Ways to bet the Kentucky Derby, tips and long-shot bets: 'Just Steel has a chance'
The Kentucky Derby is often termed the greatest two minutes in sports. The main reason why is the excitement of the historic race itself, of course.
But just as exciting: The countless ways one can get involved in betting on Kentucky Derby odds. The possibilities are plentiful, and you don’t need to be a seasoned bettor on the ponies to enjoy getting a wager down.
"A newcomer to betting the Derby will love it, because there are so many ways to pick your winner or bet the race," said Chris Fallica, FOX Sports wagering expert and huge horse racing aficionado.
Fallica helps dive into odds to win the Kentucky Derby, with his insights on the favorites, and the horses he thinks are worth backing to win the 150th Run for the Roses.
Will Fierceness Be Fierce?
After Friday’s post-position draw, Fierceness opened as the 5/2 Kentucky Derby favorite. He has the résumé to back that up. Atop his credentials is a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 3. And in his most recent start, he won the Florida Derby on March 30.
In between, though, Fierceness settled for third in the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3. And more glaringly, in the run-up to the Breeders’ Cup, Fierceness took seventh in the Oct. 7 Champagne Stakes.
"The biggest question in the race is, which Fierceness will we see? The one from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby, or the one from the Champagne and Holy Bull?" Fallica said. "Most, if not all, handicappers agree that if he breaks and gets an easy lead, it’s over. However, the couple of times he hasn’t had things his own way, it hasn’t worked out.
"He’s yet to show he can overcome adversity."
And there could be plenty of adversity to overcome. As of Wednesday afternoon, Fierceness leads a maxed-out field of 20 horses. Plus, the spectacle of the Kentucky Derby itself can be challenging. Further, Fierceness will break from the 16th post.
"Will he start slow in a 20-horse field in front of over 100,000 people?" Fallica queried. "The one thing I’m most confident about in this race is that we’re not going to be sitting here Saturday night saying, ‘Fierceness ran a really good third place.’
"He either wins or is off the board."
At least one bettor anticipates a win.
Ed DeRosa, horse racing odds expert and vice president of content for Horse Racing Nation, said a $100,000 bet landed Wednesday morning on Fierceness to win. As such, Fierceness is now a stronger favorite at 3/5 in Kentucky Derby odds.
Next In Line
Sierra Leone opened as the 3/1 second choice, and though he remains No. 2, he’s slid out to 8/1 in parimutuel betting. He’s coming off back-to-back wins, in the Risen Star on Feb. 17 and the Blue Grass Stakes on April 6.
But Fallica won’t be lining up behind Sierra Leone to win this Saturday.
"Sierra Leone is a toss-away from the win spot for me. Drawing post position 2 will be too hard to overcome," Fallica said. "He is going to have to avoid getting slammed into the rail at the start, then [fall] all the way back, and then try to pass 19 horses through all that traffic.
"He may prove to be a generational type of horse. But even the great Curlin could do no better than a third-place finish when he drew post 2 in the Derby."
Curlin was third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, and he followed up with a win in the Preakness, then was second by a head to Rags to Riches in the Belmont Stakes.
Catching Freedom was installed as the 8/1 third choice when Kentucky Derby odds went up last Friday. As of Wednesday afternoon, he’s the 11/1 co-third choice with Forever Young.
In his most recent race, Catching Freedom won the March 23 Louisiana Derby. He also won the Smarty Jones on Jan. 1, and in between those victories, he ran third to Sierra Leone and Track Phantom in the Risen Star. Saturday, Catching Freedom will break from the No. 4 post, which is concerning for Fallica.
"I can’t get there with Catching Freedom on top, either. He needs to break better to avoid the same issues that will likely plague Sierra Leone," Fallica said. "I also don’t think he has the turn of foot that Sierra Leone has. He’s more of a grinder, and everything has to go right for a runner like that."
On the plus side for Catching Freedom: Jockey Flavien Prat.
"Catching Freedom probably has the best jockey in the race to work out the best possible trip. But he’s certainly going to be an underlay Saturday. I’ll keep my investment on him to the underneath spots in the trifecta and superfecta," Fallica said.
Just Right
So who will Fallica key in on come Saturday at Churchill Downs? Two horses with some name similarity: Just a Touch and Just Steel.
Just a Touch has only three races under his belt, all in 2024. The Colt won a maiden special weight race of six furlongs, then on March 2 ran second to Deterministic in the Gotham Stakes. Just a Touch followed with a second-place finish to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass.
He’ll break from the eighth post on Saturday.
"Just a Touch is proven on an off track, should the weather turn. He also could fall into a perfect trip behind Fierceness, Forever Young, Track Phantom and whomever else is on the lead," Fallica said. "Go back and watch the Blue Grass. Just a Touch was chasing a rabbit for Sierra Leone and still ran huge, finishing well clear of third-place finisher [Epic Ride].
"Here, he can be a bit further back off such a hot pace and finish even stronger."
Just a Touch opened 10/1 and is currently 23/1. Meanwhile, Just Steel — who will start from the No. 6 slot — opened 20/1 and has since slid out to 44/1. But the colt is well-raced heading to Churchill Downs, including in key Derby preps.
Just Steel has a trio of second-place finishes this year: in the Smarty Jones behind winner Catching Freedom; in the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes behind Mystik Dan; and most recently in the March 30 Arkansas Derby behind Muth.
"It’s been a while since [trainer] D. Wayne Lukas even hit the board with a Derby runner. But Just Steel has a chance here," Fallica said. "His race in the Arkansas Derby was huge, and he should be able to handle the stretch to 1¼ miles. The questions here are, was the last race bias-aided, and can he string together two consecutive trips, which will be required to win on Saturday?"
One More for the Road
Fallica pointed to one more horse catching his eye on the Kentucky Derby odds board: Resilience.
The colt drew a far outside post at No. 19 and opened 20/1. As of Wednesday afternoon, Resilience was at 36/1 in parimutuel odds. He took fourth in the Feb. 17 Risen Star — won by Sierra Leone — then followed April 6 with a victory in the Wood Memorial.
"This horse has matured a bunch at age 3, and the addition of blinkers has really helped him focus," Fallica said. "He wasn’t embarrassed at all in the Risen Star by Sierra Leone, which was his first start against winners."
Another key factor in Resilience’s favor: Trainer Bill Mott, who has two Triple Crown wins to his credit. Country House won the 2019 Kentucky Derby as a 65/1 long shot. And in 2010, Drosselmeyer won the Belmont Stakes at 13/1.
"Mott also has a runner-up finish in the Bemont with 55/1 shot Vision and Verse. So he’s certainly live any time he sends out a price horse," Fallica said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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