WhatIfSports college football Week 11 predictions: Baylor improves to 9-0
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 10 in Review
Our Upset of the Week, Utah, won for the second-straight week, bringing us to a respectable 5-5 record. The Game to Watch, Alabama, also won for consecutive weeks. That record is a solid 7-3 on the year.
Week 10 Highlight: Northwestern 23 - Penn State 21
The computer results had the Wildcats winning by an average score of 24.5-22.2. So, by two points. Jack Mitchell made that prediction accurate by making a 35-yard game-winning field goal for Northwestern.
Week 10 Lowlight: Nebraska 39 - Michigan State 38
Typically, if most of the betting public is on one side, it doesn’t go well for them. That rang true, yet again, for this one. The 3.5-point favorite Spartans lost on a 30-yard pass from Tommy Armstrong to Brandon Reilly. On the game-winning play, Reilly went out of bounds before making the catch, but the refs said Reilly was forced out and was able to make the catch count. We had Michigan State winning by seven points in 67.3 percent of the simulations.
Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 77.6 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 11 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 20 Mississippi State
The Tide is rolling. Last week, they took down the unbeaten Tigers and are now in a prime position to make not only the SEC Championship, but also the four-team playoff. However, they must try not to look beyond their Week 11 opponent. The Bulldogs are on a four-game winning streak and recently produced 31 points on a Missouri defense that didn’t allow more than 21 points in a game before last Saturday. As for the recent history, Alabama has won seven straight against Mississippi State and hasn’t allowed more than 10 points in six of those seven contests (20 points allowed in 2014). By our conclusions, Alabama wins 58.4 percent of the time by a 27.1-23.2 determination.
No. 13 Memphis vs. No. 25 Houston
The Tigers stumbled last week as Navy handed Memphis its first loss of the season. Memphis has allowed at least 42 points in two of the past three games. Houston, on the other hand, has allowed more than 10 points once in the past four games. The Cougs are one of six undefeated FBS teams. However, they have the tough task of taking on Navy and Memphis within the next three weeks. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is tied for second in the country with 16 rushing touchdowns. He will look to expand on that total as his Cougars won 55 percent of simulations by a 28.9-27.3 average score.
No. 15 Oklahoma vs. No. 6 Baylor
Last week, there were three undefeated teams in the Big 12. Now, there are two. The Sooners will look to decrease that number by one after this week. Oklahoma has been dominant since its 24-17 loss to Texas. In its last four games, Oklahoma has averaged 58 points while allowing only 12.5 points per game. The Baylor Bears scored at least 56 points in every game until starting QB, Seth Russell, suffered a neck fracture. Last week was Baylor’s first game without Russell as the starter. Backup, Jarrett Stidham, led the Bears to a 31-24 win over Kansas State by throwing for 419 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. Expect another close outcome this week. Simulations suggest that Baylor would win 67.8 percent of the time by an average score of 30.2-26.6.
Week 11 Upset Pick
Virginia Tech (+3.5) over Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets surprised us all by defeating Florida State on October 24th. It has been their lone win in the past seven games. As for the Hokies, their season hasn’t been much better, but their defense has. Virginia Tech is allowing 20 yards and nearly two points less than Georgia Tech. Yet, they are the underdog. According to the computer’s projections, VaTech wins 64.9 percent of simulations by an average score of 27.2-22.6.
College Football Week 11 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 30.7 | 21.4 | Box Score |
| @ Louisville Cardinals | 69.3 | 27.3 | |
| Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 39.1 | 29.9 | Box Score |
| @ North Carolina Tar Heels | 60.9 | 33.1 | |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 43.6 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Duke Blue Devils | 56.4 | 29.1 | |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack | 45.5 | 25.5 | Box Score |
| @ Florida State Seminoles | 54.5 | 29.9 | |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 64.9 | 27.2 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 35.1 | 22.6 | |
| Clemson Tigers | 83.2 | 32.1 | Box Score |
| @ Syracuse Orange | 16.8 | 20.2 | |
| Maryland Terrapins | 17.8 | 23.2 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan State Spartans | 82.2 | 32.3 | |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 31.7 | 22.9 | Box Score |
| @ Northwestern Wildcats | 68.3 | 27.3 | |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 42.6 | 25.0 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa Hawkeyes | 57.4 | 27.0 | |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | 59.9 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 40.1 | 26.9 | |
| Michigan Wolverines | 63.4 | 28.5 | Box Score |
| @ Indiana Hoosiers | 36.6 | 23.6 | |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 73.3 | 32.8 | Box Score |
| @ Illinois Fighting Illini | 26.7 | 23.9 | |
| Kent State Golden Flashes | 41.6 | 27.3 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio Bobcats | 58.4 | 30.5 | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 55.4 | 30.1 | Box Score |
| @ Buffalo Bulls | 44.6 | 28.2 | |
| Akron Zips | 55.7 | 31.8 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (OH) RedHawks | 44.3 | 28.8 | |
| Toledo Rockets | 57.5 | 29.9 | Box Score |
| @ Central Michigan Chippewas | 42.5 | 27.4 | |
| Massachusetts Minutemen | 58.5 | 31.3 | Box Score |
| @ Eastern Michigan Eagles | 41.5 | 28.9 | |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 61.4 | 34.3 | Box Score |
| @ Western Michigan Broncos | 38.6 | 31.3 | |
| Oregon State Beavers | 41.6 | 28.4 | Box Score |
| @ California Golden Bears | 58.4 | 31.8 | |
| Washington Huskies | 43.6 | 27.7 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona State Sun Devils | 56.4 | 28.6 | |
| Washington State Cougars | 46.1 | 33.6 | Box Score |
| @ UCLA Bruins | 53.9 | 34.4 | |
| Oregon Ducks | 47.5 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Stanford Cardinal | 52.5 | 31.6 | |
| Utah Utes | 60.4 | 30.1 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona Wildcats | 39.6 | 25.9 | |
| USC Trojans | 67.3 | 35.0 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado Buffaloes | 32.7 | 28.9 | |
| Western Carolina Catamounts | 5.0 | 8.3 | Box Score |
| @ Texas A&M Aggies | 95.0 | 50.2 | |
| North Texas Mean Green | 20.8 | 19.9 | Box Score |
| @ Tennessee Volunteers | 79.2 | 32.1 | |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 47.5 | 25.9 | Box Score |
| @ LSU Tigers | 52.5 | 28.1 | |
| BYU Cougars | 52.3 | 25.8 | Box Score |
| @ Missouri Tigers | 47.7 | 24.9 | |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 55.9 | 26.7 | Box Score |
| @ Auburn Tigers | 44.1 | 25.0 | |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 58.4 | 27.1 | Box Score |
| @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | 41.6 | 23.2 | |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 61.4 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Vanderbilt Commodores | 38.6 | 24.4 | |
| Florida Gators | 69.3 | 29.4 | Box Score |
| @ South Carolina Gamecocks | 30.7 | 23.4 | |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 19.8 | 21.5 | Box Score |
| @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 80.2 | 30.7 | |
| Tulane Green Wave | 66.3 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Army West Point Black Knights | 33.7 | 23.5 | |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 16.8 | 23.7 | Box Score |
| @ TCU Horned Frogs | 83.2 | 33.7 | |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 32.2 | 26.6 | Box Score |
| @ Baylor Bears | 67.8 | 30.2 | |
| Texas Longhorns | 47.5 | 27.4 | Box Score |
| @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 52.5 | 28.3 | |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 49.1 | 32.8 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50.9 | 33.0 | |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys | 71.3 | 30.9 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa State Cyclones | 28.7 | 24.4 | |
| FIU Golden Panthers | 37.1 | 25.4 | Box Score |
| @ Marshall Thundering Herd | 62.9 | 29.0 | |
| UTEP Miners | 45.8 | 28.2 | Box Score |
| @ Old Dominion Monarchs | 54.2 | 29.4 | |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 55.4 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Charlotte 49ers | 44.6 | 26.3 | |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 56.4 | 29.7 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Atlantic Owls | 43.6 | 27.4 | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 64.4 | 30.1 | Box Score |
| @ Rice Owls | 35.6 | 27.1 | |
| New Mexico Lobos | 24.8 | 25.2 | Box Score |
| @ Boise State Broncos | 75.2 | 31.7 | |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 34.7 | 28.4 | Box Score |
| @ San Diego State Aztecs | 65.3 | 33.0 | |
| UNLV Rebels | 41.1 | 28.4 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado State Rams | 58.9 | 31.0 | |
| San Jose State Spartans | 48.6 | 29.9 | Box Score |
| @ Nevada Wolf Pack | 51.4 | 30.2 | |
| Utah State Aggies | 53.5 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ Air Force Falcons | 46.5 | 26.2 | |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 53.4 | 30.8 | Box Score |
| @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 46.6 | 29.9 | |
| Georgia State Panthers | 44.6 | 30.6 | Box Score |
| @ Texas State Bobcats | 55.4 | 32.2 | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 54.8 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ South Alabama Jaguars | 45.2 | 28.4 | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 59.4 | 29.7 | Box Score |
| @ Troy Trojans | 40.6 | 26.7 | |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers | 59.4 | 31.9 | Box Score |
| @ Idaho Vandals | 40.6 | 29.4 | |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 66.3 | 31.3 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 33.7 | 26.0 | |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 27.7 | 29.1 | Box Score |
| @ Cincinnati Bearcats | 72.3 | 37.2 | |
| SMU Mustangs | 31.2 | 24.7 | Box Score |
| @ Navy Midshipmen | 68.8 | 32.1 | |
| Memphis Tigers | 45.0 | 27.3 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Cougars | 55.0 | 28.9 | |
| Temple Owls | 60.4 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ South Florida Bulls | 39.6 | 24.0 |
In addition, view our Week 11 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
