Auburn Tigers
WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 1 Predictions
Auburn Tigers

WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 1 Predictions

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:51 p.m. ET

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. 

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The first week of the college football season is often the most challenging for the WhatIfSports.com college football simulation prediction engine. We need stats to power the guts of the computers and all we have, in some cases, is a shell of what was the 2013 Wisconsin Badgers, 2013 LSU Tigers, 2013 Georgia Bulldogs, and 2013 Clemson Tigers.

The math we often use heading into Week 1 is basic addition and subtraction. Who left for the NFL or graduated? Who's new? Do they have a new coach? We concentrate on how many starters return on both sides of the ball as offensive and defensive tendencies seem to carry over more times than not.

ADVERTISEMENT

All those depth charts upgrades and downgrades, statistical trends and minutiae power the advanced algorithms which calculate our college football simulation predictions.

With that known, we've doubled up our Whatifsports.com Game of the Week and are showcasing two game predictions to kick off the 2014 college football season.

Game of the Week I: Wisconsin vs. LSU (at Houston NRG Stadium)

The Badgers enter the 2014 season as one of the best Big Ten teams, but historically a bust once they leave the cozy confines of the conference. Wisconsin has lost six out of their last seven bowl games.

Joel Stave returns at quarterback, but he lost his starting gig to junior Tanner McEvoy. McEvoy started games at wide receiver and safety last season for the Badgers, but has yet to start at quarterback outside of spring practice and a few in-house scrimmages.

With the inexperience at quarterback, red-shirt junior running back Melvin Gordon should pick up right where he left off in 2013. Gordon averaged nearly eight yards per carry for over 1,600 yards with 12 rushing touchdowns. The Badgers have finished with a Top 15 rushing offense every season since 2008.

Only three defensive starters return in 2014 - two cornerbacks and a safety. So, the Badgers' defense that finished with the sixth-best scoring defense (16.3 PAPG) is about to embrace a rebuilding year.

LSU lost quarterback Zach Mettenberger (Titans), Jarvis Landry (Dolphins), Odell Beckham Jr. (Giants), and Jeremy Hill (Bengals) to the NFL.

As of press time - five days before the game - LSU had yet to name a starting quarterback. Sophomore Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris are competing for the nod, but Les Miles loves these types of mind games. So, it shouldn't come as a surprise. As for how the staring QB decision will impact the simulation engine, it won't sway it. Jennings only threw 29 pass attempts last season, while Harris enjoys all the benefits of a freshman ranking within our engine (think average or slightly below).

Behind the Tigers' new starting quarterback is five-star recruit Leonard Fournette who is about to showcase the skills that made him the top recruit in the nation. According to his resume, he average over 180 rushing yards per game as a freshman at St. Augustine (LA). He finished with 62 rushing touchdowns for his career (plus 15 receiving).

We simulated the Badgers and Tigers 101 times and it's LSU coming away with the win 53 percent of the time by an average score of 23-22.

Game of the Week II: Clemson at Georgia

After losing Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant and running back Roderick McDowell, the Tigers' defense should shine brightest early in the season for Dabo Swinney.

The defense is led by Vic Beasley, who recorded 13 sacks with 23 tackles last season. Six more starters also return to the 24th-ranked scoring defense in the land (22.2 PAPG). The Tigers ranked 16th against the pass and 53rd against the rush (155.6 RYAPG) last season. The struggles against the rush could be the opening Georgia needs to secure a Week 1 win - more on that in a second.

On offense, Clemson promoted senior Cole Stoudt to replace Boyd. He completed nearly 80 percent of his passes with five touchdowns in mop-up duty last season for the Tigers. Again, there are so many first-time starters around him, the learning curve could take some time to retool the offense in 2014.

Many pundits believe Georgia has the personnel to win the division. Hutson Mason replaces Aaron Murray behind center, but one of the nation's top running backs, Todd Gurley, returns for his junior season. Gurley missed three games last year, but still racked up over 1,400 total yards with 16 touchdowns and 6.0 yards per rush average. He's a stud and main cog in the offense. Gurley could carve up the Tigers' rush defense.

The Bulldogs defense isn't going to flip the script overnight and that means their 78th-ranked scoring defense of a year ago - 29.0 PAPG - will continue to allow the opposition to find the end zone.

We simulated the Tigers and Bulldogs 101 times and the computers like Georgia 57.9 percent of the time by an average score of 25-24.

College Football Week 1 Predictions
Matchup Win% Avg Score  
William & Mary Tribe 5.0 7 Boxscore
Virginia Tech Hokies 95.0 45  
Elon Phoenix 5.0 9 Boxscore
Duke Blue Devils 95.0 53  
Liberty Flames 5.0 8 Boxscore
North Carolina Tar Heels 95.0 48  
Villanova Wildcats 5.0 6 Boxscore
Syracuse Orange 95.0 42  
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens 5.0 9 Boxscore
Pittsburgh Panthers 95.0 46  
Wofford Terriers 5.0 9 Boxscore
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 95.0 44  
Georgia Southern Eagles 34.7 19 Boxscore
North Carolina State Wolfpack 65.3 26  
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 47.5 22 Boxscore
Louisville Cardinals 52.5 23  
UCLA Bruins 75.7 27 Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers 24.3 16  
Youngstown State Penguins 5.0 7 Boxscore
Illinois Fighting Illini 95.0 45  
Indiana State Sycamores 5.0 7 Boxscore
Indiana Hoosiers 95.0 50  
UNI Panthers 5.0 8 Boxscore
Iowa Hawkeyes 95.0 46  
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 5.0 8 Boxscore
Michigan State Spartans 95.0 48  
James Madison Dukes 5.0 8 Boxscore
Maryland Terrapins 95.0 44  
Eastern Illinois Panthers 5.0 9 Boxscore
Minnesota Golden Gophers 95.0 45  
Appalachian State Mountaineers 13.9 15 Boxscore
Michigan Wolverines 86.1 28  
Florida Atlantic Owls 25.7 17 Boxscore
Nebraska Cornhuskers 74.3 28  
California Golden Bears 39.6 21 Boxscore
Northwestern Wildcats 60.4 25  
Western Michigan Broncos 39.6 21 Boxscore
Purdue Boilermakers 60.4 24  
Colgate Raiders 5.0 6 Boxscore
Ball State Cardinals 95.0 46  
Duquesne Dukes 5.0 8 Boxscore
Buffalo Bulls 95.0 41  
New Hampshire Wildcats 5.0 7 Boxscore
Toledo Rockets 95.0 45  
Presbyterian Blue Hose 5.0 9 Boxscore
Northern Illinois Huskies 95.0 47  
Morgan State Bears 5.0 7 Boxscore
Eastern Michigan Eagles 95.0 38  
Howard Bison 5.0 7 Boxscore
Akron Zips 95.0 41  
Chattanooga Mocs 5.0 6 Boxscore
Central Michigan Chippewas 95.0 40  
Ohio Bobcats 52.5 28 Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes 47.5 25  
Boston College Eagles 79.7 27 Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen 20.3 16  
Marshall Thundering Herd 94.1 34 Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks 5.9 16  
Portland State Vikings 5.0 9 Boxscore
Oregon State Beavers 95.0 49  
UC Davis Aggies 5.0 7 Boxscore
Stanford Cardinal 95.0 49  
Idaho State Bengals 5.0 9 Boxscore
Utah Utes 95.0 46  
Weber State Wildcats 5.0 8 Boxscore
Arizona State Sun Devils 95.0 48  
South Dakota Coyotes 5.0 8 Boxscore
Oregon Ducks 95.0 51  
UNLV Rebels 28.7 20 Boxscore
Arizona Wildcats 71.3 28  
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 32.7 21 Boxscore
Washington State Cougars 67.3 28  
Fresno State Bulldogs 38.6 22 Boxscore
USC Trojans 61.4 26  
Colorado State Rams 61.4 26 Boxscore
vs. Colorado Buffaloes 38.6 23  
South Dakota State Jackrabbits 5.0 8 Boxscore
Missouri Tigers 95.0 47  
UTM Skyhawks 5.0 9 Boxscore
Kentucky Wildcats 95.0 40  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 13.9 17 Boxscore
Mississippi State Bulldogs 86.1 28  
Idaho Vandals 14.9 15 Boxscore
Florida Gators 85.1 30  
West Virginia Mountaineers 18.8 16 Boxscore
vs. Alabama Crimson Tide 81.2 28  
Arkansas Razorbacks 26.7 17 Boxscore
Auburn Tigers 73.3 27  
Temple Owls 34.7 20 Boxscore
Vanderbilt Commodores 65.3 25  
Texas A&M Aggies 38.1 25 Boxscore
South Carolina Gamecocks 61.9 27  
Clemson Tigers 42.1 24 Boxscore
Georgia Bulldogs 57.9 25  
Wisconsin Badgers 47.0 22 Boxscore
vs. LSU Tigers 53.0 23  
Utah State Aggies 48.5 21 Boxscore
Tennessee Volunteers 51.5 22  
Boise State Broncos 48.5 25 Boxscore
vs. Ole Miss Rebels 51.5 26  
Rice Owls 25.2 19 Boxscore
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 74.8 28  
Ohio State Buckeyes 70.3 27 Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen 29.7 21  
North Dakota State Bison 5.0 9 Boxscore
Iowa State Cyclones 95.0 46  
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 5.0 8 Boxscore
Kansas State Wildcats 95.0 49  
Samford Bulldogs 5.0 7 Boxscore
TCU Horned Frogs 95.0 44  
Central Arkansas Bears 5.0 6 Boxscore
Texas Tech Red Raiders 95.0 50  
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 12.9 18 Boxscore
Oklahoma Sooners 87.1 31  
SMU Mustangs 14.9 18 Boxscore
Baylor Bears 85.1 32  
North Texas Mean Green 41.6 20 Boxscore
Texas Longhorns 58.4 26  
Florida State Seminoles 70.3 31 Boxscore
vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys 29.7 22  
Savannah State Tigers 5.0 9 Boxscore
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 95.0 44  
Hampton Pirates 5.0 9 Boxscore
Old Dominion Monarchs 95.0 44  
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 5.0 9 Boxscore
FIU Golden Panthers 95.0 29  
Troy Trojans 58.4 28 Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers 41.6 25  
Bowling Green Falcons 67.3 28 Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 32.7 24  
North Dakota 5.0 8 Boxscore
San Jose State Spartans 95.0 44  
Montana Grizzlies 5.0 8 Boxscore
Wyoming Cowboys 95.0 46  
Nicholls Colonels 5.0 7 Boxscore
Air Force Falcons 95.0 42  
Southern Utah Thunderbirds 5.0 9 Boxscore
Nevada Wolf Pack 95.0 44  
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 5.0 7 Boxscore
San Diego State Aztecs 95.0 45  
UTEP Miners 29.7 22 Boxscore
New Mexico Lobos 70.3 29  
Washington Huskies 78.2 28 Boxscore
@ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 21.8 17  
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 5.0 7 Boxscore
Texas State Bobcats 95.0 42  
Southern University Jaguars 5.0 6 Boxscore
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 95.0 46  
Montana State Bobcats 5.0 7 Boxscore
Arkansas State Red Wolves 95.0 42  
Abilene Christian Wildcats 5.0 8 Boxscore
Georgia State Panthers 95.0 39  
Cal Poly Mustangs 5.0 9 Boxscore
New Mexico State Aggies 95.0 39  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 46.0 20 Boxscore
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 54.0 22  
Austin Peay Governors 5.0 9 Boxscore
Memphis Tigers 95.0 40  
Western Carolina Catamounts 5.0 6 Boxscore
South Florida Bulls 95.0 43  
North Carolina Central Eagles 5.0 9 Boxscore
East Carolina Pirates 95.0 44  
UTSA Roadrunners 43.6 24 Boxscore
Houston Cougars 56.4 28  
Tulane Green Wave 47.5 20 Boxscore
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 52.5 22  
Penn State Nittany Lions 56.9 25 Boxscore
vs. UCF Knights 43.1 23  
BYU Cougars 74.3 28 Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies 25.7 18  

For additional statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.

share


Get more from Auburn Tigers Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more