WhatIfSports college football Week 12 predictions: Buckeyes will defeat Spartans
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 11 in Review
They are called "upsets," but it is making fans of our simulations happy. Last week, the WhatIfSports.com simulation engine went 4-1 when choosing the underdog. Also, the computer is winning 81.4 percent of predictions (562-128) and 82.3 percent of matchups between teams in the AP Top 25.
Week 11 Highlight: Virginia Tech 23 - Georgia Tech 21
The Hokies were the underdog, but not according to our simulations. We pegged Virginia Tech as the winner and it came true. VT won the Battle of the Techs and helped us win our third-straight Upset Pick.
Week 11 Lowlight: Oklahoma 44 - Baylor 34
Seth Russell has been missed. Baylor was rolling and the computers continued to predict their success. Now, it seems as though that page has turned (spoiler alert to the matchup below). The sims had the Bears winning 67.8 percent of the time.
Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 77.6 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 12 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Ohio State
The gauntlet portion of the schedule is upon the defending National Champions. This is, potentially, the first of five games against a tough group of opponents. First, the Spartans are on the docket. Michigan State would be undefeated if it wasn't for an unbelievable finish against Nebraska. Mark Dantonio's boys have made their road games very interesting. All three Big Ten away games for Michigan State have been decided by a score in the final minute. The Buckeyes haven't had a close game for weeks, winning by at least 14 points in five straight games. Quarterback J.T. Barrett returned to the starting role last week and threw for 150 yards while rushing for 74 yards. Fear not, Buckeye nation, the simulations suggest that Ohio State will win 56.4 percent of the results by an average score of 29.3-27.0.
No. 20 Northwestern vs. No. 21 Wisconsin
Other than losing to two teams in the Top Ten (Alabama and Iowa), Wisconsin has been unflappable. The Badgers had a bye week to prepare for their final two games in the conference. The Wildcats also have two losses in 2015. They stumbled against Michigan and Iowa in back-to-back games in October, but have won three consecutive games since. Northwestern needed a fourth quarter touchdown by Justin Jackson to eke by Purdue last week. In that game, Jackson rushed for 116 yards on 24 carries (4.8 yards per attempt). Wisconsin has a dangerous running back of their own, when healthy. Junior Corey Clement compiled 115 rushing yards on 11 attempts and scored three times in Week 9 against Rutgers. However, it was only the second game he's played all season. If Clement sits, Dare Ogunbowale will continue to take his place. Ogunbowale has scored seven touchdowns this season, including three in the past two games. Vegas believes the Badgers will win by 10.5, but the simulations suggest they will only win by an average score of 26.7-24.7 and will be victorious 54.6 percent of the time.
No. 22 USC vs. No. 23 Oregon
Is it just me, or is it weird not seeing either of these two schools at the top of the rankings? Both the Trojans and Ducks have three losses on their record, but they both have decent winning streaks built up. Oregon has won four straight games, including a two-point win as the underdog at Stanford last week. USC has also won four consecutive games, but struggled last week in a 27-24 win in Colorado. Both teams also have a win over their region leaders and could possibly leapfrog them in the coming weeks. The computer predicts that the Ducks win 51.1 percent of the sims with an average score of 31.2-30.0.
No. 17 LSU vs. No. 25 Ole Miss
Two weeks ago, the Tigers were undefeated and on top of the college football world. Since then, LSU has lost in back-to-back contests to Alabama and Arkansas. Now, the Tigers have relinquished their lead in the SEC and are in danger of missing out on a big bowl game. They need to right the ship as soon as possible. Ole Miss also stumbled to Arkansas in its last game. For the Rebels, Chad Kelly leads the offense. Naturally, he has the most passing yards on the team (3,224 yards), but he also leads Ole Miss with seven rushing touchdowns. Speaking of rushers, Leonard Fournette still leads the nation with 1,474 rushing yards, even after his two worst performances in the past two weeks. Unfortunately for the Mad Hatter, Les Miles' boys will drop their third-straight in 52.5 percent of the projections by an average 28.5-28.1 final score.
No. 10 Baylor vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
If the Big 12 was angry about last year's snub from the College Football Playoff, they might be doomed to another year of disappointment. Looking at the Big 12 standings, Oklahoma State is in first place and undefeated, yet they are ranked eighth according to the selection committee. The highest-ranked Big 12 team, Baylor, is currently sitting in fourth place in its conference. I don't get it either. The good news is that the Cowboys should be a lock for the playoff if they win out. The bad news is that they need to win out. Baylor lost its first game last week against the Sooners. With Jarrett Stidham as the Bears QB, Baylor has yet to score more than 34 points. The two-QB system of Mason Rudolph and J.W. Walsh at Oklahoma State has produced at least 35 points in five of the past six games. After the numbers were crunched, the Cowboys won a whopping 62.4 percent of the sims in a 30.0-26.5 average outcome.
No. 11 TCU vs. No. 7 Oklahoma
Both of these teams still have a shot at winning the Big 12 and potentially making the College Football Playoff. The Horned Frogs almost had a catastrophic loss to Kansas last week. The 46.5-point favorites only won by six points. Heisman hopeful, Trevone Boykin, was 5-8 with 54 passing yards and had to exit the game early with an ankle injury. Understandably so, the TCU offense was not the same without him. However, Boykin is expected to play in this contest. As for Oklahoma, it continues to dominate. Since their embarrassing loss to Texas, the Sooners have won five straight games and have scored at least 44 points in each endeavor. Sophomore running back, Samaje Perine, struggled at the beginning of the season, but has rushed for at least 90 yards and a TD in four consecutive games. TCU is allowing 158.2 rushing yards per game. According to the results, the home Sooners win 51.3 percent of the matchups by an average score of 29.0-28.2.
Week 12 Upset Pick
Duke (+2.5) over Virginia
Last week, the Blue Devils were without Thomas Sirk against Pittsburgh and they lost their third straight game. The Cavaliers have lost three of the past four games. Even though Duke has the better record, Vegas gives Virginia the nudge as the favorite for Week 12. Sirk is the team's leading passer and rusher. If he is back for the Blue Devils, our computer simulations suggest Duke wins straight-up 62.4 percent of the time by an average score of 28.9-24.0.
College Football Week 12 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Chattanooga Mocs | 5.0 | 7.6 | Box Score |
| @ Florida State Seminoles | 95.0 | 52.1 | |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 16.3 | 19.4 | Box Score |
| @ Clemson Tigers | 83.7 | 32.2 | |
| Syracuse Orange | 37.6 | 23.7 | Box Score |
| @ North Carolina State Wolfpack | 62.4 | 28.9 | |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 41.6 | 27.1 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 58.4 | 28.8 | |
| Louisville Cardinals | 48.5 | 27.4 | Box Score |
| @ Pittsburgh Panthers | 51.5 | 27.8 | |
| Duke Blue Devils | 62.4 | 28.9 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Cavaliers | 37.6 | 24.0 | |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 70.3 | 32.1 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Tech Hokies | 29.7 | 25.6 | |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 71.3 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ Boston College Eagles | 28.7 | 20.1 | |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 29.7 | 22.9 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa Hawkeyes | 70.3 | 30.1 | |
| Michigan State Spartans | 43.6 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio State Buckeyes | 56.4 | 29.3 | |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 45.4 | 23.3 | Box Score |
| @ Wisconsin Badgers | 54.6 | 24.7 | |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 47.0 | 26.7 | Box Score |
| @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | 53.0 | 27.8 | |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 53.5 | 27.4 | Box Score |
| @ Maryland Terrapins | 46.5 | 27.2 | |
| Michigan Wolverines | 57.4 | 25.4 | Box Score |
| @ Penn State Nittany Lions | 42.6 | 24.3 | |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks | 41.1 | 30.8 | Box Score |
| @ Massachusetts Minutemen | 58.9 | 31.9 | |
| Buffalo Bulls | 42.6 | 31.7 | Box Score |
| @ Akron Zips | 57.4 | 33.3 | |
| Toledo Rockets | 45.5 | 33.0 | Box Score |
| @ Bowling Green Falcons | 54.5 | 33.2 | |
| Western Michigan Broncos | 49.9 | 29.1 | Box Score |
| @ Northern Illinois Huskies | 50.1 | 29.7 | |
| Ball State Cardinals | 50.5 | 29.4 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio Bobcats | 49.5 | 28.8 | |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 63.4 | 30.6 | Box Score |
| @ Kent State Golden Flashes | 36.6 | 26.0 | |
| California Golden Bears | 36.6 | 28.7 | Box Score |
| @ Stanford Cardinal | 63.4 | 32.0 | |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 38.6 | 33.2 | Box Score |
| @ Washington State Cougars | 61.4 | 36.2 | |
| Arizona Wildcats | 39.6 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona State Sun Devils | 60.4 | 31.1 | |
| UCLA Bruins | 48.9 | 27.6 | Box Score |
| @ Utah Utes | 51.1 | 28.5 | |
| USC Trojans | 48.9 | 30.0 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon Ducks | 51.1 | 31.2 | |
| Washington Huskies | 60.4 | 29.6 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon State Beavers | 39.6 | 26.1 | |
| Citadel Bulldogs | 5.0 | 6.4 | Box Score |
| @ South Carolina Gamecocks | 95.0 | 46.5 | |
| Charleston Southern Buccaneers | 5.0 | 7.3 | Box Score |
| @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 95.0 | 51.7 | |
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 17.8 | 20.9 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Gators | 82.2 | 33.3 | |
| Charlotte 49ers | 17.8 | 25.7 | Box Score |
| @ Kentucky Wildcats | 82.2 | 35.8 | |
| Idaho Vandals | 29.7 | 24.8 | Box Score |
| @ Auburn Tigers | 70.3 | 33.9 | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 33.2 | 24.5 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Bulldogs | 66.8 | 29.8 | |
| LSU Tigers | 47.5 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ Ole Miss Rebels | 52.5 | 28.5 | |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 48.5 | 28.2 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas Razorbacks | 51.5 | 28.5 | |
| Tennessee Volunteers | 53.5 | 26.4 | Box Score |
| @ Missouri Tigers | 46.5 | 24.2 | |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 68.3 | 30.0 | Box Score |
| @ Vanderbilt Commodores | 31.7 | 25.0 | |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 32.7 | 26.3 | Box Score |
| @ BYU Cougars | 67.3 | 32.3 | |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 70.3 | 31.1 | Box Score |
| @ Army West Point Black Knights | 29.7 | 24.9 | |
| Baylor Bears | 37.6 | 26.5 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | 62.4 | 30.0 | |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 41.6 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas State Wildcats | 58.4 | 31.5 | |
| TCU Horned Frogs | 48.7 | 28.2 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma Sooners | 51.3 | 29.0 | |
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 67.3 | 30.7 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas Jayhawks | 32.7 | 24.1 | |
| North Texas Mean Green | 34.7 | 24.4 | Box Score |
| @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 65.3 | 29.4 | |
| Old Dominion Monarchs | 43.6 | 32.5 | Box Score |
| @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 56.4 | 34.2 | |
| Rice Owls | 58.4 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ UTSA Roadrunners | 41.6 | 24.4 | |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 58.4 | 31.9 | Box Score |
| @ FIU Golden Panthers | 41.6 | 29.7 | |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 60.4 | 29.4 | Box Score |
| @ UTEP Miners | 39.6 | 24.8 | |
| Air Force Falcons | 34.7 | 27.3 | Box Score |
| @ Boise State Broncos | 65.3 | 30.5 | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 49.5 | 27.1 | Box Score |
| @ Utah State Aggies | 50.5 | 28.7 | |
| Colorado State Rams | 53.1 | 31.2 | Box Score |
| @ New Mexico Lobos | 46.9 | 29.6 | |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 56.4 | 28.5 | Box Score |
| @ UNLV Rebels | 43.6 | 26.8 | |
| San Jose State Spartans | 65.3 | 31.7 | Box Score |
| @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 34.7 | 27.0 | |
| Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 45.5 | 29.9 | Box Score |
| @ Texas State Bobcats | 54.5 | 30.0 | |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 47.5 | 28.9 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 52.5 | 30.3 | |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 60.4 | 31.6 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia State Panthers | 39.6 | 28.6 | |
| Memphis Tigers | 52.5 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Temple Owls | 47.5 | 27.8 | |
| Navy Midshipmen | 56.4 | 32.3 | Box Score |
| @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 43.6 | 29.5 | |
| Tulane Green Wave | 57.4 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ SMU Mustangs | 42.6 | 24.8 | |
| Houston Cougars | 58.4 | 29.6 | Box Score |
| @ Connecticut Huskies | 41.6 | 28.1 | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 59.4 | 34.4 | Box Score |
| @ South Florida Bulls | 40.6 | 30.3 | |
| East Carolina Pirates | 68.3 | 31.5 | Box Score |
| @ UCF Knights | 31.7 | 25.2 |
In addition, view our Week 12 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
