offense posting a double-digit run total in a single game. That makes for an uphill battle against the highest-scoring team in the National League.
The last time the Braves won at Coors Field, Mike Minor got the start, David Hale earned the win in relief and Craig Kimbrel picked up the save. That was a 13-10 affair. If the assumption is that pitchers are bound to encounter road blocks in the thin air, the Braves' latest journey to Denver served as the most recent reminder of just how far their offense has to go.
3. Erick Aybar showing signs of plate discipline
The most plausible deadline scenario for Atlanta involves finding trade partners for veteran pieces, perhaps even for shortstop Erick Aybar, who is in the middle of the worst season of his career. Per FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal, Aybar headlines a not-too-enticing list of names on the Braves' trading block.
Rival executive: #Braves aggressively shopping Aybar, Francoeur, left-handed relievers.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 24, 2016
Opposing GMs are not blind to Aybar's struggles. After reaching base four times in four plate appearances against the Rockies, his slash line sits at .214/.277/.267 for 44 weighted runs created plus. Even given the possibility that another team wants to add a veteran bench piece with the optimism that Aybar can reach back and hit at his career averages down the stretch, the expectations should be low.
Still, Aybar's performance in Colorado can not hurt Atlanta's trade talks.
The 32-year-old walked five times in the Rockies series after walking just 13 times in his previous 279 plate appearances. The series helped bump his on-base percentage up 13 points. He's still a long, long way from posting replacement-level numbers even in small sample sizes, but Aybar picked a good time to have his most patient four-game stretch of 2016.
