WhatIfSports college football Week 2 predictions: Tennessee improves to 2-0
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 1 in Review
After a long offseason, our college football simulation engine shook off the cobwebs and accurately predicted 72 of 87 Week 1 games. The successes included a couple of upset picks, with Toledo (+3) taking down Arkansas State 31-10 and BYU (+1) knocking off Arizona 18-16.
Nailed It: Minnesota 30 - Oregon State 23
Oddsmakers envisioned Minnesota to handle Oregon State, installing the Gophers as 13-point favorites. We predicted a closer game, however, picking Minnesota to win 56.4 percent of the time and outscoring the Beavers by an average margin of of 26.8-25.6. Two fourth-quarter touchdowns by Gophers erased a 23-17 deficit as the team won 30-23.
Wide Right: South Alabama 21 - Mississippi State 20
When an SEC school plays a member of the Sun Belt, it's usually a safe assumption that the SEC team will triumph. We placed Mississippi State's odds to beat South Alabama at 74.3 percent. At the half, the Bulldogs led 17-0. Heading into the fourth quarter, the score was 20-7. But two fourth-quarter touchdowns by South Alabama, the second with 57 seconds remaining, delivered the Jaguars a huge 21-20 upset.
Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 2 Games to Watch
Arkansas at No. 13 TCU
Hunting for Top 25 matchups was a struggle this week, so we went with some solid games that may not have high-ranking aspirations. This battle between the Big 12 and SEC made the cut. Both of these teams were victorious last week, but allowed way too many points against weaker opponents. The Horned Frogs were locked up with South Dakota State until the third quarter before earning the 59-41 win. Arkansas needed a fourth-quarter comeback in order to defeat Louisiana Tech by a score of 21-20. Our simulation engines don't believe the Razorbacks can make another come-from-behind win. TCU wins 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 26.9-25.6.
BYU at Utah
The Holy War has gone the way of Utah in the past five matchups, including twice last year (2015 Las Vegas Bowl). The Utes own the series overall record, too (58-34-4). Transfer quarterback Troy Williams won his first start for the Utes last week (24-0 over Southern Utah). Kalani Sitake won in his debut, as well. The new BYU head coach made the right move starting Taysom Hill at QB and earned the close 18-16 win over Arizona. One team will receive its first loss of the season and our computers say it will be the Cougars. Utah wins 56.4 percent of the simulations by an average score of 27.2-24.3.
Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Tennessee
Gentlemen, start your engines! The Hokies and Volunteers square off at Bristol Motor Speedway in what is expected to be the largest crowd on-hand for a college football game (estimated attendance around 150,000). Tennessee might've had their sights on this game one week too soon. The Volunteers needed overtime to beat Appalachian State 20-13 at home. Virginia Tech won its opener thanks to new starting QB Jerod Evans (221 passing yards and four TDs). However, our computer simulations suggest the SEC will win this contest 59.4 percent of the time by an average score of 26.8-25.4, in favor of the Vols.
Week 3 Upset Pick
Penn State (+6) at Pittsburgh
Instate rivals Penn State and Pitt meet in Heinz Field (Pitt's home) on Saturday afternoon. Both won their first game of 2016 by at least 20 points. Both teams also rely heavily on their ground attack. The Nittany Lions have sophomore Saquon Barkley. He rushed for over 100 yards and a TD in Week 1. The Panthers have James Conner. He tallied 69 total yards and two TDs in his emotional return. Our computers give the edge to the Big 10 in this one 55.4 percent of the time by an average score of 26.2-24.8.
College Football Week 2 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Charleston Southern Buccaneers | 5.0 | 9.0 | Box Score |
| @ Florida State Seminoles | 95.0 | 52.6 | |
| Mercer Bears | 5.0 | 6.5 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 95.0 | 47.7 | |
| Troy Trojans | 19.3 | 22.9 | Box Score |
| @ Clemson Tigers | 80.7 | 32.8 | |
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 20.3 | 20.6 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 79.7 | 29.0 | |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 48.0 | 24.3 | Box Score |
| @ Duke Blue Devils | 52.0 | 25.8 | |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 55.4 | 26.2 | Box Score |
| @ Pittsburgh Panthers | 44.6 | 24.8 | |
| Louisville Cardinals | 68.3 | 29.4 | Box Score |
| @ Syracuse Orange | 31.7 | 22.4 | |
| Indiana State Sycamores | 5.0 | 6.8 | Box Score |
| @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | 95.0 | 43.6 | |
| Howard Bison | 5.0 | 7.6 | Box Score |
| @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 95.0 | 45.2 | |
| Illinois State Redbirds | 5.0 | 8.9 | Box Score |
| @ Northwestern Wildcats | 95.0 | 46.1 | |
| UCF Knights | 17.8 | 21.4 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan Wolverines | 82.2 | 33.2 | |
| Akron Zips | 23.8 | 21.3 | Box Score |
| @ Wisconsin Badgers | 76.2 | 29.0 | |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 23.3 | 21.2 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa Hawkeyes | 76.7 | 28.5 | |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 29.7 | 28.0 | Box Score |
| @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | 70.3 | 33.2 | |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 30.7 | 23.3 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio State Buckeyes | 69.3 | 31.4 | |
| Ball State Cardinals | 40.7 | 29.4 | Box Score |
| @ Indiana Hoosiers | 59.3 | 32.5 | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 62.4 | 31.8 | Box Score |
| @ Purdue Boilermakers | 37.6 | 27.0 | |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 66.8 | 30.2 | Box Score |
| @ Illinois Fighting Illini | 33.2 | 23.6 | |
| Maine Black Bears | 5.0 | 8.3 | Box Score |
| @ Toledo Rockets | 95.0 | 50.6 | |
| North Carolina Central Eagles | 5.0 | 7.6 | Box Score |
| @ Western Michigan Broncos | 95.0 | 51.6 | |
| North Carolina A&T Aggies | 5.0 | 7.2 | Box Score |
| @ Kent State Golden Flashes | 95.0 | 38.4 | |
| Eastern Illinois Panthers | 5.0 | 9.6 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (OH) RedHawks | 95.0 | 42.1 | |
| North Dakota Fighting Hawks | 5.0 | 7.5 | Box Score |
| @ Bowling Green Falcons | 95.0 | 45.6 | |
| Idaho State Bengals | 5.0 | 6.9 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado Buffaloes | 95.0 | 48.0 | |
| Grambling State Tigers | 5.0 | 6.6 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona Wildcats | 95.0 | 50.4 | |
| Idaho Vandals | 24.8 | 24.1 | Box Score |
| @ Washington Huskies | 75.2 | 34.3 | |
| UNLV Rebels | 33.7 | 25.4 | Box Score |
| @ UCLA Bruins | 66.3 | 32.4 | |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 37.6 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon Ducks | 62.4 | 32.3 | |
| BYU Cougars | 43.6 | 24.3 | Box Score |
| @ Utah Utes | 56.4 | 27.2 | |
| Utah State Aggies | 43.6 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ USC Trojans | 56.4 | 31.0 | |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 47.5 | 30.9 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona State Sun Devils | 52.5 | 31.2 | |
| Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 5.0 | 6.1 | Box Score |
| @ LSU Tigers | 95.0 | 49.4 | |
| Wofford Terriers | 5.0 | 6.2 | Box Score |
| @ Ole Miss Rebels | 95.0 | 50.4 | |
| Prairie View A&M Panthers | 5.0 | 7.0 | Box Score |
| @ Texas A&M Aggies | 95.0 | 48.1 | |
| Nicholls Colonels | 5.0 | 8.5 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Bulldogs | 95.0 | 47.8 | |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles | 25.2 | 23.6 | Box Score |
| @ Missouri Tigers | 74.8 | 30.2 | |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 30.7 | 26.7 | Box Score |
| @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 69.3 | 32.1 | |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 35.6 | 23.9 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Gators | 64.4 | 28.6 | |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 40.6 | 25.4 | Box Score |
| @ Tennessee Volunteers | 59.4 | 26.8 | |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 41.6 | 24.5 | Box Score |
| @ Auburn Tigers | 58.4 | 27.6 | |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | 41.6 | 26.7 | Box Score |
| @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | 58.4 | 29.9 | |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47.5 | 26.3 | Box Score |
| @ Vanderbilt Commodores | 52.5 | 26.7 | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 20.8 | 24.9 | Box Score |
| @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 79.2 | 34.1 | |
| Rice Owls | 47.8 | 27.9 | Box Score |
| @ Army West Point Black Knights | 52.2 | 28.6 | |
| Boston College Eagles | 62.9 | 26.0 | Box Score |
| @ Massachusetts Minutemen | 37.1 | 21.6 | |
| Youngstown State Penguins | 5.0 | 6.7 | Box Score |
| @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 95.0 | 45.4 | |
| Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 8.4 | 21.9 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma Sooners | 91.6 | 35.6 | |
| SMU Mustangs | 15.8 | 23.1 | Box Score |
| @ Baylor Bears | 84.2 | 35.8 | |
| UTEP Miners | 25.2 | 24.2 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Longhorns | 74.8 | 32.1 | |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 34.7 | 26.3 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | 65.3 | 31.8 | |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 47.5 | 25.7 | Box Score |
| @ TCU Horned Frogs | 52.5 | 26.9 | |
| Ohio Bobcats | 52.0 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas Jayhawks | 48.0 | 26.4 | |
| Savannah State Tigers | 5.0 | 8.0 | Box Score |
| @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 95.0 | 48.8 | |
| Bethune-Cookman Wildcats | 5.0 | 10.0 | Box Score |
| @ North Texas Mean Green | 95.0 | 40.5 | |
| South Carolina State Bulldogs | 5.0 | 7.9 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 95.0 | 47.3 | |
| Elon Phoenix | 5.0 | 8.1 | Box Score |
| @ Charlotte 49ers | 95.0 | 36.8 | |
| Morgan State Bears | 5.0 | 8.2 | Box Score |
| @ Marshall Thundering Herd | 95.0 | 47.3 | |
| Maryland Terrapins | 58.4 | 29.1 | Box Score |
| @ FIU Golden Panthers | 41.6 | 25.6 | |
| Portland State Vikings | 5.0 | 8.6 | Box Score |
| @ San Jose State Spartans | 95.0 | 43.0 | |
| Sacramento State Hornets | 5.0 | 7.9 | Box Score |
| @ Fresno State Bulldogs | 95.0 | 42.8 | |
| UT Martin Skyhawks | 5.0 | 9.3 | Box Score |
| @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 95.0 | 40.9 | |
| Georgia State Panthers | 27.7 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ Air Force Falcons | 72.3 | 32.7 | |
| California Golden Bears | 41.6 | 27.9 | Box Score |
| @ San Diego State Aztecs | 58.4 | 29.4 | |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 44.3 | 26.3 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado State Rams | 55.7 | 27.9 | |
| Washington State Cougars | 44.6 | 32.5 | Box Score |
| @ Boise State Broncos | 55.4 | 33.6 | |
| McNeese State Cowboys | 5.0 | 8.5 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 95.0 | 43.5 | |
| Old Dominion Monarchs | 26.7 | 27.6 | Box Score |
| @ Appalachian State Mountaineers | 73.3 | 35.2 | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 51.5 | 30.0 | Box Score |
| @ South Alabama Jaguars | 48.5 | 28.0 | |
| New Mexico Lobos | 68.3 | 33.4 | Box Score |
| @ New Mexico State Aggies | 31.7 | 27.9 | |
| Stony Brook Seawolves | 5.0 | 7.1 | Box Score |
| @ Temple Owls | 95.0 | 44.7 | |
| Lamar Cardinals | 5.0 | 9.2 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Cougars | 95.0 | 50.1 | |
| Southern University Jaguars | 5.0 | 7.8 | Box Score |
| @ Tulane Green Wave | 95.0 | 40.3 | |
| Connecticut Huskies | 43.6 | 26.3 | Box Score |
| @ Navy Midshipmen | 56.4 | 28.1 | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 43.1 | 26.1 | Box Score |
| @ South Florida Bulls | 56.9 | 28.6 | |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack | 54.5 | 27.9 | Box Score |
| @ East Carolina Pirates | 45.5 | 24.6 |
In addition, view our Week 2 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
