Ole Miss Rebels

WhatIfSports college football Week 1 predictions: Florida State tops Ole Miss

Published Dec. 24, 2016 8:29 p.m. ET

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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. 

2015 in Review

There were 870 games during the 2015 college football season that involved at least one FBS program, and WhatIfSports generated predictions for all of them. In regular season and conference championship games, the college football simulation engine accurately predicted 663 out of 829 games (80.0 percent success rate). When looking at AP Top 25 teams only, the record was 249-60 (80.6 percent). In conference championship games, the engine was a perfect 8-0.

During bowl season, the simulation engine was 27-14, accurately predicting each College Football Playoff Semifinal, but missing the National Championship prediction.

For more on our 2015 performance, view our week-by-week accuracy, including Game of the Week and Upset picks.

Week 1 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups

No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Houston

Tom Herman took Houston to new heights in his first year as the head coach. The team went 13-1 and beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl. This year, Herman's dual-threat QB, Greg Ward Jr., is back. However, top receiver Demarcus Ayers is with the Steelers now. As for the Sooners, Baker Mayfield and Co., lost twice last season. Both defeats came when Oklahoma scored only 17 points. They averaged 43.5 points per game (fourth-best). Don't expect a low-scoring affair in this one as both teams know it's a long crawl back from a Week 1 loss.

According to our simulations, the Sooners win this matchup 54.5 percent of the time by an average score of 27.5-26.3.

No. 18 Georgia vs. No. 22 North Carolina

It's a new regime for the Bulldogs as Kirby Smart will get his shot at the place where he started. Smart was an administrative assistant in 1999 for Georgia and will now lead the 'Dawgs out of the tunnel as the head coach. The big news for the offense is that Nick Chubb was cleared to play. He suffered a leg injury in October and has been on the road to recovery ever since. The Tar Heels' ground game is stellar, too. Junior Elijah Hood rushed for 1,463 yards and 17 TDs last year. Also, Mitch Trubisky will finally get his opportunity to run the North Carolina offense. He filled in when Marquise Williams struggled and did a fine job.

When the dust settles, Georgia wins 52.0 percent of the contests by an average score of 28.6-28.1.

No. 20 USC vs. No. 1 Alabama

You gotta love when two big programs like USC and Alabama collide in Week 1, instead of those prototypical "tune-up" games. The Trojans and Tide meet in Jerry's World, where Nick Saban's boys started the 2015 regular season campaign. Last year, they beat Wisconsin, but this team is without stud running backs Derrick Henry (Titans) and Kenyan Drake (Dolphins). Bo Scarbrough is the new name to learn in the Bama backfield. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry (18 attempts) as a freshman. USC's leader from last season, Cody Kessler, is currently with the Browns. However, his favorite target from 2015, JuJu Smith-Schuster, is back. He caught 89 passes for 1,464 yards (16.3 yards per catch) and scored 10 TDs.

After the numbers were crunched, Alabama won this opener 61.9 percent of the time by an average score of 27.8-24.5.

No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Florida State

It's Monday Night Football of the college variety this week as the Rebels travel to the Sunshine State to take on the Seminoles in Orlando. We have a couple of dark horse Heisman candidates in this one. Chad Kelly threw for over 4,000 yards last year for Ole Miss. His offense averaged 40.8 points per game, too. However, Kelly's favorite target, Laquon Treadwell is a Viking. The Noles have Dalvin Cook to lean on for the running game. He tallied 1,691 yards (7.4 yards per rush) and scored 19 rushing touchdowns. They'll need Cook to carry the load now that freshman Deondre Francois has been named the starting quarterback.

FSU defended its home state 53.4 percent of the time by an average score of 28.7-27.8

Week 1 Upset Pick

Toledo (+3) at Arkansas State

I'm a product of the University of Toledo, so I always keep tabs on the Rockets. After Matt Campbell left for Iowa State, Jason Candle moved up the ladder into the head coaching role. Kareem Hunt is still the bell cow for Toledo. He rushed for 973 yards last year and scored 12 rushing touchdowns. Our predictions have Hunt and the rest of the Rockets shocking Arkansas State 58.0 percent of the time by an average score of 30.0-27.4.

In addition, view our Week 1 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.

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