LSU Tigers

WhatIfSports college football Week 12 predictions: Oklahoma picks up win over Mountaineers

Published Dec. 24, 2016 7:47 p.m. ET

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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 11 in Review

Game of the Week may as well be called Lock of the Week. Our simulating computer is now 9-1 after Ohio State won the GotW. Even our struggling It was a good news/bad news week for our computer simulations. While we lost our Game of the Week (USC/Washington), we were successful in the Upset of the Week (WVU/Texas). We are still 9-2 in our marquee game and an acceptable .500 (5-5) in the upsets.

Nailed It: Iowa State 31 - Kansas 24

Matt Campbell received his first Big 12 win last week. Freshman running back David Montgomery rushed for 169 yards in the win. We predicted Iowa State to win 61.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.8-22.4.

Wide Right: Pitt 43 - Clemson 42

Not many thought the Panthers could give the Tigers their first loss of the season. Nathan Peterman threw five TDs for Pittsburgh and Chris Blewitt connected on a 48-yard game-winning field goal. We predicted Clemson to win 70.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.8-22.2.

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

Week 12 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups

No. 20 Washington State at No. 12 Colorado

If the season ended today, this would be the matchup for the Pac-12 Championship. The Cougars are undefeated in conference play (7-0) and the Buffs have a half-game lead over USC. After starting the season 0-2, WSU has won eight straight games. However, if the Cougars want to win a ninth game, they'll have to do it without senior wide receiver River Cracraft. He tore is ACL in last week's win over Cal. Cracraft was second on the team in receptions, yards and TDs. He tallied three TDs in his final game. That should mean more looks to Gabe Marks. The senior WR has scored six TDs in the past four games and has notched at least one TD in nine of ten games this year. It will be a tough task to produce against this Colorado defense. The Buffalos have allowed 17.9 points per game (ninth-best in FBS) and only 176.3 passing yards per game (10th-best). The Cougs pass for 385.5 yards per contest. Something has to give. Colorado wins this simulation 52.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 31.1-30.9.

No. 21 Florida at No. 16 LSU

In October, Hurricane Matthew forced this game to be pushed back and now we are in store for an exciting final two weeks of the regular season. Much like the Colorado pass defense against WSU's air attack, the Tigers of LSU will look to do their damage on the ground against one of the best run defenses in football. The Gators allow only 111.4 rushing yards per game. Leonard Fournette averages 133.8 yards per game and his backup, Derrius Guice, has an impressive 97.9 rushing yards per contest. Florida is looking to secure a slot in the SEC championship game, but Tennessee is lurking. The ground-and-pound of LSU will be too much for Florida as LSU wins 50.8 percent of the time, by an average score of 24.6-24.5.

No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 10 West Virginia

We don't have a Big 12 championship game yet, but the ending to the 2016 season might inadvertently create one this year. Oklahoma currently leads the conference with a 7-0 record. West Virginia is one game back, along with Oklahoma State. The Sooners' final two games are against the Mountaineers and Cowboys. A win in both games would lock up the Big 12. If WVU wins this game, some chaos could ensue. Oklahoma State already defeated the Mountaineers earlier this season. As for this week's game, the Sooners will have their full complement of running backs, again. Last week, both Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon ran for over 100 yards and each scored at least one TD. West Virginia will continue to rely on quarterback Skyler Howard. He struggled last week against Texas (three interceptions), but the Sooners allow 297.1 passing yards per game (eighth-most in FBS). Prepare for an exciting conclusion to the regular season in the Big 12 as OU wins our simulations 51.1 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.4-26.0.

Week 12 Upset Pick

Virginia (+1) over Notre Dame

The Hokies might've fallen from the Top 25 in the AP poll after losing to Georgia Tech, 30-20, last week, but VT still has the firepower on offense to right the ship. The 7-3 Hokies are fighting for a berth in the ACC Championship game. Dual-threat quarterback Jerod Evans will be the deciding factor in this contest. He leads the team in rushing with 608 yards on 132 carries (4.6 yards per carry). He'll also look to Isaiah Ford and Bucky Hodges in the passing game against a defense that allows 188.5 passing yards per game. VT wins 51.9 percent of the time, by an average score of 27.5-27.0.

College Football Week 12 Predictions
Matchup	Win %	Avg. Score
Citadel Bulldogs	5.0	6.0	Box Score
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	95.0	48.4
Connecticut Huskies	38.6	24.1	Box Score
@ Boston College Eagles	61.4	25.3
Virginia Cavaliers	44.6	26.2	Box Score
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	55.4	28.9
Duke Blue Devils	47.5	26.2	Box Score
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	52.5	27.8
Clemson Tigers	54.5	27.3	Box Score
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	45.5	23.9
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	61.4	28.0	Box Score
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	38.6	24.8
Florida State Seminoles	68.3	28.0	Box Score
@ Syracuse Orange	31.7	22.6
Indiana Hoosiers	40.6	27.7	Box Score
@ Michigan Wolverines	59.4	30.9
Maryland Terrapins	48.3	28.6	Box Score
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	51.7	28.8
Iowa Hawkeyes	60.9	29.0	Box Score
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	39.1	23.6
Northwestern Wildcats	62.4	25.4	Box Score
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	37.6	22.4
Penn State Nittany Lions	63.4	27.8	Box Score
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	36.6	23.9
Ohio State Buckeyes	67.3	28.1	Box Score
@ Michigan State Spartans	32.7	24.5
Wisconsin Badgers	77.2	29.3	Box Score
@ Purdue Boilermakers	22.8	21.9
Buffalo Bulls	26.7	25.8	Box Score
@ Western Michigan Broncos	73.3	34.0
Ball State Cardinals	38.6	29.7	Box Score
@ Toledo Rockets	61.4	33.5
Kent State Golden Flashes	44.5	28.0	Box Score
@ Bowling Green Falcons	55.5	29.7
Northern Illinois Huskies	51.5	31.6	Box Score
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	48.5	31.0
Ohio Bobcats	52.5	30.8	Box Score
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	47.5	29.8
Oregon Ducks	40.6	25.0	Box Score
@ Utah Utes	59.4	28.4
Arizona State Sun Devils	41.6	27.9	Box Score
@ Washington Huskies	58.4	29.8
Arizona Wildcats	45.8	27.5	Box Score
@ Oregon State Beavers	54.2	28.7
Washington State Cougars	47.6	30.9	Box Score
@ Colorado Buffaloes	52.4	31.1
Stanford Cardinal	52.3	31.7	Box Score
@ California Golden Bears	47.7	30.7
USC Trojans	56.4	31.2	Box Score
@ UCLA Bruins	43.6	28.9
Austin Peay Governors	5.0	6.6	Box Score
@ Kentucky Wildcats	95.0	47.9
Chattanooga Mocs	5.0	8.0	Box Score
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	95.0	51.7
Alabama A&M Bulldogs	5.0	8.4	Box Score
@ Auburn Tigers	95.0	48.5
Western Carolina Catamounts	5.0	7.6	Box Score
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	95.0	46.9
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	29.7	25.4	Box Score
@ Georgia Bulldogs	70.3	31.6
Missouri Tigers	32.7	21.0	Box Score
@ Tennessee Volunteers	67.3	27.2
UTSA Roadrunners	32.7	24.7	Box Score
@ Texas A&M Aggies	67.3	30.9
Florida Gators	49.2	24.5	Box Score
@ LSU Tigers	50.8	24.6
Arkansas Razorbacks	59.4	27.3	Box Score
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	40.6	26.0
Ole Miss Rebels	61.4	28.4	Box Score
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	38.6	24.2
Morgan State Bears	5.0	8.4	Box Score
@ Army West Point Black Knights	95.0	45.3
Massachusetts Minutemen	21.8	23.9	Box Score
@ BYU Cougars	78.2	34.1
Virginia Tech Hokies	51.9	27.5	Box Score
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	48.1	27.0
Oklahoma State Cowboys	47.5	29.0	Box Score
@ TCU Horned Frogs	52.5	29.6
Oklahoma Sooners	51.1	26.4	Box Score
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	48.9	26.0
Kansas State Wildcats	57.4	28.2	Box Score
@ Baylor Bears	42.6	27.0
Texas Tech Red Raiders	66.3	33.9	Box Score
@ Iowa State Cyclones	33.7	27.7
Texas Longhorns	73.3	29.5	Box Score
@ Kansas Jayhawks	26.7	19.9
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	44.6	28.3	Box Score
@ North Texas Mean Green	55.4	31.2
Old Dominion Monarchs	52.6	28.7	Box Score
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	47.4	28.3
Marshall Thundering Herd	56.1	31.0	Box Score
@ FIU Golden Panthers	43.9	29.3
UTEP Miners	59.4	32.3	Box Score
@ Rice Owls	40.6	29.2
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	64.9	29.5	Box Score
@ Charlotte 49ers	35.1	27.0
UNLV Rebels	20.8	25.2	Box Score
@ Boise State Broncos	79.2	34.1
New Mexico Lobos	53.5	27.7	Box Score
@ Colorado State Rams	46.5	25.7
San Diego State Aztecs	53.5	29.7	Box Score
@ Wyoming Cowboys	46.5	28.6
Utah State Aggies	55.2	30.7	Box Score
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	44.8	29.5
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	58.4	29.2	Box Score
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	41.6	28.4
Air Force Falcons	60.4	29.5	Box Score
@ San Jose State Spartans	39.6	26.6
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	30.7	26.8	Box Score
@ Appalachian State Mountaineers	69.3	33.1
Arkansas State Red Wolves	42.6	25.9	Box Score
@ Troy Trojans	57.4	30.2
Texas State Bobcats	47.5	32.4	Box Score
@ New Mexico State Aggies	52.5	33.3
Georgia Southern Eagles	56.4	31.6	Box Score
@ Georgia State Panthers	43.6	29.7
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	52.0	30.6	Box Score
@ UCF Knights	48.0	29.3
South Florida Bulls	56.4	29.2	Box Score
@ SMU Mustangs	43.6	26.5
Memphis Tigers	57.0	30.0	Box Score
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	43.0	27.8
Louisville Cardinals	57.4	27.6	Box Score
@ Houston Cougars	42.6	24.4
Navy Midshipmen	61.5	31.0	Box Score
@ East Carolina Pirates	38.5	27.2
Temple Owls	71.8	31.8	Box Score
@ Tulane Green Wave	28.2	23.8