WhatIfSports college football Week 5 predictions: 'Bama bucks the odds, beats Georgia
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 4 in Review
The accuracy dipped a tad from Week 3 to Week 4. Our computers still landed 81.4 percent of the picks on the positive side. Our Game of the Week predicted an accurate Bruins victory over Arizona.
Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 77.6 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 4 Highlight: Oklahoma State over Texas
The computers crunched the numbers and crushed the prediction. The simulation engine didn't like freshman quarterback Jerrod Heard in his first start with the Longhorns and the outcome rang true. The computers spit out a near four points margin of victory (3.8 points). With the Vegas spread of 2.5 points, "investors" needed to sweat, but ultimately took the three-point win with a smile.
Week 4 Lowlight: Utah dismantling Oregon
Now, for the bad news. The projection machine produced an Oregon win 64.4 percent of the time against the conference foe. However, that was not the case. The Utes stormed into Autzen Stadium and silenced the normally boisterous crowd. Maybe this will sway the numbers more toward Utah in future outcomes.
Week 5 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
As conference play begins, the undefeateds start to fall. That will be the case for this showdown. The Mountaineers were impressive last week as they turned the Terrapins into soup. Oklahoma took the week off in preparation for the conference opener. The Sooners needed a breather after a tough game against Tulsa and an overtime win against Tennessee the week prior. We played the matchup 101 times and Oklahoma is favored at home, winning 55.0 percent of simulations.
No. 13 Alabama at No. 8 Georgia
In a rare scenario, the Tide is listed as an underdog. Alabama fell to Ole Miss two weeks ago and will have a similarly tough opponent this week in Athens. All eyes will be on the Heisman hopeful, Nick Chubb, and how Alabama will game plan against him. Chubb has rushed for over 100 yards in 12 straight games. Our simulation engine is picking the upset, predicting a narrow victory for Alabama. Nick Saban’s squad won 53.8 percent of simulations by an average score of 26.3-25.6.
No. 3 Ole Miss at No. 25 Florida
After an impressive win on the road against Alabama, the Rebels only won 27-16 against Vanderbilt (27-point favorites). Maybe they were looking past the Commodores and already thinking about the Gators. Florida was in a similar situation last week as it took a frantic rally to defeat Tennessee, 28-27. One team will improve to 5-0 while the other will be credited with its first loss. We’re predicting a Rebels win, with the team victorious in 520 percent of simulations.
No. 21 Mississippi State at No. 14 Texas A&M
The SEC is a grind and in a division with Alabama, Mississippi, and LSU it puts the upmost importance on keeping the loss total to a minimum. The Aggies are still perfect, but the Bulldogs have already tasted defeat. Can A&M stay perfect? The simulation engine likes the Aggies 53.5 percent of the time by an average score of 29.8-28.6.
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 12 Clemson
The Irish didn't skip a beat with Deshone Kizer at the helm. The Toledo native is 2-0 as the starting QB, but will now test his luck on the road. Clemson has its own "Deshaun" (Watson). The similarities don't stop there. Both have a dominant wide receiver (Will Fuller and Artavis Scott). Both have an impressive running attack. Both have a stingy defense. And both have an undefeated record. After Saturday night’s game, we predict Notre Dame to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. Clemson was victorious in 53.5 percent of simulations.
Week 5 Upset Pick
Louisville (+5.5) over NC State
The 4-0 Wolfpack still aren't getting any love from our computers. The Cardinals have lost three games by a touchdown or less, but were able to take out some frustration against Samford last week. Our simulation engine likes Louisville on the road for its second win of the season. The Cardinals won 52.4 percent of simulations by an average score of 27.8-27.2.
In addition, view our Week 5 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
College Football Week 5 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Boston College Eagles | 44.6 | 24.2 | Box Score |
| @ Duke Blue Devils | 55.4 | 26.1 | |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 44.6 | 29.3 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 55.4 | 30.5 | |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 46.5 | 25.5 | Box Score |
| @ Clemson Tigers | 53.5 | 27.5 | |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 47.3 | 27.6 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Tech Hokies | 52.7 | 27.8 | |
| Louisville Cardinals | 52.4 | 27.2 | Box Score |
| @ North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47.6 | 25.9 | |
| Florida State Seminoles | 84.2 | 31.7 | Box Score |
| @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 15.8 | 20.1 | |
| Army West Point Black Knights | 20.8 | 19.2 | Box Score |
| @ Penn State Nittany Lions | 79.2 | 29.4 | |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 25.7 | 23.5 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan State Spartans | 74.3 | 31.4 | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 36.1 | 24.2 | Box Score |
| @ Wisconsin Badgers | 63.9 | 27.6 | |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 44.6 | 24.4 | Box Score |
| @ Northwestern Wildcats | 55.4 | 25.0 | |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | 60.4 | 30.0 | Box Score |
| @ Illinois Fighting Illini | 39.6 | 26.9 | |
| Michigan Wolverines | 69.3 | 28.8 | Box Score |
| @ Maryland Terrapins | 30.7 | 22.7 | |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 74.3 | 34.7 | Box Score |
| @ Indiana Hoosiers | 25.7 | 24.6 | |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks | 49.6 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Kent State Golden Flashes | 50.4 | 29.4 | |
| Ohio Bobcats | 52.7 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Akron Zips | 47.3 | 28.5 | |
| FIU Golden Panthers | 53.0 | 29.1 | Box Score |
| @ Massachusetts Minutemen | 47.0 | 27.4 | |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 53.5 | 34.1 | Box Score |
| @ Buffalo Bulls | 46.5 | 32.7 | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 55.5 | 28.7 | Box Score |
| @ Central Michigan Chippewas | 44.5 | 27.2 | |
| Toledo Rockets | 57.4 | 33.2 | Box Score |
| @ Ball State Cardinals | 42.6 | 30.6 | |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | 40.6 | 26.9 | Box Score |
| @ UCLA Bruins | 59.4 | 29.7 | |
| Arizona Wildcats | 45.5 | 28.4 | Box Score |
| @ Stanford Cardinal | 54.5 | 29.2 | |
| Washington State Cougars | 48.5 | 33.6 | Box Score |
| @ California Golden Bears | 51.5 | 34.5 | |
| Oregon Ducks | 65.3 | 33.1 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado Buffaloes | 34.7 | 29.2 | |
| Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 5.0 | 6.3 | Box Score |
| @ Kentucky Wildcats | 95.0 | 50.0 | |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles | 8.9 | 19.8 | Box Score |
| @ LSU Tigers | 91.1 | 37.0 | |
| San Jose State Spartans | 34.7 | 24.5 | Box Score |
| @ Auburn Tigers | 65.3 | 31.1 | |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 43.6 | 28.0 | Box Score |
| @ Tennessee Volunteers | 56.4 | 29.3 | |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 46.5 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Texas A&M Aggies | 53.5 | 29.8 | |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | 47.7 | 25.9 | Box Score |
| @ Missouri Tigers | 52.3 | 26.9 | |
| Ole Miss Rebels | 52.0 | 25.1 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Gators | 48.0 | 24.0 | |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 53.8 | 26.3 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Bulldogs | 46.2 | 25.6 | |
| Connecticut Huskies | 26.2 | 22.2 | Box Score |
| @ BYU Cougars | 73.8 | 31.4 | |
| Texas Longhorns | 23.8 | 25.9 | Box Score |
| @ TCU Horned Frogs | 76.2 | 34.0 | |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 44.6 | 27.4 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa State Cyclones | 55.4 | 28.8 | |
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 45.0 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma Sooners | 55.0 | 29.2 | |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 45.9 | 28.5 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | 54.1 | 29.7 | |
| Baylor Bears | 66.3 | 35.2 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | 33.7 | 28.9 | |
| Old Dominion Monarchs | 39.6 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Marshall Thundering Herd | 60.4 | 34.2 | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 42.6 | 25.8 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 57.4 | 29.6 | |
| North Texas Mean Green | 42.1 | 26.7 | Box Score |
| @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 57.9 | 28.3 | |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 45.5 | 24.2 | Box Score |
| @ UTEP Miners | 54.5 | 25.3 | |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 50.5 | 33.1 | Box Score |
| @ Rice Owls | 49.5 | 32.4 | |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 53.5 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 46.5 | 26.7 | |
| Temple Owls | 72.3 | 34.1 | Box Score |
| @ Charlotte 49ers | 27.7 | 23.4 | |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 28.7 | 25.4 | Box Score |
| @ Boise State Broncos | 71.3 | 32.6 | |
| Colorado State Rams | 44.6 | 28.2 | Box Score |
| @ Utah State Aggies | 55.4 | 31.1 | |
| UNLV Rebels | 44.6 | 27.9 | Box Score |
| @ Nevada Wolf Pack | 55.4 | 29.9 | |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 46.5 | 30.9 | Box Score |
| @ New Mexico Lobos | 53.5 | 31.6 | |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 49.8 | 28.7 | Box Score |
| @ San Diego State Aztecs | 50.2 | 29.0 | |
| Liberty Flames | 5.0 | 9.2 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia State Panthers | 95.0 | 40.7 | |
| Idaho Vandals | 27.7 | 25.5 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | 72.3 | 33.0 | |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 28.7 | 28.0 | Box Score |
| @ Appalachian State Mountaineers | 71.3 | 35.0 | |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 45.5 | 26.6 | Box Score |
| @ Troy Trojans | 54.5 | 27.7 | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 65.3 | 31.9 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 34.7 | 24.9 | |
| Air Force Falcons | 45.5 | 28.9 | Box Score |
| @ Navy Midshipmen | 54.5 | 30.2 | |
| UCF Knights | 48.8 | 23.5 | Box Score |
| @ Tulane Green Wave | 51.2 | 24.3 | |
| Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 56.4 | 33.4 | Box Score |
| @ Cincinnati Bearcats | 43.6 | 31.0 | |
| East Carolina Pirates | 66.3 | 31.1 | Box Score |
| @ SMU Mustangs | 33.7 | 26.4 | |
| Houston Cougars | 69.8 | 33.2 | Box Score |
| @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 30.2 | 26.2 | |
| Memphis Tigers | 73.3 | 29.8 | Box Score |
| @ South Florida Bulls | 26.7 | 22.4 |
