Three Cuts: Trade Julio Teheran? Why it's a major conundrum for Braves
Three Cuts: Trade Julio Teheran? Why it's a major conundrum for Braves Taking three cuts after a week in which the Braves completed their best 10-game stretch of the season -- going 7-3 -- Hank Aaron gave a history lesson and Ian Anderson officially added his name to organization's the pitching depth.
"He's 25 years old. He has a club-friendly contract and he's playing some of the best baseball of his career right now."
That was analyst Nick Green during FOX Sports South's Braves LIVE pregame Sunday on why Atlanta shouldn't deal the starter. Of course, it's those very reasons why Teheran is so appealing on the trade market -- a fact which general manager John Coppolella is all too familiar with given his choice of reading material -- and while Coppolella said during his most recent #AskCoppy Q&A on Twitter that it doesn't seem likely, it remains a hot topic because it does make sense.
Despite the recent offensive outbursts, Freddie Freeman is the only every day piece that has a positive offensive WAR (Gordon Beckham does too, as does bench piece Brandon Snyder and part-time starter Chase d'Arnaud). While there is talent in the minors, a la Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Rio Ruiz and Austin Riley, the Braves are in dire need of more MLB-ready or close-to-MLB-ready bats, and dealing Teheran, especially now, could bring it.
Yes. I don't see us trading Teheran at this point, he's almost into "right-arm" type status for us now. https://t.co/mnVUH3fEXh
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) June 24, 2016
The Red Sox are said to have interest, and they have intriguing options in second baseman Yoan Moncada -- Boston's No. 1 prospect, and fifth overall, via MLB Pipeline-- and outfielders Rafael Devers (No. 2 in system; 14th overall) and Andrew Benintendi (No. 3 and 21st overall). Moncada sits higher than anyone in the Braves system in the overall rankings and is hitting .308 this season in the Carolina League. As much as there's a premium on pitching at the MLB level, there's an even greater one on impact bats, a point that Coppolella himself mentioned during the Winter Meetings deal of Shelby Miller that brought back Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson.
In order to get more of the offensive talent the Braves want and need go return to prominence, the deal is going to have to hurt a bit, and losing Teheran would most certainly hurt. This month, no other starter has stranded every base runner he's allowed, as Teheran has posted a 1.91 ERA in five starts in June. Overall, he's 3-7 with a 2.04 ERA, a career high in strikeouts-per-nine-innings (8.41) and low in walks per nine (2.04).
If you take the WAR of every other Braves starter this season -- Aaron Blair, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Foltynewicz, John Gant, Casey Kelly, Bud Norris, Williams Perez and Matt Wisler -- they've combined for 1.7, the same number Teheran has posted on his own.
The right-hander is the most valuable and consistent piece in the Braves' rotation, and with the possibility that the 31-year-old Norris -- who was strong again in Sunday's 5-2 win with seven shutout innings -- could be moved, it's a group that figures to get even younger. Teheran as the anchor and clubhouse trendsetter is crucial to everyone else's development.
From that end, how could Atlanta trade Teheran? But to get more elite offensive talent to add to that wealth of arms, it may take trading their most wanted asset. It's a conundrum, and as Teheran continues to pitch at a career-best level, it's not going away.
Speaking to Jace Peterson during the final days of his longer-than-expected Triple-A stint, he admitted there was frustration. Told he'd again be the Braves every day second baseman after holding down that job directly out of spring training in 2015, it was a harsh reality as he was in Gwinnett for more than a month.
Julio Teheran v. Freddie Freeman: Which @Braves standout most deserves All-Star consideration?https://t.co/03ggSVBXEg
— FOX Sports Southeast (@FOXSportsSE) June 23, 2016
But after hitting .186/.276/.258 there in 97 at-bats with just five extra-base hits, Peterson has posted a .333/.390/.412 line since his return to Atlanta with two doubles, a home run and six RBI in 64 plate appearances.
He's also regained his job at second base -- which he lost after seven games -- filling it in every game since his return. As good as Peterson has been, though, Gordon Beckham is beginning his rehab assignment and could rejoin the team this week. Add in Erick Aybar's rebound, Adonis Garcia raking since his own Triple-A sabbatical and Chase d'Arnaud's continued impact, and the Braves have a good problem on their hands: trying to figure out how all these infield pieces fit together, and what it could mean as the trade deadline nears.
Despite the advanced metrics saying otherwise -- he's posted a minus-1 defensive runs saved and a minus-2.6 defensive WAR -- Garcia has looked better defensively than he did a year ago, including Sunday's highlights as he robbed the Mets' Neil Walker in foul territory and made an over-the-shoulder catch against James Loney. He also has four homers -- including a three-run shot in the series finale against New York -- and three doubles since his return to Atlanta, and remains one of the few power options outside of Freeman. If the defense looks like it did Sunday, he has to stay in the lineup. Even if it's borderline, he still has a spot.
The same goes for shortstop, as Aybar is hitting .300 since June 12 with five doubles after holding a .182 average through May, and has played his way into again being the primary option there.
Second base is interesting with Beckham, d'Arnaud and Peterson all as options. Beckham -- who played 17 games at second, 14 at third and four at shortstop -- was hitting .284 in 31 games before he landed on the DL June 2, and the belief here is he at a minimum makes it a timeshare if he doesn't reclaim the job. But Peterson's aforementioned success and d'Arnaud's June included a .257 average and .321 OBP have shown them as strong options in their own rights.
The answer to how all this shakes out is likely lies in the Swiss Army knife skill sets of d'Arnaud and Peterson. Both have played in the outfield, with Peterson largely seeing time there in Gwinnett, and d'Arnaud logging 11 innings in the grass in Atlanta. Atlanta is said to have entertained calls on the availability of Nick Markakis, and Jeff Francoeur, Aybar and Beckham's names have also been floated.
The true value of d'Arnaud and Peterson may be in the flexibility it gives the Braves as the trade deadline approaches, even if they end up losing a consistent role in the interim.
The numbers from Aaron Blair haven't just been bad, they've been historically bad in the annals of Braves franchise history. Through 11 winless starts, the 24-year-old right-hander has allowed 45 earned runs.
Per Baseball-Reference's always-eye-opening Play Index, that's the most of any Boston/Milwaukee/Atlanta starter since 1913 through the first 11 outings of their career, besting the previous record of 38.
The latest saw Blair get burned for eight runs against the Mets on Friday, after which the rookie found himself back in Triple-A, with reliever Matt Marksberry making his return to Atlanta. As much as the fourth-rated prospect in the system has struggled, going 0-5 with a 7.99 ERA, it's been worse in his second go-around with the major league club.
Sent back to Triple-A on May 18, a day after allowed nine runs in 1 1/3 innings vs. the Pirates, Blair has chased strong outings after bad. Three times he's allowed three runs or less, then followed with six earned (June 2 vs. the Giants and June 13 against the Reds), and finally the eight runs last time out vs. the Mets.
As interim manager Brian Snitker said after Blair's last outing, even when he's throwing first pitch strikes -- which he did to 10 of the first 12 batters in his last outing -- you can be wild in the strike zone. That's where Blair is now, with an arsenal that's not fooling major league hitters. He is showing some progress, as he had four outings of two or less Ks through his first five, and since then he's had two with four punch-outs and one with five.
Blair's last stint in the minors lasted just three innings before he was called upon again. A lengthy stay is no doubt coming this time, but as we dig into that question that is going to follow Blair right now -- is he actually this bad? -- take this into consideration: the previous Braves record of 38 earned runs through the first 11 starts of a career? It was shared by Charlie Morton in 2008 ... and Tom Glavine in 1987-88. Three runs behind Glavine was John Smoltz and Steve Avery yielded 33 in his first 11 outings.
Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney and Facebook. His book, 'Tales from the Atlanta Braves Dugout: A Collection of the Greatest Braves Stories Ever Told,' is out now, and 'The Heisman Trophy: The Story of an American Icon and Its Winners' will be released Nov. 1, 2016.
