College Football

Washington vs. USC: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Nov. 2, 2023 1:17 p.m. ET

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Two of the nation's strongest passing offenses meet when the No. 5 Washington Huskies (8-0) take college football's first-ranked passing offense into a matchup with the No. 24 USC Trojans (7-2), who have the No. 7 passing offense, on Saturday, November 4. The Huskies are 3-point favorites. 

The Huskies beat the Stanford Cardinal, 42-33, in their last contest. The Trojans beat the California Golden Bears, 50-49, in their last game.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between Washington and USC — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz. 

Washington vs. USC Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
• Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California
• TV: ABC
• Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Washington vs. USC Prediction

• Pick ATS: Washington (-3)  
• Pick OU: Under (76.5) 
• Prediction: Washington 36, USC 33

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Geoff Schwartz

The total in this Pac-12 matchup is hilariously high, hovering around 76 points since the opening line hit on Sunday. It's a total fit for the offensive firepower combined with the lack of defense displayed by both teams at certain points of the season. 

The Trojans offense hasn’t even been crisp at times and is still sixth in points per drive, third in explosive play rate and has scored tons of points against defenses like Washington all season. 

On the other side is the Husky offense, which is first in explosive play rate and fifth in points per drive. Even with the recent struggles of Husky quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who has seen his completion percentage hover around 60% in the last three games, the offense has barely missed a beat. 

There was one bad game against Arizona State, followed by 42 points last weekend in Palo Alto. 

Both of these defenses post horrific numbers, and it’s honestly surprising Washington doesn’t allow more points. 

Let’s start with USC, who came into the season wanting to upgrade its defense. Sadly, there’s an argument to be made that the defense has been worse this season. 

USC ranks 97th in points per drive, 118th in tackle success rate and 109th in explosive play rate. 

For what it’s worth, the Trojans stop the pass better than the run, which is a positive heading into this game. 

On the other side, Washington’s defense is low-key not very good either. It is best at limiting explosive plays and being more bend but don’t break, as it is 112th in yards allowed per drive. It is ranked 97th in third-down defense, 124th in tackle success rate and 133rd in sack rate. 

Translation: The Huskies are not going to stop USC in this game, meaning the Over is absolutely the play.  

Also — are we sure USC can’t win straight up? 

I just mentioned all of Washington’s defensive numbers and its relative struggles in beating Arizona State and Stanford. I know USC isn’t playing its best football lately, but we know it can score against Washington. The Trojans are still fighting for wins, as evidenced by their 14-point fourth-quarter comeback victory over Cal last weekend. 

I think we are writing off this Trojans team too quickly, and if this number gets to four, I’m going to take the Trojans and the points. 

PICK: Over 76 points scored by both teams combined

Will Washington vs USC determine the Pac 12 race?

Washington vs. USC Betting Insights

• Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Huskies 40, Trojans 37.
• The Huskies have a 60.6% chance to collect the win in this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Trojans have a 43.7% implied probability.
• Washington is 3-4-1 ATS this season.
• USC has won just two games against the spread this season.

Washington vs. USC: 2023 Stats Comparison

Washington 2023 Key Players

USC 2023 Key Players

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Geoff Schwartz