Boise State Broncos

WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 11 Predictions

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 4:32 p.m. ET

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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams.

Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Ohio State at Michigan State

Remember when former Ohio State president Gordon Gee said Boise State and TCU shouldn't get a chance to play for the BCS National Championship because "we don't play the little sisters of the poor." Well, something must have changed since Gee left to run West Virginia University because the Buckeyes 2014 schedule is Tempur-Pedic soft.

OSU's only loss came at home to Virginia Tech - a team currently looking at a 4-5 record, seventh in the ACC. In the six games that have followed, the Buckeyes are averaging more than 51 points per win, but the toughest challenger has been a five-win Cincinnati squad.

Despite this, an upset win in East Lansing against No. 8 Michigan State would boost the No. 16 Buckeyes into the top 10 with their second-string quarterback running the offense. Freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 1,856 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Like so many recent OSU quarterbacks, Barrett also moves the chains with his legs with 106 carries (second on team) for nearly 500 yards with a team-high six touchdowns.

Running back Ezekiel Elliott is nearly tied with Northwestern's Justin Jackson for the conference rushing lead among sophomores with over 700 yards with five touchdowns to-date. Sophomore Michael Thomas leads the receiver corps with 28 receptions for 447 yards with six touchdowns. The uber-underclass offense currently ranks 15th in the national in total yards per game, but their strength of schedule ranks 63rd. Keep that in mind when you hear the Buckeyes' defense is eighth in the country (300 yards allowed per game) and ranks inside the top 20 in scoring defense as they allow less than 20 points per contest.

The Spartans defense ranks inside the Top 15 against the rush, pass and, naturally, total yards - 279 yards allowed per game. Their 20.3 points allowed per game (22nd in country) are skewed a little due to Oregon ringing up 46 points on them early in the season and Purdue hanging 31 on them in a loss a few weeks ago.

Connor Cook is completing better than 60 percent of his passes for 1,868 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. Running back Jeremy Langford is closing in on 1,000 rushing yards with a team-high 10 touchdowns. Tony Lippett has created a nice balance in the rush and passing game and is the leading receiver by far with 42 receptions for 889 yards with nine touchdowns.

This is one of those games that could come down to turnover margin, which MSU has a slight statistical advantage of +1.50, while the Buckeyes are +1.00 turnover margin per game. In ratio form, MSU is 22:10 and OSU is 20:12.

We simulated the Buckeyes and Spartans 101 times and the computers like Michigan State to win 53 percent of the time by an average score of 19.9-19.7.

College Football Week 11 Predictions
Matchup	Win %	Avg. Score
Virginia Cavaliers	29.7	18.2	Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles	70.3	27.2
Louisville Cardinals	54.5	19.9	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	45.5	18.8
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	66.3	24.6	Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	33.7	20.0
Duke Blue Devils	70.3	26.5	Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange	29.7	17.7
Clemson Tigers	76.2	24.4	Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	23.8	14.8
Ohio State Buckeyes	47.0	19.7	Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans	53.0	19.9
Penn State Nittany Lions	55.9	23.4	Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers	44.1	21.6
Michigan Wolverines	58.9	21.5	Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats	41.1	17.5
Iowa Hawkeyes	60.9	21.2	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	39.1	17.0
Wisconsin Badgers	75.2	25.5	Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers	24.8	17.7
Buffalo Bulls	48.5	22.5	Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats	51.5	22.6
Bowling Green Falcons	53.5	25.5	Boxscore
@ Akron Zips	46.5	22.7
Northern Illinois Huskies	76.2	27.8	Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals	23.8	19.3
Toledo Rockets	76.7	28.4	Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	23.3	19.5
Colorado Buffaloes	21.8	20.3	Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats	78.2	30.8
Washington State Cougars	40.6	29.3	Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers	59.4	32.3
Oregon Ducks	53.5	24.4	Boxscore
@ Utah Utes	46.5	22.4
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	55.9	25.3	Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	44.1	23.9
UCLA Bruins	59.4	25.1	Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies	40.6	22.3
Presbyterian Blue Hose	5.0	7.7	Boxscore
@ Ole Miss Rebels	95.0	49.4
UTM Skyhawks	5.0	7.5	Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	95.0	52.0
Texas A&M Aggies	37.6	22.4	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	62.4	27.5
Georgia Bulldogs	62.4	26.1	Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats	37.6	20.9
Alabama Crimson Tide	64.9	23.7	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	35.1	19.9
Florida Gators	70.8	22.6	Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	29.2	15.8
Connecticut Huskies	74.8	25.5	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	25.2	19.3
Kansas State Wildcats	45.5	23.5	Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs	54.5	24.0
Baylor Bears	56.9	25.5	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	43.1	22.9
West Virginia Mountaineers	67.3	27.1	Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns	32.7	20.4
Iowa State Cyclones	70.3	23.8	Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks	29.7	18.9
UTSA Roadrunners	31.7	18.8	Boxscore
@ Rice Owls	68.3	25.3
FIU Golden Panthers	45.5	22.5	Boxscore
@ Old Dominion Monarchs	54.5	24.9
UTEP Miners	49.5	29.2	Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	50.5	30.0
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	51.5	26.1	Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers	48.5	26.0
Florida Atlantic Owls	53.0	22.8	Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green	47.0	20.9
Marshall Thundering Herd	88.1	34.2	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	11.9	21.9
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	31.7	22.3	Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams	68.3	31.3
Idaho Vandals	31.2	20.7	Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs	68.8	27.2
San Jose State Spartans	56.4	29.0	Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	43.6	25.4
Air Force Falcons	60.9	26.9	Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels	39.1	24.6
Utah State Aggies	67.3	27.4	Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys	32.7	22.2
Boise State Broncos	67.3	32.3	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	32.7	24.4
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	36.6	21.8	Boxscore
@ Appalachian State Mountaineers	63.4	25.7
South Alabama Jaguars	46.5	22.4	Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	53.5	24.5
Georgia State Panthers	46.0	25.4	Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans	54.0	28.1
Georgia Southern Eagles	52.5	26.8	Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats	47.5	25.0
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	58.9	27.9	Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies	41.1	23.5
SMU Mustangs	28.7	19.2	Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	71.3	28.3
Tulane Green Wave	37.6	19.6	Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars	62.4	23.7
Memphis Tigers	54.5	22.3	Boxscore
@ Temple Owls	45.5	21.9