WhatIfSports college football Week 11 predictions: Washington remains undefeated vs. USC
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 10 in Review
Game of the Week may as well be called Lock of the Week. Our simulating computer is now 9-1 after Ohio State won the GotW. Even our struggling Upset of the Week was a winner last week, as Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph passed all over Kansas State.
Nailed It: Indiana 33 - Rutgers 27
After trailing by 11 points in the third quarter, the Hoosiers rallied behind Devine Redding. He scored one rushing TD and one receiving TD as Indiana defeated Rutgers by six points. We predicted IU to win 55.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 30.6-27.3.
Wide Right: Mississippi State 35 - Texas A&M 28
The Aggies lost their first game of the season as the Bulldogs stunned A&M. Both Nick Fitzgerald and Aeris Williams tallied over 100 rushing yards and at least one TD on the ground. We predicted Texas A&M to win 62.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.3-25.5.
Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 11 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups (+1)
No. 25 Baylor at No. 9 Oklahoma
Every Top 25 team is playing this week, but only one game involves two ranked teams. The Sooners could have given up after losing two of their first three games, but they didn't. Instead, they chose to wipe the slate clean as they entered conference play. Now, the Sooners are winners of six straight games and currently lead the Big 12. Last week, without Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, Baker Mayfield put the team on his shoulders. He threw for 328 yards and four TDs. Mayfield has thrown at least four touchdowns in four consecutive games. Baylor has the difficult task of shaking off back-to-back losses to Texas and TCU. The Bears' season isn't over yet, though. They sit fourth in the Big 12, but still have games against two teams ahead of them in the standings: Oklahoma and West Virginia. Baylor already owns a win over Oklahoma State, currently ranked second in the conference. It is still possible for the Bears to win the Big 12 title. However, one more loss will dash all hopes. When our computer simulated the matchup, OU won 57.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.5-27.7.
USC at No. 4 Washington
We're deviating from the normal "two ranked teams" format on this one. The Washington Huskies remain unbeaten and host USC on Saturday night on FOX. With Texas A&M's loss last Saturday, Washington is now one of four undefeated teams left from the Power 5 conferences. This week, the Trojans are on the docket. USC is led by freshman quarterback Sam Dardold and sophomore running back Ronald Jones II. Last week, Jones ran for 171 yards and four TDs against Oregon. He's tallied at least 170 rushing yards in back-to-back games. With Jones carrying the rock last Saturday, Dardold wasn't needed. However, in the two previous matchups, he produced five TD passes apiece. Washington also has a young QB/RB tandem. Sophomores Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin make this Huskies offense move. Gaskin has tallied a rushing touchdown in five straight games. As for Browning, he threw six TD passes last week. He's accomplished that twice in the past four contests. The simulations believe the Huskies will keep a zero in the loss column. Washington wins 55.0 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.5-26.2.
Week 11 Upset Pick
West Virginia (+2) over Texas
The Mountaineers have only faltered once this season, yet Vegas has them losing to four-loss Texas this week. West Virginia is led by Skyler Howard. The senior quarterback, who's from Texas, has gotten it done on the ground as well as through the air. Howard has registered five rushing touchdowns in the past four games. In WVU's only loss of the season, Howard threw two interceptions. In games where he keeps it to one or none, the Mountaineers win. This season, the Longhorns have only picked off opposing quarterbacks five times. WVU wins 53.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.8-25.5.
College Football Week 11 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 29.7 | 22.2 | Box Score |
| @ Clemson Tigers | 70.3 | 28.8 | |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 33.7 | 23.2 | Box Score |
| @ Louisville Cardinals | 66.3 | 29.9 | |
| Boston College Eagles | 36.6 | 22.3 | Box Score |
| @ Florida State Seminoles | 63.4 | 26.0 | |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 38.1 | 24.4 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Tech Hokies | 61.9 | 28.4 | |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack | 52.5 | 25.4 | Box Score |
| @ Syracuse Orange | 47.5 | 24.0 | |
| Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 58.4 | 30.2 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Cavaliers | 41.6 | 27.8 | |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 61.4 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ Duke Blue Devils | 38.6 | 24.9 | |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 26.7 | 22.0 | Box Score |
| @ Wisconsin Badgers | 73.3 | 30.7 | |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 38.1 | 25.1 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan State Spartans | 61.9 | 28.3 | |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 47.5 | 25.3 | Box Score |
| @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | 52.5 | 27.1 | |
| Michigan Wolverines | 57.4 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa Hawkeyes | 42.6 | 24.2 | |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 57.4 | 28.9 | Box Score |
| @ Indiana Hoosiers | 42.6 | 26.7 | |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 61.4 | 28.7 | Box Score |
| @ Purdue Boilermakers | 38.6 | 23.7 | |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 64.9 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Maryland Terrapins | 35.1 | 24.3 | |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles | 41.6 | 32.7 | Box Score |
| @ Ball State Cardinals | 58.4 | 34.9 | |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 41.6 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ Akron Zips | 58.4 | 30.9 | |
| Toledo Rockets | 54.5 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Northern Illinois Huskies | 45.5 | 28.0 | |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks | 57.4 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Buffalo Bulls | 42.6 | 27.5 | |
| Western Michigan Broncos | 76.2 | 33.6 | Box Score |
| @ Kent State Golden Flashes | 23.8 | 24.3 | |
| Oregon State Beavers | 35.6 | 26.5 | Box Score |
| @ UCLA Bruins | 64.4 | 29.5 | |
| USC Trojans | 45.0 | 26.2 | Box Score |
| @ Washington Huskies | 55.0 | 29.5 | |
| California Golden Bears | 46.9 | 33.7 | Box Score |
| @ Washington State Cougars | 53.1 | 35.2 | |
| Stanford Cardinal | 50.5 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon Ducks | 49.5 | 29.1 | |
| Utah Utes | 59.1 | 28.2 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona State Sun Devils | 40.9 | 26.5 | |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 59.3 | 31.7 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona Wildcats | 40.7 | 28.7 | |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 32.7 | 23.1 | Box Score |
| @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 67.3 | 30.0 | |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 39.6 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ Tennessee Volunteers | 60.4 | 29.1 | |
| Ole Miss Rebels | 42.9 | 27.6 | Box Score |
| @ Texas A&M Aggies | 57.1 | 29.9 | |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | 49.5 | 23.6 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Gators | 50.5 | 24.3 | |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 53.5 | 23.1 | Box Score |
| @ Missouri Tigers | 46.5 | 21.9 | |
| Auburn Tigers | 53.7 | 27.2 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Bulldogs | 46.3 | 25.9 | |
| LSU Tigers | 58.0 | 26.5 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas Razorbacks | 42.0 | 24.7 | |
| Southern Utah Thunderbirds | 5.0 | 6.2 | Box Score |
| @ BYU Cougars | 95.0 | 47.7 | |
| Army West Point Black Knights | 22.8 | 22.4 | Box Score |
| @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 77.2 | 31.0 | |
| Baylor Bears | 42.7 | 27.7 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma Sooners | 57.3 | 29.5 | |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48.6 | 31.8 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | 51.4 | 32.6 | |
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 53.5 | 26.8 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Longhorns | 46.5 | 25.5 | |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 61.4 | 26.8 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas Jayhawks | 38.6 | 22.4 | |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 32.7 | 26.6 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 67.3 | 33.0 | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 39.9 | 29.1 | Box Score |
| @ Old Dominion Monarchs | 60.1 | 31.9 | |
| Rice Owls | 42.6 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ Charlotte 49ers | 57.4 | 30.4 | |
| North Texas Mean Green | 44.6 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 55.4 | 31.9 | |
| UTEP Miners | 54.5 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Atlantic Owls | 45.5 | 29.0 | |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 62.4 | 31.9 | Box Score |
| @ Marshall Thundering Herd | 37.6 | 28.4 | |
| Colorado State Rams | 47.5 | 26.2 | Box Score |
| @ Air Force Falcons | 52.5 | 28.2 | |
| New Mexico Lobos | 52.3 | 30.3 | Box Score |
| @ Utah State Aggies | 47.7 | 29.2 | |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 69.3 | 30.8 | Box Score |
| @ UNLV Rebels | 30.7 | 25.0 | |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 69.3 | 33.2 | Box Score |
| @ Nevada Wolf Pack | 30.7 | 25.5 | |
| Boise State Broncos | 70.3 | 33.7 | Box Score |
| @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 29.7 | 26.5 | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 43.6 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Southern Eagles | 56.4 | 31.2 | |
| Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 44.6 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia State Panthers | 55.4 | 31.5 | |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 45.5 | 29.7 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | 54.5 | 30.5 | |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers | 45.6 | 29.8 | Box Score |
| @ Troy Trojans | 54.4 | 31.4 | |
| Idaho Vandals | 53.5 | 33.1 | Box Score |
| @ Texas State Bobcats | 46.5 | 31.6 | |
| Tulane Green Wave | 26.7 | 22.4 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Cougars | 73.3 | 29.0 | |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 43.6 | 29.3 | Box Score |
| @ Navy Midshipmen | 56.4 | 30.6 | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 49.0 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ UCF Knights | 51.0 | 28.5 | |
| SMU Mustangs | 49.5 | 26.0 | Box Score |
| @ East Carolina Pirates | 50.5 | 28.9 | |
| South Florida Bulls | 59.9 | 31.7 | Box Score |
| @ Memphis Tigers | 40.1 | 28.4 |
In addition, view our Week 11 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
