WhatIfSports college football Week 6 predictions: Northwestern falls to Michigan
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 5 in Review
There were five separate games with Top 25 opponents facing one another in Week 5. Our simuation machine went 4-1. One of those wins was in the biggest game of the night. For the Notre Dame/Clemson outcome, the computers produced a two-point win for the Tigers. They won 24-22.
Our upset picks were also 4-1, including the Louisville win over North Carolina State.
Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 77.6 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 5 Highlight: Ohio State over Indiana
The simulations had the Buckeyes winning 34.7 to 24.6 over the Hoosier. In actuality, Ohio State scored 34 points to Indiana's 27. Either way, we had the underdog winning when you factor in the 21.5 points that Vegas was doling out.
Week 5 Lowlight: Arizona State defeating UCLA
Unfortunately, our computers weren't perfect. According to the simulations, the Bruins were supposed to win by three (59.4 percent of the time). However, this game must have been one of the 40.6 percent. The Sun Devils won by 15.
Week 6 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 13 Northwestern vs. No. 18 Michigan
The Wildcats currently sit atop the Big Ten West standings and their path hasn't been easy. They started the season with a win over Stanford, defeated Duke, and were golden against the Gophers last week. Northwestern's biggest strength has been its defense. This season, they have yet to allow more than 19 points in a game. When an offense knows that scoring 20 points will get the win, the pressure eases a bit. As for the Wolverines, the world wrote them off after they lost in Week 1 to Utah. Since that game, Michigan has allowed only 14 points in four combined contests. Naturally, they also won those four games. Our simulations suggest that Michigan's winning streak will extend to five. The Wolverines won 60.4 percent of the contests by an average score of 24.6-22.0 over Northwestern.
No. 23 California vs. No. 5 Utah
If I saw a 62-20 final score between Oregon and Utah in Eugene, my guess would be that the Ducks rolled at home. Wrong. It was the Utes who brought the noise to Autzen Stadium and left with the dubya. While the Utes (4-0) lead the Pac-12 South, Cal (5-0) is tops in the North. However, this isn't the Pac-12 Championship...yet. The Golden Bears have teetered on the brink of defeat, but managed to keep a clean slate on the loss side. Last week, Cal needed to score 21 points in the third quarter to win over Washington State. The week before that, Cal won by six, on the road, against Washington. Then, in Week 3, there was the one-point pressure cooker in Texas. When teams rely heavily on the close victory, the odds tend to even out and sway in the other direction. After 101 simulations, the Utes remained undefeated 58.4 percent of the time by an average score of 31-29.7 over Cal.
Week 6 Upset Pick: Wisconsin (+1.5) over Nebraska
The Badgers lost 10-6 last week to Iowa...in Madison. Nebraska's Week 5 outcome wasn't better. They lost by one (14-13) to Illinois. After 101 simulations, our computers believe that Wisconsin has the better shot to bounce back. With 55.4 percent of the simulations, Wisconsin won by an average score of 26.4-25.8 over the Cornhuskers.
College Football Week 6 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 28.2 | 23.0 | Box Score |
| @ Pittsburgh Panthers | 71.8 | 28.8 | |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 31.7 | 23.9 | Box Score |
| @ Clemson Tigers | 68.3 | 30.3 | |
| Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 32.7 | 25.9 | Box Score |
| @ Florida State Seminoles | 67.3 | 31.9 | |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 38.6 | 21.2 | Box Score |
| @ Boston College Eagles | 61.4 | 25.3 | |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack | 46.5 | 25.5 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Tech Hokies | 53.5 | 25.9 | |
| Maryland Terrapins | 18.8 | 22.5 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio State Buckeyes | 81.2 | 35.4 | |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 39.6 | 22.0 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan Wolverines | 60.4 | 24.6 | |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 42.6 | 24.8 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa Hawkeyes | 57.4 | 27.7 | |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 47.6 | 25.4 | Box Score |
| @ Penn State Nittany Lions | 52.4 | 26.7 | |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 55.4 | 26.4 | Box Score |
| @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | 44.6 | 25.8 | |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 62.9 | 26.5 | Box Score |
| @ Purdue Boilermakers | 37.1 | 23.4 | |
| Michigan State Spartans | 77.2 | 32.0 | Box Score |
| @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 22.8 | 20.9 | |
| Kent State Golden Flashes | 30.2 | 27.7 | Box Score |
| @ Toledo Rockets | 69.8 | 34.0 | |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks | 35.6 | 26.1 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio Bobcats | 64.4 | 29.7 | |
| Massachusetts Minutemen | 35.6 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Bowling Green Falcons | 64.4 | 33.5 | |
| Ball State Cardinals | 44.6 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Northern Illinois Huskies | 55.4 | 29.0 | |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 48.0 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Western Michigan Broncos | 52.0 | 28.9 | |
| Akron Zips | 65.3 | 33.4 | Box Score |
| @ Eastern Michigan Eagles | 34.7 | 27.2 | |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 26.7 | 26.1 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona State Sun Devils | 73.3 | 34.4 | |
| Washington Huskies | 33.7 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ USC Trojans | 66.3 | 32.5 | |
| Washington State Cougars | 36.6 | 28.7 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon Ducks | 63.4 | 32.1 | |
| California Golden Bears | 41.6 | 29.7 | Box Score |
| @ Utah Utes | 58.4 | 31.0 | |
| Oregon State Beavers | 45.5 | 29.1 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona Wildcats | 54.5 | 30.7 | |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 24.8 | 24.8 | Box Score |
| @ Ole Miss Rebels | 75.2 | 35.2 | |
| Troy Trojans | 29.2 | 22.8 | Box Score |
| @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | 70.8 | 31.6 | |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 38.6 | 23.3 | Box Score |
| @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 61.4 | 27.6 | |
| Florida Gators | 59.4 | 25.5 | Box Score |
| @ Missouri Tigers | 40.6 | 22.4 | |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 64.4 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Tennessee Volunteers | 35.6 | 24.2 | |
| LSU Tigers | 70.3 | 31.5 | Box Score |
| @ South Carolina Gamecocks | 29.7 | 24.7 | |
| Navy Midshipmen | 31.7 | 26.0 | Box Score |
| @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 68.3 | 31.9 | |
| East Carolina Pirates | 40.6 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ BYU Cougars | 59.4 | 31.2 | |
| Duke Blue Devils | 74.3 | 33.0 | Box Score |
| @ Army West Point Black Knights | 25.7 | 22.4 | |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 40.1 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | 59.9 | 33.3 | |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys | 48.1 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 51.9 | 28.8 | |
| TCU Horned Frogs | 58.4 | 33.0 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas State Wildcats | 41.6 | 30.2 | |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 64.9 | 29.9 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Longhorns | 35.1 | 23.2 | |
| Baylor Bears | 78.2 | 32.2 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas Jayhawks | 21.8 | 23.1 | |
| Portland State Vikings | 5.0 | 7.8 | Box Score |
| @ North Texas Mean Green | 95.0 | 40.0 | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 35.6 | 29.4 | Box Score |
| @ Marshall Thundering Herd | 64.4 | 31.8 | |
| UTEP Miners | 38.6 | 23.3 | Box Score |
| @ FIU Golden Panthers | 61.4 | 26.7 | |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47.5 | 32.8 | Box Score |
| @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 52.5 | 34.4 | |
| Rice Owls | 62.4 | 30.8 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Atlantic Owls | 37.6 | 27.5 | |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 65.3 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ UTSA Roadrunners | 34.7 | 22.4 | |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 34.7 | 27.7 | Box Score |
| @ Air Force Falcons | 65.3 | 31.8 | |
| New Mexico Lobos | 48.5 | 29.7 | Box Score |
| @ Nevada Wolf Pack | 51.5 | 30.6 | |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 57.4 | 29.9 | Box Score |
| @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 42.6 | 27.2 | |
| San Jose State Spartans | 60.2 | 31.3 | Box Score |
| @ UNLV Rebels | 39.8 | 28.5 | |
| Boise State Broncos | 63.4 | 31.8 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado State Rams | 36.6 | 27.8 | |
| Utah State Aggies | 67.3 | 31.3 | Box Score |
| @ Fresno State Bulldogs | 32.7 | 27.1 | |
| Texas State Bobcats | 49.1 | 30.7 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 50.9 | 30.9 | |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers | 66.8 | 33.7 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia State Panthers | 33.2 | 27.6 | |
| SMU Mustangs | 30.7 | 24.7 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Cougars | 69.3 | 32.0 | |
| Tulane Green Wave | 41.6 | 23.4 | Box Score |
| @ Temple Owls | 58.4 | 28.6 | |
| Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 44.6 | 28.0 | Box Score |
| @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 55.4 | 30.3 | |
| Connecticut Huskies | 44.6 | 23.9 | Box Score |
| @ UCF Knights | 55.4 | 25.3 | |
| Syracuse Orange | 54.5 | 24.4 | Box Score |
| @ South Florida Bulls | 45.5 | 22.3 |
In addition, view our Week 6 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
