Updated 2015 NFL draft order, analyzing team needs: Divisional round
The first 24 picks of the 2015 NFL Draft are set in stone as the non-playoff teams have been lined up in reverse order, and the Bengals, Steelers, Lions and Cardinals dropped games in the wild-card round last weekend.
As the rest of the playoffs unfold, the final eight selections will fall into place as well.
We'll get four more (Picks 25-28) after the divisional round, Picks 29 and 30 will be filled by the losers of the conference championship games, and the Super Bowl loser will pick at 31, with the winner getting the final pick of the first round at 32.
To keep from predicting playoff winners and losers, teams that are currently slated for the playoffs will be placed in reverse order of finish and ties broken just like the non-playoff teams; strength of schedule.
If the season ended today, here's what the NFL draft order would be:
2014 Record: 2-14 Strength of Schedule: .486
Notes: There are two things I'm relatively sure of: The first being that Tampa Bay, on paper, should have been better than its 2-14 record. I'm also convinced that if the Bucs can fix their quarterback problem, they'll become relevant very quickly.
With the No. 1 pick in the draft, the Buccaneers take: Marcus Mariota, QB -- Oregon
2014 Record: 2-14 Strength of Schedule: .506
Notes: If the Titans were to pass on their need at quarterback -- whether to give Zach Mettenberger a longer trial, or to take the best player available in the draft -- they could trade this pick to another quarterback-needy team, or grab a defensive lineman that could alter games immediately.
With the No. 2 pick in the draft, the Titans take: Randy Gregory, DE -- Nebraska
2014 Record: 3-13 Strength of Schedule: .514
Notes: The best way to help Blake Bortles would be to draft some offensive line help. That should happen in this draft, but Jacksonville will either look at Amari Cooper here (a weapon to enhance Bortles' arsenal) or a defensive lineman, as it's too early for the o-line.
With the No. 3 pick in the draft, the Jaguars take: Leonard Williams, DL -- USC
2014 Record: 3-13 Strength of Schedule: .570
Notes: With Derek Carr as their man under center, the Raiders will grab the best receiver in the draft, and hope that he turns out every bit as good as their first-round pick from a year ago, Khalil Mack.
With the No. 4 pick in the draft, the Raiders take: Amari Cooper, WR -- Alabama
2014 Record: 3-10 Strength of Schedule: .496
Notes: The Redskins absolutely need help along the offensive line, but picking in this slot may be too early to grab a tackle. Washington could also use help in pass-rushing situations, and there are some available players who could wreak havoc early in their NFL careers available at No. 5.
With the No. 5 pick in the draft, the Redskins take: Shane Ray, DE -- Missouri
2014 Record: 4-12 Strength of Schedule: .543
Notes: The Jets would be absolutely thrilled to land one of the two quarterbacks with a first-round grade without having to trade up.
With the No. 6 pick in the draft, the Jets take: Jameis Winston, QB -- Florida State
2014 Record: 5-11 Strength of Schedule: .529
Notes: The Bears need help all over of the defense, but without a general manager or head coach in place, it's easier to look at the secondary than it is to guess what kind of defensive scheme will be used up front.
With the No. 7 pick in the draft, the Bears take: Landon Collins, S -- Alabama
2014 Record: 6-10 Strength of Schedule: .482
Notes: When it comes to getting after an opposing quarterback, the Falcons need help. I expect them to use more than one draft pick addressing this need. Fowler has the pass-rush skills, but also a lot of versatility to play anywhere on Atlanta's line, or in whatever scheme materializes after a new head coach is hired.
With the No. 8 pick in the draft, the Falcons take: Dante Fowler, Jr., DE/OLB -- Florida
2014 Record: 6-10 Strength of Schedule: .512
Notes: The Giants can grab help at linebacker here, or look to take the first offensive lineman of the draft. But pass-rush help is what will likely happen.
With the No. 9 pick in the draft, the Giants take: Vic Beasley, DE -- Clemson
2014 Record: 6-10 Strength of Schedule: .531
Notes: The Rams would love to grab a quarterback with this pick, but as of right now, neither first-round option is available. It might be a little too early to take an inside linebacker, so the offensive line will get some attention.
With the No. 10 pick in the draft, the Rams take: Andrus Peat, OT -- Stanford
2014 Record: 7-9 Strength of Schedule: .475
Notes: Over his last five games, first-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed 72.1 percent of his passes. How much better could he get in 2015 if the Vikings added a weapon for him?
With the No. 11 pick in the draft, the Vikings take: Devante Parker, WR -- Louisville
2014 Record: 7-9 Strength of Schedule: .479
Notes: With two first-round picks, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the Browns look to bolster their passing game and run defense early.
With the No. 12 pick in the draft, the Browns take: Kevin White, WR -- West Virginia
2014 Record: 7-9 Strength of Schedule: .486
Notes: The Saints were, once again, a train wreck on defense in 2014. Their perilous season stemmed somewhat because there was very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
With the No. 13 pick in the draft, the Saints take: Bud Dupree, DE/OLB -- Kentucky
2014 Record: 8-8 Strength of Schedule: .512
Notes: The Dolphins could use a running back and a linebacker (not to mention a wide receiver and corner), but even though Thompson played both at Washington, he'll arrive in Miami to help on defense.
With the No. 14 pick in the draft, the Dolphins take: Shaq Thompson, OLB -- Washington
2014 Record: 8-8 Strength of Schedule: .527
Notes: The 49ers lost four of their last five games, and finished the season 30th in the NFL in passing. Adding a receiver could be a first step in getting back into the playoffs.
With the No. 15 pick in the draft, the 49ers take: Jaelen Strong, WR -- Arizona State
2014 Record: 9-7 Strength of Schedule: .447
Notes: It seems that the Texans have need for three positions here, but only two are viable because grabbing a quarterback at Pick 16 isn't realistic. Instead of going with a defensive tackle, Houston will add an offensive weapon.
With the No. 16 pick in the draft, the Texans take: Devin Funchess, WR -- Michigan
2014 Record: 9-7 Strength of Schedule: .512
Notes: The Chargers could really use help along the offensive line, but this is also a team that gave up 124.1 rushing yards per game.
With the No. 17 pick in the draft, the Chargers take: Malcom Brown, DT -- Texas
2014 Record: 9-7 Strength of Schedule: .512
Notes: There is, without question, need for a wide receiver in this draft. But five have already gone off the board in the first 16 picks, so Kansas City will wait until later. Offensive line is the richest position of need right now.
With the No. 18 pick in the draft, the Chiefs take: La' el Collins, OT -- LSU
2014 Record: 9-7 (Buffalo) Strength of Schedule: .516
Notes: Cleveland added an offensive weapon at No. 12, and now should work toward fixing a bad run defense.
With the No. 19 pick in the draft, the Browns take: Danny Shelton, DT -- Washington
2014 Record: 10-6 Strength of Schedule: .490
Notes: I'm not ready to throw Brett Hundley into the first-round mix of quarterbacks, and there's not enough ammo the Eagles woul dbe willing to give up to make a move for Marcus Mariota. Philadelphia will look for secondary help.
With the No. 20 pick in the draft, the Eagles take: Marcus Peters, CB -- Washington
2014 Record: 10-5-1 Strength of Schedule: .498
Notes: It's time for the Bengals to look to reload along the offensive line, and Andy Dalton could benefit from an upgraded pass-protection unit.
With the No. 21 pick in the draft, the Chargers take: Ereck Flowers, OT -- Miami
2014 Record: 11-5 Strength of Schedule: .451
Notes: While the Steelers could take a defensive tackle with this pick, or an offensive lineman, they'll have trouble passing up this top corner.
With the No. 22 pick in the draft, the Steelers take: Trae Waynes, CB -- Michigan State
2014 Record: 11-5 Strength of Schedule: .471
Notes: The Lions have a fantastic run-stopping defensive line, but it's about to get decimated by free agency. If lucky, Detroit will find a way to bring either Nick Fairley or Ndamukong Suh back, and add through the draft.
With the No. 23 pick in the draft, the Lions take: Eddie Goldman, DT -- Florida State
2014 Record: 11-5 Strength of Schedule: .523
Notes: There are a number of directions Arizona could go here, but it's either too early (running back) or there's no one available (quarterback, pass-rusher) that makes a ton of sense. Offensive line is still an area of need.
With the No. 24 pick in the draft, the Cardinals take: Ronnie Stanley, OT -- Notre Dame
2014 Record: 7-8-1 Strength of Schedule: .490
Notes: The name T.J. Clemmings is starting to become very popular in pre-draft circles, and the Panthers are in need of upgrading along the offensive line.
With the No. 25 pick in the draft, the Panthers take: T.J. Clemmings, OT -- Pittsburgh
2014 Record: 10-6 Strength of Schedule: .475
Notes: Melvin Gordon makes a lot of sense here for the Ravens, and not just because it's an area of need. He could flourish in Baltimore, enough so that the risk of taking a running back in the first round is negated.
With the No. 26 pick in the draft, the Steelers take: Melvin Gordon, RB -- Wisconsin
2014 Record: 11-5 Strength of Schedule: .479
Notes: Only two quarterbacks in the NFL were pressured more frequently than Andrew Luck in 2014. It's time to get him some more protection and imagine how much better he could be with an extra quarter of a second to throw the football.
With the No. 27 pick in the draft, the Colts take: Brandon Scherff, OT -- Iowa
2014 Record: 12-4 Strength of Schedule: .445
Notes: The Cowboys finished 26th in the NFL after allowing 251.9 passing yards per game in 2014. Dallas could go with a corner here to help fix that, or add a pass-rusher.
With the No. 28 pick in the draft, the Cowboys take: Danielle Hunter, DE -- LSU
2014 Record: 12-4 Strength of Schedule: .482
Notes: It seems like a safe bet to have Green Bay add to its defense in the first round. Offensive needs can be addressed later, it's time to look at the middle of the Packers' defense.
With the No. 29 pick in the draft, the Packers take: Benardrick McKinney, ILB -- Mississippi State
2014 Record: 12-4 Strength of Schedule: .514
Notes: The Patriots could look at a cornerback here to help with a pass defense that allowed 239.8 yards per game through the air. A receiver makes sense too.
With the No. 30 pick in the draft, the Patriots take: Kevin Johnson, CB -- Wake Forest
2014 Record: 12-4 Strength of Schedule: .521
Notes: Offensive line help is needed in Denver, as are upgrades in the secondary and possibly running back.
With the No. 31 pick in the draft, the Broncos take: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT -- Texas A&M
2014 Record: 12-4 Strength of Schedule: .525
Notes: The Seahawks have been crushed with injuries along the defensive line, and Bennett could bring some versatility to this unit.
With the No. 32 pick in the draft, the Seahawks take: Michael Bennett, DT -- Ohio State