Ole Miss Rebels

WhatIfSports college football Week 3 predictions: Ohio State takes down Oklahoma

Published Dec. 24, 2016 8:28 p.m. ET

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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 2 in Review

While, on paper, the games seemed like potential blowouts, that wasn't necessarily the case. It was a breeding ground for upsets and for teams to look past their "cupcake" opponents. However, our predictions still spit out an accuracy of 88.0 percent and an amazing 91.3 percent in regards to teams in the Top 25 (21-2). We even correctly predicted the largest attended college football game in the Battle of Bristol as the Vols were projected to win.

Nailed It: Navy 28 - UConn 24

Along with the Game of the Week correct pick, we also provided Navy as the winner over UConn. Will Worth filled in for the injured Tago Smith and was solid as he rushed for 44 yards and two TDs. We predicted Navy to win 56.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.1-26.3

Wide Right: Pitt 42 - Penn State 39

The computer stumbled in its prediction between Penn State and Pitt. James Conner was just too much for the Nittany Lions' defense. He tallied 117 rushing yards and two total TDs. We took Penn State to win 55.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.2-24.8. However, if you took them +6, you got the win.

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

Week 3 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups

No. 3 Ohio State at No. 14 Oklahoma (Saturday, FOX, 7 p.m. ET)

This game could've had two Top 5 teams if it weren’t for those meddling Cougars. Houston's head coach, and former Buckeyes offensive coordinator, provided the Sooners with an early black eye and now Oklahoma needs to win-out. Last week, they corrected the ship against UL-Monroe. However, this Ohio State defense won't be as easy. New defensive coordinator, Greg Schiano, has put together a game plan which has allowed an average of three points per contest. According to our computers, the Buckeyes get the road win 53.8 percent of the time by an average score of 27.4-26.9.

No. 2 Florida State at No. 10 Louisville

Make sure all the light bulbs are fresh because this scoreboard is going to get a workout. We have two potential Heisman candidates in this matchup. The Cardinals' quarterback, Lamar Jackson, burst into the picture with two impressive games to start the season. He's accounted for 13 totals TDs, seven passing and six rushing. The Seminoles have Dalvin Cook. While he's only scored two touchdowns in two games, Cook is still averaging 5.1 yards per carry. When we ran the simulations, FSU remained unbeaten 60.4 percent of the time by an average score of 30.2-26.1.

No. 1 Alabama at No. 19 Ole Miss

2-0. That is Ole Miss' record against Alabama in the past two seasons. In those two wins, the Rebels had near-perfect games from their quarterback. In 2014, Bo Wallace was "Good Bo" as he threw three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Last year, Chad Kelly was "Rad Chad" as he also threw for three TDs and zero INTs. That wasn't the case for Bama's boys. Jake Coker and Cooper Bateman combined for three TDs and three interceptions last year. For this year's result, our simulations have Alabama avenging their past 51.5 percent of the time by an average score of 26.7-25.6.

No. 12 Michigan State at No. 18 Notre Dame

After a two-year hiatus, the Megaphone trophy is back on the table. Notre Dame has won the past three meetings and owns the overall record between these two (48-28-1). Home field plays a big role in this rivalry. The Spartans have won in ND only 13 times. The Irish have defended their home field 29 times. Michigan State hasn't won in South Bend since 2007. Mark Dantonio's team took last week off, so they will be well rested for this matchup. However, our projections say that won't be enough as Notre Dame wins 50.7 percent of the time by an average score of 27.6-27.3.

Week 3 Upset Pick

Oregon (+3) at Nebraska

In an unusual circumstance, the Ducks are ranked, yet they are the underdog according to Vegas. Well, our simulations don't agree with that. Oregon averages the eighth-most yards per game this season (577 YPG). Both teams are averaging around 48 points per game, too. However, while Nebraska crushed two teams from the Mountain West conference (Wyoming and Fresno State), the Ducks defeated the ACC's Virginia squad. When the dust settles, Oregon win 55.1 percent of the time by an average score of 31.5-29.9.

College Football Week 3 Predictions
Matchup	Win %	Avg. Score
South Carolina State Bulldogs	5.0	9.2	Box Score
@ Clemson Tigers	95.0	49.1
James Madison Dukes	5.0	7.6	Box Score
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	95.0	47.6
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens	5.0	6.7	Box Score
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	95.0	44.5
Boston College Eagles	33.7	20.0	Box Score
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	66.3	25.3
Old Dominion Monarchs	38.6	26.6	Box Score
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	61.4	30.0
Vanderbilt Commodores	39.1	23.2	Box Score
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	60.9	25.4
Florida State Seminoles	60.4	30.2	Box Score
@ Louisville Cardinals	39.6	26.1
South Florida Bulls	62.4	27.1	Box Score
@ Syracuse Orange	37.6	23.8
North Dakota State Bison	5.0	8.5	Box Score
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	95.0	48.5
Georgia State Panthers	22.8	22.4	Box Score
@ Wisconsin Badgers	77.2	31.7
Colorado Buffaloes	24.8	24.2	Box Score
@ Michigan Wolverines	75.2	31.0
Temple Owls	37.6	23.7	Box Score
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	62.4	28.8
Duke Blue Devils	43.6	22.3	Box Score
@ Northwestern Wildcats	56.4	23.5
New Mexico Lobos	46.5	27.9	Box Score
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	53.5	29.5
Oregon Ducks	55.1	31.5	Box Score
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	44.9	29.9
Western Michigan Broncos	57.4	32.6	Box Score
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	42.6	31.6
Eastern Kentucky Colonels	5.0	8.8	Box Score
@ Ball State Cardinals	95.0	44.9
Monmouth Hawks	5.0	7.8	Box Score
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	95.0	36.9
UNLV Rebels	30.7	26.2	Box Score
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	69.3	31.6
Fresno State Bulldogs	38.6	27.5	Box Score
@ Toledo Rockets	61.4	34.1
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	49.4	29.7	Box Score
@ Bowling Green Falcons	50.6	29.9
San Diego State Aztecs	62.9	28.9	Box Score
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	37.1	25.0
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	67.3	34.4	Box Score
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	32.7	28.5
Idaho State Bengals	5.0	7.5	Box Score
@ Oregon State Beavers	95.0	44.7
Portland State Vikings	5.0	8.8	Box Score
@ Washington Huskies	95.0	48.5
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	24.8	25.3	Box Score
@ Arizona Wildcats	75.2	34.3
Idaho Vandals	26.7	27.7	Box Score
@ Washington State Cougars	73.3	35.0
USC Trojans	44.6	29.2	Box Score
@ Stanford Cardinal	55.4	31.9
Texas Longhorns	51.5	29.2	Box Score
@ California Golden Bears	48.5	27.6
North Texas Mean Green	14.9	18.8	Box Score
@ Florida Gators	85.1	31.3
New Mexico State Aggies	29.7	27.2	Box Score
@ Kentucky Wildcats	70.3	33.7
Ohio Bobcats	29.7	24.5	Box Score
@ Tennessee Volunteers	70.3	30.7
Texas State Bobcats	30.7	26.2	Box Score
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	69.3	31.9
East Carolina Pirates	42.6	28.0	Box Score
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	57.4	29.8
Mississippi State Bulldogs	42.5	26.6	Box Score
@ LSU Tigers	57.5	29.5
Texas A&M Aggies	49.5	25.9	Box Score
@ Auburn Tigers	50.5	26.1
Alabama Crimson Tide	51.5	26.7	Box Score
@ Ole Miss Rebels	48.5	25.6
Georgia Bulldogs	64.4	25.2	Box Score
@ Missouri Tigers	35.6	20.3
Michigan State Spartans	49.3	27.3	Box Score
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	50.7	27.6
FIU Golden Panthers	57.4	30.6	Box Score
@ Massachusetts Minutemen	42.6	28.5
UCLA Bruins	57.6	28.6	Box Score
@ BYU Cougars	42.4	25.9
Iowa State Cyclones	32.7	25.5	Box Score
@ TCU Horned Frogs	67.3	30.5
Florida Atlantic Owls	39.1	23.3	Box Score
@ Kansas State Wildcats	60.9	27.0
Pittsburgh Panthers	42.6	26.8	Box Score
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	57.4	28.8
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	42.6	31.2	Box Score
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	57.4	34.2
Ohio State Buckeyes	53.8	27.4	Box Score
@ Oklahoma Sooners	46.2	26.9
Troy Trojans	39.6	28.4	Box Score
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	60.4	31.9
Akron Zips	42.0	25.3	Box Score
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	58.0	27.8
Army West Point Black Knights	50.3	29.2	Box Score
@ UTEP Miners	49.7	28.7
Eastern Michigan Eagles	64.4	29.9	Box Score
@ Charlotte 49ers	35.6	24.9
Arizona State Sun Devils	75.2	31.0	Box Score
@ UTSA Roadrunners	24.8	23.5
Baylor Bears	78.2	34.5	Box Score
@ Rice Owls	21.8	24.4
Northern Colorado Bears	5.0	8.2	Box Score
@ Colorado State Rams	95.0	45.1
UC Davis Aggies	5.0	9.3	Box Score
@ Wyoming Cowboys	95.0	41.6
Buffalo Bulls	44.6	28.5	Box Score
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	55.4	30.4
Arkansas State Red Wolves	47.5	28.5	Box Score
@ Utah State Aggies	52.5	28.6
Utah Utes	69.3	30.3	Box Score
@ San Jose State Spartans	30.7	24.0
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	25.7	25.1	Box Score
@ Georgia Southern Eagles	74.3	34.2
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	51.4	28.6	Box Score
@ Appalachian State Mountaineers	48.6	28.4
South Alabama Jaguars	55.1	30.3	Box Score
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	44.9	29.3
North Carolina A&T Aggies	5.0	8.9	Box Score
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	95.0	47.9
Liberty Flames	5.0	7.7	Box Score
@ SMU Mustangs	95.0	42.3
Kansas Jayhawks	35.6	25.0	Box Score
@ Memphis Tigers	64.4	31.0
Virginia Cavaliers	44.0	25.2	Box Score
@ Connecticut Huskies	56.0	26.8
Maryland Terrapins	59.4	28.3	Box Score
@ UCF Knights	40.6	25.1
Houston Cougars	66.3	32.1	Box Score
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	33.7	26.0
Navy Midshipmen	71.3	31.1	Box Score
@ Tulane Green Wave	28.7	23.1