Top Week 15 fantasy football matchups: Stafford sets sights on Saints
Through 14 weeks, our Position vs. Fantasy Defensive Points Allowed tool has become a strong tool to identify good matchups. Now it's playoff time for most of you, and don't want to get caught missing any details or advantageous situations.
As always, please remember that the players listed are mostly meant to be borderline guys, who need reasons for you to play or bench them. You won't see recommendations to start LeSean McCoy and Antonio Brown, because you should always start McCoy and Brown. If a player is close to the start/sit fence, we'll push him one way or the other.
Note: The fantasy points per game (FPPG) referenced below are from FOXSports.com standard leagues.
Thursday game: Bucs at Rams
Quarterbacks
Stay away: Eli Manning, Giants (vs. Panthers)
The Panthers' defense ranks second against opposing quarterbacks by allowing 13.4 FPPG, gives up a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and is one of just two teams with more interceptions than passing TDs allowed. Manning has had a strong season, albeit with some mediocre fantasy performances versus tough defenses. He probably won't get shut down, but a big day is unlikely, and he's outside of my top 15 at the position.
Also:
Marcus Mariota has been on a roll lately, averaging 26.2 fantasy points over his last six games. However, his upcoming road matchup with a Patriots' defense that ranks sixth with 14.5 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks isn't a good one. He probably won't catch a TD pass or run 87 yards for a score in this game, either.
Play, play, play: Matthew Stafford, Lions (at Saints)
Stop me if you've heard this before: PLAY EVERYONE AGAINST THE SAINTS! Yes, even if the Bucs burned you in Week 14. The Saints have given up a horrible 23 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, as well as league-worst marks in YPA (8.5), touchdown passes (36) and passer rating (114.2). You'll want to roll with Stafford, who hasn't posted fewer than 19.8 fantasy points since the Lions switched offensive coordinators. Go get 'em, Jim Bob Cooter.
Also:
Philip Rivers has no receivers left and a bad O-line, but he does have a matchup with a QB-friendly Dolphins' defense (18.6 FPPG). Rivers isn't a great play, but he sneaks into my top 15, ahead of Manning and Mariota.
Running backs
Stay away: Ronnie Hillman, Broncos (at Steelers)
Hillman is likely to welcome back committee-mate C.J. Anderson, and will face a Steeler D that ranks third with 13.7 FPPG allowed to opposing running backs. Hillman isn't a disastrous play, but he has a low floor and is outside my top 24.
Also:
Isaiah Crowell has run for 207 yards and two touchdowns over his last two games. Time to get back on the horse? Not against the Seahawks, who allow a league-low 11.8 FPPG to opposing running backs.
Play, play, play: Bryce Brown, Seahawks (vs. Browns)
The return of Christine Michael complicates the Seahawks' post-Rawls backfield, to the point where we're guessing on who will be the primary back, as both main candidates weren't even on the team Monday morning. Even if it's a committee, we'll bet on Brown to lead it. It's important to note that DuJuan Harris was given 18 carries after Rawls got hurt last week - -this team is committed to running the ball. This is a nice matchup for the Seahawks' backs, as the Browns have allowed 20.5 FPPG to opposing runners, and 131.3 rushing yards per game.
FB Derrick Coleman and third-down back Fred Jackson should get extra work, but in narrowly defined roles. As of Thursday morning, I've got Brown at RB24 and Michael at RB36.
Also:
The Bengals' tandem of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard gets a matchup with a 49ers' defense that has allowed a league-worst 24.3 FPPG to opposing running backs. With A.J. McCarron under center, we can expect the Bengals to run more than usual. Both Hill and Bernard are in my top 24, with Hill close to RB1 territory.
Wide receivers
Stay away: Allen Hurns, Jaguars (vs. Falcons)
I like Hurns, but he got just four targets last week, and his 80-yard touchdown catch was assisted by a terrible defensive play. Against a Falcons' defense that ranks second with just 15.7 FPPG allowed to opposing wideouts, he's only in flexville this week.
Play, play, play: Michael Floyd and John Brown, Cardinals (at Eagles)
The Eagles have been terrible against wide receivers, ranking 31st in both FPPG allowed (28.7) and TD passes given up (29). As good as Larry Fitzgerald has been this season, he hasn't scored in five weeks, and has become more of a possession receiver lately. That leaves more TD upside for Floyd and Brown, both of whom scored in Week 14.
Floyd has 21 targets over the last two games to Brown's 13, but both are worthy of WR2 consideration.
Also:
Golden Tate has caught 32 passes for 246 yards and three scores over his last four games, and faces a Saints' defense that ranks 21st with 25 FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers. Frankly, I'm surprised that the Saints have such a high ranking against any position, but I'm still using Tate and Calvin Johnson.
Tight ends
Stay away: Jason Witten, Cowboys (vs. Jets)
Witten has been TE10 in PPR scoring this season, but his numbers have been slow and steady without upside. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1, or surpassed 46 receiving yards since Week 7. Against a Jets' defense that ranks fifth with 5.6 FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends, Witten has little chance to help you.
Also:
Travis Kelce is TE10 on my board this week. Not bad, but not where he usually ranks, and that's due to a matchup with a Ravens' defense that ranks third with 5.2 FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends. I probably wouldn't bench Kelce, but if I had a guy like Ben Watson as well, I'd consider it.
Play, play, play: Eric Ebron, Lions (at Saints)
SAINTS ... BAAAAAAD! They've allowed 12.6 FPPG to opposing tight ends, and Eric Ebron is up next, since the Lions lost Brandon Pettigrew (knee) for the season. MLive.com reported this week that Ebron is in line for an "expanded role," and he's in a nice spot to produce if you need to stream at tight end. Ebron is owned in just 20.2 percent of FOXSports.com leagues.
