WhatIfSports college football Week 10 predictions: 'Bama will top LSU
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 9 in Review
The upset (Oregon) and game to watch (Notre Dame) predictions were correct. Also, out of the 18 games played by AP Top 25 teams, the simulation engine composed a record of 17-1 (94.4 percent winners).
Week 9 Highlight: Texas A&M 35 - South Carolina 28
Instead of Kyle Allen, Kyler Murray started at QB for A&M. He threw for 223 yards and rushed for 156 yards, while also accounting for two scores. His Aggies were a double-digit favorite (-13.5), but our sim engine cultivated a closer outcome: 31.8-27.5 with A&M as the victors. The Gamecocks covered the spread as Brandon Wilds rushed for a 33-yard TD with 42 seconds remaining in the game. Hopefully, you were on the right side of that bad beat.
Week 9 Lowlight: Purdue 55 - Nebraska 45
It was an offensive explosion when the Boilermakers and Cornhuskers met on Saturday. Nebraska continues to struggle against the passing game. Out of 128 FBS programs, the Cornhuskers allow the fourth-most passing yards per game (315.9). Purdue's David Blough threw for 274 yards and four TDs in the win. With Tommy Armstrong Jr. in a walking boot, Ryker Fyfe took his place under center. He compiled 407 passing yards and four TDs. However, he also threw four interceptions. This final score was far from the 28.9-24.7 Nebraska victory our computers predicted.
Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 77.6 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 10 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 17 Florida State vs. No. 3 Clemson
Clemson hasn't "Clemson'd" yet this season as Dabo Swinney's boys are still undefeated. The Tigers have produced 40.6 points per game (11th-most in the FBS), including back-to-back 50+ point performances. As for the Seminoles, though they only have one blemish on their record, they have survived plenty of obstacles. Plus, the decision has yet to be made on who will play quarterback for the Noles. Sean Maguire was 23-35 for 348 yards and three TDs (zero INTs) against Syracuse. He was filling in for Everett Golson, who missed the game last week because of a concussion. Starting running back Dalvin Cook also sat out last week. His ankle injury allowed freshman Jacques Patrick to get the nod. He rushed for 162 yards and three TDs. If the projections are correct, Clemson will keep their undefeated streak alive by an average score of 29.3-27.2, winning 54.5 percent of the simulations.
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Oklahoma State
Here. We. Go. Without a conference championship game to determine the winner of the Big 12, a perfect season is almost a necessity to get into the Final Four. Three Big 12 teams are undefeated. After this week, the total will drop by at least one. Both the Horned Frogs and Cowboys are in the top seven in points scored per game. Both teams allow between 23-25 ppg on defense. Trevone Boykin is a potential Heisman candidate and is fifth in the nation with 2,927 passing yards. Oklahoma State prefers its two-quarterback system. Sophomore Mason Rudolph has the most playing time for 2015. He has thrown for almost 2,500 yards and has 12 passing touchdowns. Senior J.W. Walsh only has 296 passing yards, but has thrown nine TDs. Walsh is more of a running threat. He has 194 rushing yards on the season and leads the Cowboys with seven rushing touchdowns. In a nail-bitter, the simulations suggest TCU will win by an average score of 30.9-29.0, coming out on top in 50.5 percent of the results.
No. 4 LSU vs. No. 7 Alabama
This piece wouldn't be complete without an SEC showdown. The Tigers and Tide are one-two in the SEC West standings. They are also both coming off of a bye week. Though this battle has been lopsided (Alabama is 49-24 against LSU and has won the last three matchups), the Tigers actually do better when playing in Alabama. LSU is 16-22-2 in all LSU/Bama games played in the Heart of Dixie. Potential Heisman candidate Leonard Fournette has tallied 1,352 rushing yards with 15 rushing TDs. Both stats lead the nation among running backs. He has rushed for at least 150 yards and one score in each game this season. As a freshman, he only managed 79 rushing yards on 21 carries (3.8 yards per attempt) and was held out of the end zone against the Tide in 2014. That could be the reason why the computer projected an Alabama win 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 24.2-22.9.
Week 10 Upset Pick
Utah (+1) over Washington
Vegas hates Utah. Two weeks ago, Las Vegas favored USC over the then-undefeated Utes. The Trojans won 42-24. This week, the 4-4 Huskies are a one-point favorite over the 13th-ranked Utes. Though they have a .500 record, the Huskies have only allowed 16.9 points per game. Washington was also 17-12 winners over USC. That could be the factor behind the Vegas odds, but the Utes won 53.5 percent of the time by an average score of 27.8-27.2 in our cyber results.
College Football Week 10 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Syracuse Orange | 24.8 | 20.1 | Box Score |
| @ Louisville Cardinals | 75.2 | 27.9 | |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 40.9 | 25.1 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 59.1 | 28.4 | |
| Florida State Seminoles | 45.5 | 27.2 | Box Score |
| @ Clemson Tigers | 54.5 | 29.3 | |
| Duke Blue Devils | 46.7 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ North Carolina Tar Heels | 53.3 | 29.2 | |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack | 53.5 | 26.2 | Box Score |
| @ Boston College Eagles | 46.5 | 23.9 | |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 57.4 | 29.9 | Box Score |
| @ Pittsburgh Panthers | 42.6 | 26.8 | |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 20.8 | 22.9 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio State Buckeyes | 79.2 | 32.7 | |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 33.2 | 22.9 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan Wolverines | 66.8 | 29.1 | |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 46.5 | 22.2 | Box Score |
| @ Northwestern Wildcats | 53.5 | 24.5 | |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 50.9 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Purdue Boilermakers | 49.1 | 27.6 | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 62.4 | 30.7 | Box Score |
| @ Indiana Hoosiers | 37.6 | 25.8 | |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 63.9 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ Maryland Terrapins | 36.1 | 22.6 | |
| Michigan State Spartans | 67.3 | 31.3 | Box Score |
| @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | 32.7 | 24.4 | |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles | 39.6 | 27.1 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (OH) RedHawks | 60.4 | 30.5 | |
| Ball State Cardinals | 40.6 | 29.8 | Box Score |
| @ Western Michigan Broncos | 59.4 | 33.7 | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 41.6 | 26.9 | Box Score |
| @ Toledo Rockets | 58.4 | 30.5 | |
| Ohio Bobcats | 44.1 | 29.3 | Box Score |
| @ Bowling Green Falcons | 55.9 | 32.1 | |
| Akron Zips | 59.4 | 32.2 | Box Score |
| @ Massachusetts Minutemen | 40.6 | 28.9 | |
| Buffalo Bulls | 66.3 | 33.6 | Box Score |
| @ Kent State Golden Flashes | 33.7 | 28.8 | |
| Arizona Wildcats | 36.6 | 27.6 | Box Score |
| @ USC Trojans | 63.4 | 31.3 | |
| California Golden Bears | 42.6 | 31.2 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon Ducks | 57.4 | 31.6 | |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | 45.9 | 33.8 | Box Score |
| @ Washington State Cougars | 54.1 | 34.1 | |
| Utah Utes | 53.5 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ Washington Huskies | 46.5 | 27.2 | |
| Stanford Cardinal | 66.3 | 33.3 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado Buffaloes | 33.7 | 28.1 | |
| UCLA Bruins | 70.3 | 32.9 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon State Beavers | 29.7 | 25.2 | |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 26.7 | 21.6 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Gators | 73.3 | 28.2 | |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 41.2 | 24.0 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Bulldogs | 58.8 | 27.3 | |
| Auburn Tigers | 43.6 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ Texas A&M Aggies | 56.4 | 29.1 | |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 46.5 | 26.4 | Box Score |
| @ Ole Miss Rebels | 53.5 | 27.8 | |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | 46.5 | 26.6 | Box Score |
| @ Tennessee Volunteers | 53.5 | 29.5 | |
| LSU Tigers | 47.5 | 22.9 | Box Score |
| @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 52.5 | 24.2 | |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 58.4 | 27.1 | Box Score |
| @ Missouri Tigers | 41.6 | 23.3 | |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 30.7 | 23.3 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma Sooners | 69.3 | 29.9 | |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 36.6 | 23.9 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Longhorns | 63.4 | 27.6 | |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 44.6 | 32.0 | Box Score |
| @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 55.4 | 33.2 | |
| TCU Horned Frogs | 50.5 | 30.9 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | 49.5 | 29.0 | |
| Baylor Bears | 65.3 | 34.7 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas State Wildcats | 34.7 | 28.2 | |
| North Texas Mean Green | 30.2 | 22.8 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 69.8 | 30.6 | |
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 38.6 | 33.6 | Box Score |
| @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 61.4 | 36.7 | |
| Charlotte 49ers | 39.6 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ FIU Golden Panthers | 60.4 | 30.1 | |
| Old Dominion Monarchs | 46.2 | 28.9 | Box Score |
| @ UTSA Roadrunners | 53.8 | 30.5 | |
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 49.5 | 28.4 | Box Score |
| @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 50.5 | 29.3 | |
| Rice Owls | 52.5 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ UTEP Miners | 47.5 | 28.5 | |
| Army West Point Black Knights | 29.2 | 25.5 | Box Score |
| @ Air Force Falcons | 70.8 | 31.1 | |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 43.2 | 28.8 | Box Score |
| @ UNLV Rebels | 56.8 | 30.7 | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 51.3 | 30.4 | Box Score |
| @ Fresno State Bulldogs | 48.7 | 29.9 | |
| Colorado State Rams | 64.4 | 33.6 | Box Score |
| @ Wyoming Cowboys | 35.6 | 30.3 | |
| Utah State Aggies | 64.4 | 31.3 | Box Score |
| @ New Mexico Lobos | 35.6 | 27.0 | |
| BYU Cougars | 70.3 | 32.6 | Box Score |
| @ San Jose State Spartans | 29.7 | 25.9 | |
| Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 34.2 | 25.0 | Box Score |
| @ Troy Trojans | 65.8 | 30.0 | |
| Idaho Vandals | 40.6 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ South Alabama Jaguars | 59.4 | 29.6 | |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 47.5 | 28.8 | Box Score |
| @ Appalachian State Mountaineers | 52.5 | 29.6 | |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 47.7 | 30.8 | Box Score |
| @ Texas State Bobcats | 52.3 | 31.4 | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 55.4 | 31.6 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia State Panthers | 44.6 | 29.5 | |
| Navy Midshipmen | 42.6 | 27.4 | Box Score |
| @ Memphis Tigers | 57.4 | 29.7 | |
| UCF Knights | 45.7 | 26.3 | Box Score |
| @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 54.3 | 27.4 | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 47.9 | 32.2 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Cougars | 52.1 | 32.9 | |
| South Florida Bulls | 49.5 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ East Carolina Pirates | 50.5 | 30.3 | |
| Connecticut Huskies | 56.1 | 27.6 | Box Score |
| @ Tulane Green Wave | 43.9 | 26.1 | |
| Temple Owls | 81.7 | 32.1 | Box Score |
| @ SMU Mustangs | 18.3 | 22.2 |
In addition, view our Week 10 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
