Marcus Stroman

WhatIfSports AL Wild Card Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction: Baltimore advances to ALDS

Published Oct. 4, 2016 2:25 p.m. ET

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WhatIfSports simulated the 2016 American League Wild Card game 1,001 times using the recently announced playoff rosters and starting pitchers.

The visiting Baltimore Orioles surprise by winning the game 53.4 percent of the time. When the Orioles win the game, the average score is 8-4. When the Blue Jays win, the average score is 9-4.

Interested in the simulation details? View an example Box Score including play-by-play and player stats.

On average, the starting pitchers don't fare very well in the simulation. Chris Tillman’s starts result in a win in 35 percent of simulations, a loss in another 35 percent of simulations, and no decision the remaining 30 percent of the time. Marcus Stroman earns the win 33 percent of the time, with a loss occurring in 34 percent of simulations.

The Orioles bullpen struggles with a 6.20 ERA, despite a stellar performance by Zach Britton (1.30 ERA). The Blue Jays pen fares better with a 5.94 ERA with Liriano succeeding in a long relief role.

The high aggregate ERAs speak to the powerful offenses owned by both clubs and the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre.

At the dish, the Orioles were led by Manny Machado (.986 OPS) and Mark Trumbo (.996 OPS). The Blue Jays were powered by Edwin Encarnacion (1.111 OPS) and Josh Donaldson (1.117 OPS). Check out some more player stats from the simulation:

Baltimore Orioles Batting Stats from Simulation
Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jones, Adam	0.285	0.333	0.483	0.815
Machado, Manny	0.320	0.359	0.627	0.986
Trumbo, Mark	0.289	0.330	0.667	0.996
Kim, Hyun Soo	0.324	0.404	0.441	0.845
Wieters, Matt	0.271	0.321	0.519	0.841
Schoop, Jonathan	0.278	0.302	0.485	0.787
Davis, Chris	0.247	0.332	0.497	0.829
Bourn, Michael	0.261	0.314	0.349	0.664
Hardy, J.J.	0.275	0.318	0.443	0.760
Alvarez, Pedro	0.171	0.256	0.371	0.628
Reimold, Nolan	0.077	0.143	0.308	0.451
Flaherty, Ryan	0.600	0.600	0.600	1.200
Freiman, Nate	0.333	0.500	0.333	0.833
Toronto Blue Jays Batting Stats from Simulation
Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Travis, Devon	0.287	0.328	0.498	0.826
Tulowitzki, Troy	0.262	0.318	0.468	0.786
Encarnacion, Edwin	0.288	0.396	0.715	1.111
Donaldson, Josh	0.304	0.434	0.684	1.117
Pillar, Kevin	0.205	0.258	0.308	0.565
Martin, Russell	0.220	0.317	0.392	0.709
Bautista, Jose	0.244	0.411	0.519	0.929
Carrera, Ezequiel	0.241	0.341	0.355	0.697
Saunders, Michael	0.281	0.420	0.528	0.948
Barney, Darwin	0.296	0.345	0.333	0.678
Pompey, Dalton	0.400	0.429	0.500	0.929
Goins, Ryan	0.154	0.313	0.615	0.928

Interested in simulating the game yourself? Try MLB SimMatchup. Or, create your own Dream Team of current and historical players to challenge your favorite club.