Notre Dame Fighting Irish

WhatIfSports college football Week 3 predictions: Georgia Tech wins at Notre Dame

Published Dec. 24, 2016 8:36 p.m. ET

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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 2 in Review

Our college football simulation engine built on a strong opening week (85.9 percent accuracy) with another good showing in Week 2. We predicted the winner in 84.2 percent of all games involving an FBS team (64-12 record). In games featuring a Top 25 team, the simulation engine boasted an accuracy of 92.0 percent (23-2 record). The only Top 25 games we missed were Toledo over Arkansas and BYU over Boise State.

Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 77.6 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

Week 2 Highlight: Our Oklahoma over Tennessee prediction was looking precarious, with the Volunteers taking a 17-3 lead into the fourth quarter. But the Sooners managed two touchdowns in the final stanza to send the game to OT, where they outscored Tennessee 14-7. Final score: Oklahoma 31 – Tennessee 24. The WhatIfSports prediction: Oklahoma 28.7 – Tennessee 24.0.

Week 2 Lowlight: Eastern Michigan ranked 128th in our Week 2 power rankings. Paying a visit to Wyoming, our simulation engine felt comfortable picking against EMU, with Wyoming winning 64.4 percent of games simulated between the two teams. Vegas oddsmakers agreed with the pick, taking the Cowboys by 13. Naturally, Eastern Michigan steamrolled Wyoming, leading 38-14 at the half en route to a 48-29 victory.  If the Eagles can defeat Ball State this week, they’ll match their win total from 2014.

Week 3 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups

No. 19 BYU @ No. 10 UCLA: BYU has overcome the loss of star quarterback Taysom Hill with back-to-back game-winning heaves from new starter Tanner Mangum. With victories over Nebraska and No. 20 Boise State, BYU’s ranking is well-deserved. But can the Cougars survive their toughest test yet? After 101 simulations, the computer gives the nod to UCLA, with the Bruins winning 55.6 percent of the time.

No. 15 Ole Miss @ No. 2 Alabama: Last year, Alabama’s only regular-season loss was a 23-17 defeat at Ole Miss. Now the Rebels are tasked with traveling to Tuscaloosa to make it two in a row over ‘Bama. We’re not predicting a pleasant outcome for Ole Miss, however, with the Crimson Tide winning by an average score of 28.2-23.5.

No. 14 Georgia Tech @ No. 8 Notre Dame: Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame is our featured Game of the Week. Check below for the full breakdown.

Week 3 Upset Picks

Colorado State (+3.5) over Colorado: The Buffaloes dropped their first game of the year to Hawaii and lost to in-state rival Colorado State in 2014. Yet the CSU Rams, coming off a 23-20 overtime defeat to Minnesota, are 3.5-point dogs in the matchup. We like Colorado State to pull the upset, with the Rams winning 57.4 percent of simulations.

Western Kentucky (+2.5) over Indiana: Western Kentucky is 2-0 with a two-point win at Vanderbilt and a three-point win over Louisiana Tech. Although Indiana may be a tougher opponent, we like the Hilltoppers to escape with another narrow win. Watch for a high-scoring affair in Bloomington.

Game of the Week: Georgia Tech at Notre Dame

This week's matchup between the Yellow Jackets and Fighting Irish was supposed to be a showdown of two athletic quarterbacks: Justin Thomas (GT) and Malik Zaire (ND).

However, Zaire broke his ankle and will miss the remainder of the 2015 season.

But, don't count Notre Dame out just yet. They will move from a Kettering, Ohio quarterback to a Toledo, OH player. DeShone Kizer took over for Zaire and the Irish offense didn't miss a beat. Kizer completed 8-of-12 passes for 92 yards including the 39-yard game-winning TD pass to Will Fuller.

Georgia Tech's offense has been impressive, too. The Yellow Jackets have scored the second-most points in FBS, thus far (134 points). They trail only Ole Miss by 15 points for the lead. Tech has an effective running attack. Freshman Marcus Marshall leads the team with 221 rushing yards on only 14 attempts (15.8 yards per carry).

While GT is producing points at an outstanding rate, they have yet to see the quality of opponent as ND. Tech's wins have been over Alcorn State and Tulane. Notre Dame has defeated Texas and Virginia.

Our computers simulated this game 101 times and are awarding Georgia Tech as the winner 55.4 percent of the time by an average score of 28.8-28.3.

The quarterback change had to influence this decision tremendously. If Notre Dame remains undefeated after Week 3, look for our simulations to lean more toward the luck of the Irish throughout 2015.

In addition, view our Week 3 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.

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