WhatIfSports college football Week 5 predictions: Clemson holds off Louisville
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 4 in Review
Our projections continue to rock when it comes to Top 25 teams. Last week, we correctly predicted 17 of the 20 games involving Top 25-ranked clubs. That improved our season Top 25 accuracy to 81.7 percent. Unfortunately, our Game to Watch and Upset of the Week failed to come through. It was the first time we lost the Game of the Week in 2016.
Nailed It: Washington 35 - Arizona 28
As we'll get into later, the Huskies are rebounding from a rough 2015 season. Our computers saw this and projected a score very close to the actual outcome. We predicted Washington to win 63.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 33.3-29.2.
Wide Right: Wisconsin 30 - Michigan State 6
Wisconsin continues to impress in 2016. They started the season with a big win over LSU and have now won on the road against a tough MSU team. We predicted Michigan State to win 54.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.0-23.7. Let's see if the computers change their tune when the Badgers have another big in-conference matchup.
Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 5 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 7 Stanford at No. 10 Washington
The winner of this game has a fast track to the Pac-12 Championship as the representative from the North. Every other team in their division has two losses. Washington was the victim of some tough-luck losses in 2015. The Huskies lost three of their first six games by six points or less, to Boise State, Cal, and Oregon. This year, the Huskies are on the other side. They defeated Arizona in overtime last week. Washington is led by Jake Browning. The sophomore has thrown 14 TDs with only two interceptions. Stanford won the division last year, along with the Rose Bowl game. The Cardinal offense runs through Christian McCaffrey. He's averaging 145.3 rushing yards per game. David Shaw's squad is projected to win 57.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.6-26.9.
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 25 Georgia
One team fell victim to its past while the other one bucked the trend last week. Tennessee had been Gator bait for the last 11 meetings...until last Saturday. After trailing 21-0, the Vols rallied and won 38-28. As for Georgia, the Bulldogs have the stigma of not living up to expectations and always dropping two or three games, causing them to fall in the rankings and remove themselves from top bowl consideration. Last week, the 'Dawgs were defeated by Ole Miss, 45-14. The series matchup between these two couldn't be much closer. Tennessee barely owns the overall record, 22-21-2. Its balanced attack of Joshua Dobbs through the air (201.3 passing yards per game) and the combo of Dobbs and Jalen Hurd on the ground (151.6 rushing yards per game) has resulted in an undefeated start to the season. The dream season should continue for Tennessee as our computer has the Vols winning 52.8 percent of the time, by an average score of 25.9-25.2.
No. 8 Wisconsin at No. 4 Michigan
It's been a tough early schedule for Wisconsin. As for Michigan, this is the biggest test they've had all season. Will the team who played better competition be better for it or will the team who almost coasted through the first four games be more refreshed? The Badgers have won three of the past four meetings, but the tune-up strategy is predicted to be best as the Wolverines win 67.3 percent of the simulations, by an average score of 26.9-23.1.
No. 3 Louisville at No. 5 Clemson
We have six of the Top 10 teams playing one another this week in a great slate of games, but this one is the headliner. Louisville's Lamar Jackson has been on fire. He's thrown 13 TDs and rushed for 12 in the first four games. He has the Cardinals offense averaging 63.5 points per game and an astounding 682 yards per contest. Both currently lead the NCAA. On the other side of the field, Deshaun Watson's Tigers led in the National Championship after three quarters of play before eventually falling to Alabama. This year, they are looking to get back to the title game. Our computers still don't believe in Bobby Petrino's boys as Clemson wins 56.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.9-26.7.
Week 5 Upset Pick
Utah (+1) over California
The Utes haven't lost a game in 2016, yet they are the slight underdog against the two-loss Golden Bears. Junior quarterback Troy Williams is starting to find his rhythm. Last week, he threw for 270 yards and two TDs against USC. Cal has been involved in a shootout every week this season. According to our projections, the Utah defense keeps the scoring low and wins 51.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.6-28.5.
College Football Week 5 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Buffalo Bulls | 34.7 | 20.2 | Box Score |
| @ Boston College Eagles | 65.3 | 26.7 | |
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 37.6 | 23.1 | Box Score |
| @ Pittsburgh Panthers | 62.4 | 29.0 | |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 40.6 | 28.4 | Box Score |
| @ Florida State Seminoles | 59.4 | 31.6 | |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 42.6 | 23.9 | Box Score |
| @ North Carolina State Wolfpack | 57.4 | 25.3 | |
| Louisville Cardinals | 43.6 | 26.7 | Box Score |
| @ Clemson Tigers | 56.4 | 28.9 | |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 47.5 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ Duke Blue Devils | 52.5 | 27.3 | |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 65.3 | 29.6 | Box Score |
| @ Syracuse Orange | 34.7 | 26.1 | |
| Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 66.3 | 28.8 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 33.7 | 23.4 | |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 23.8 | 21.8 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio State Buckeyes | 76.2 | 32.5 | |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 32.7 | 23.1 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan Wolverines | 67.3 | 26.9 | |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 33.7 | 25.5 | Box Score |
| @ Maryland Terrapins | 66.3 | 29.7 | |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 39.6 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | 60.4 | 31.4 | |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 40.6 | 25.3 | Box Score |
| @ Penn State Nittany Lions | 59.4 | 27.1 | |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 42.7 | 21.4 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa Hawkeyes | 57.3 | 23.3 | |
| Michigan State Spartans | 57.4 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Indiana Hoosiers | 42.6 | 25.0 | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 46.5 | 30.9 | Box Score |
| @ Ball State Cardinals | 53.5 | 31.8 | |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles | 48.5 | 30.4 | Box Score |
| @ Bowling Green Falcons | 51.5 | 31.3 | |
| Western Michigan Broncos | 52.5 | 31.1 | Box Score |
| @ Central Michigan Chippewas | 47.5 | 29.4 | |
| Akron Zips | 57.4 | 26.5 | Box Score |
| @ Kent State Golden Flashes | 42.6 | 23.3 | |
| Ohio Bobcats | 60.3 | 30.5 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (OH) RedHawks | 39.7 | 27.4 | |
| Oregon State Beavers | 39.6 | 26.1 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado Buffaloes | 60.4 | 28.7 | |
| Arizona Wildcats | 42.6 | 29.8 | Box Score |
| @ UCLA Bruins | 57.4 | 31.0 | |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | 47.0 | 29.3 | Box Score |
| @ USC Trojans | 53.0 | 30.0 | |
| Utah Utes | 51.5 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ California Golden Bears | 48.5 | 28.5 | |
| Oregon Ducks | 56.4 | 34.5 | Box Score |
| @ Washington State Cougars | 43.6 | 33.0 | |
| Stanford Cardinal | 57.4 | 29.6 | Box Score |
| @ Washington Huskies | 42.6 | 26.9 | |
| Alcorn State Braves | 5.0 | 8.8 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas Razorbacks | 95.0 | 48.2 | |
| Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 19.8 | 23.3 | Box Score |
| @ Auburn Tigers | 80.2 | 33.6 | |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 29.7 | 21.3 | Box Score |
| @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 70.3 | 28.6 | |
| Missouri Tigers | 37.6 | 21.9 | Box Score |
| @ LSU Tigers | 62.4 | 26.5 | |
| Memphis Tigers | 37.1 | 27.3 | Box Score |
| @ Ole Miss Rebels | 62.9 | 30.8 | |
| Tennessee Volunteers | 52.8 | 25.9 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Bulldogs | 47.2 | 25.2 | |
| Florida Gators | 63.4 | 24.4 | Box Score |
| @ Vanderbilt Commodores | 36.6 | 21.0 | |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 65.3 | 29.3 | Box Score |
| @ South Carolina Gamecocks | 34.7 | 24.4 | |
| Toledo Rockets | 38.6 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ BYU Cougars | 61.4 | 30.7 | |
| Tulane Green Wave | 56.4 | 28.7 | Box Score |
| @ Massachusetts Minutemen | 43.6 | 26.9 | |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 23.8 | 25.7 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | 76.2 | 33.1 | |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 42.6 | 24.3 | Box Score |
| @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 57.4 | 25.7 | |
| Texas Longhorns | 47.0 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | 53.0 | 29.1 | |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 55.4 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ TCU Horned Frogs | 44.6 | 27.0 | |
| Baylor Bears | 67.3 | 31.4 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa State Cyclones | 32.7 | 25.8 | |
| Houston Baptist Huskies | 5.0 | 8.2 | Box Score |
| @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 95.0 | 48.8 | |
| Rice Owls | 39.6 | 30.1 | Box Score |
| @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 60.4 | 32.5 | |
| UTEP Miners | 42.6 | 30.3 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 57.4 | 32.6 | |
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 55.0 | 27.4 | Box Score |
| @ FIU Golden Panthers | 45.0 | 26.0 | |
| Old Dominion Monarchs | 69.8 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Charlotte 49ers | 30.2 | 23.8 | |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 77.2 | 33.5 | Box Score |
| @ North Texas Mean Green | 22.8 | 24.7 | |
| Utah State Aggies | 33.2 | 26.9 | Box Score |
| @ Boise State Broncos | 66.8 | 31.5 | |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 36.6 | 28.2 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado State Rams | 63.4 | 30.3 | |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 44.1 | 29.7 | Box Score |
| @ UNLV Rebels | 55.9 | 30.3 | |
| San Jose State Spartans | 47.6 | 28.5 | Box Score |
| @ New Mexico Lobos | 52.4 | 29.6 | |
| Navy Midshipmen | 48.4 | 28.7 | Box Score |
| @ Air Force Falcons | 51.6 | 29.5 | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 59.9 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 40.1 | 27.4 | |
| Incarnate Word Cardinals | 5.0 | 9.7 | Box Score |
| @ Texas State Bobcats | 95.0 | 46.2 | |
| Georgia State Panthers | 37.6 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Appalachian State Mountaineers | 62.4 | 33.3 | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 56.4 | 33.1 | Box Score |
| @ New Mexico State Aggies | 43.6 | 30.3 | |
| Troy Trojans | 66.3 | 31.1 | Box Score |
| @ Idaho Vandals | 33.7 | 26.8 | |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 71.3 | 31.9 | Box Score |
| @ South Alabama Jaguars | 28.7 | 25.5 | |
| Connecticut Huskies | 22.3 | 20.6 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Cougars | 77.7 | 29.4 | |
| UCF Knights | 41.6 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ East Carolina Pirates | 58.4 | 32.6 | |
| SMU Mustangs | 49.5 | 26.2 | Box Score |
| @ Temple Owls | 50.5 | 26.8 | |
| South Florida Bulls | 51.5 | 28.9 | Box Score |
| @ Cincinnati Bearcats | 48.5 | 28.1 |
In addition, view our Week 5 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
