WhatIfSports college football Week 6 predictions: Tennessee's luck runs out vs. Texas A&M
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 5 in Review
We continue to be successful on the Games to Watch portion of these pieces. Last week, we highlighted the Louisville/Clemson game. The simulations suggested that the Cardinals couldn't get it done in Death Valley and they were right. However, we lost another Upset of the Week when Utah couldn't stop Davis Webb and the Cal passing attack.
Nailed It: Penn State 29 - Minnesota 26
It took some overtime, but the Penn State win went just as we predicted. The Nittany Lions' Saquon Barkley ran 25 yards into the end zone, securing a win over the Golden Gophers. We had PSU winning 59.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 27.1-25.3.
Wide Right: Washington 44 - Stanford 6
The Huskies continue to impress as they stomped No. 7 Stanford on Friday night. Jake Browning threw three TDs and tallied 210 yards against the Cardinal defense and the Huskies held Christian McCaffrey to only 49 rushing yards, his lowest total since November of 2014. We predicted Stanford to win 57.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.6-26.9.
Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 6 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 25 Virginia Tech at No. 17 North Carolina
Both ACC teams stumbled in their matchup with a member from the SEC this season. The Hokies lost to unbeaten Tennessee in the Battle at Bristol and the Tar Heels fell to Georgia in Week 1. Since the opening loss, UNC has won four straight games, including a shootout with Florida State last week (37-35). Junior Mitch Trubisky has been the driving force behind the Tar Heels offense. In his first year as a full-time starter, Trubisky has yet to thrown an interception. He's also tallied at least 400 passing yards in the past four contests. As for Virginia Tech, other than the one hiccup, its defense has delivered in 2016. Virginia Tech is ninth in the nation when it comes to yardage allowed per game (264) and the Hokies only surrender an average of 18.8 points per game. According to our simulations, UNC will surpass that 18.8 average this week as they win 66.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 30.1-26.6.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas A&M
The Volunteers and Aggies currently lead their respective divisions in the SEC, just like everyone predicted. Well, maybe not everybody...or anybody. Tennessee survived last week on a last-second Hail Mary from Joshua Dobbs to Jauan Jennings in a 34-31 win over Georgia. The Volunteers now get an undefeated Aggies team and, potentially, another undefeated team in Alabama the following week. A&M is in the same boat. After this game, the team gets a week off before traveling to Tuscaloosa. Who will be the lone unbeaten team before their matchup with the Tide? Our simulations report that the Aggies win 58.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.8-27.9.
No. 1 Alabama at No. 16 Arkansas
So, in the previous scenario, we were just running under the assumption that the Tide would remain undefeated after Week 6, mainly because Alabama hasn't lost to Arkansas in the past nine meetings. Well, I'm sure Arkansas will have something to say about that this Saturday. The Razorbacks have the second-most wins in the SEC West, but they haven't recorded a win within the conference yet. They'll face an Alabama defense that allows an average of 13 points per game (ninth-best in NCAA). When we crunch the numbers, 'Bama wins 67.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.3-22.3.
No. 23 Florida State at No. 10 Miami
Bobby Bowden and Larry Coker aren't patrolling the sidelines anymore, but this rivalry still has meaning. Between all the missed late field goals, Miami leads the overall series 31-29, even though FSU has won the past six meetings. The U is undefeated and produces a very balanced offense. They average 232.5 rushing yards and 241.8 passing yards per game. The running back duo of Mark Walton and Joseph Yearby each average over seven yards per attempt and have scored at least five touchdowns apiece. The Seminoles have been leaning on their star running back, Dalvin Cook. In the past two games, he's accumulated 407 rushing yards and five TDs. After running the simulations, Miami wins 56.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.7-28.4
Week 6 Upset Pick
Florida (+2.5) over LSU
Vegas doesn't seem to think the Tigers will have a hard time adjusting to Ed Orgeron as the new head coach of LSU. Last week, in his first game replacing Les Miles, the Tigers ran for 418 yards and six TDs against Missouri. The Gators are 11th in the country by allowing only 90.6 rushing yards per game. Something's got to give. Our computers suggest the Tigers will become gator bait. Florida wins 52.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 24.8-24.0.
College Football Week 6 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Army West Point Black Knights | 25.7 | 23.2 | Box Score |
| @ Duke Blue Devils | 74.3 | 30.3 | |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 33.7 | 26.6 | Box Score |
| @ North Carolina Tar Heels | 66.3 | 30.1 | |
| Syracuse Orange | 40.1 | 24.3 | Box Score |
| @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 59.9 | 28.1 | |
| Florida State Seminoles | 43.6 | 28.4 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 56.4 | 29.7 | |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 44.6 | 24.6 | Box Score |
| @ Pittsburgh Panthers | 55.4 | 26.4 | |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 51.3 | 26.7 | Box Score |
| @ North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48.7 | 26.0 | |
| Clemson Tigers | 69.3 | 26.9 | Box Score |
| @ Boston College Eagles | 30.7 | 19.9 | |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 34.7 | 24.8 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio State Buckeyes | 65.3 | 31.9 | |
| Maryland Terrapins | 40.6 | 25.2 | Box Score |
| @ Penn State Nittany Lions | 59.4 | 27.4 | |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 45.7 | 27.3 | Box Score |
| @ Illinois Fighting Illini | 54.3 | 28.5 | |
| BYU Cougars | 48.9 | 25.7 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan State Spartans | 51.1 | 26.4 | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 56.5 | 26.6 | Box Score |
| @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | 43.5 | 24.6 | |
| Michigan Wolverines | 81.2 | 33.9 | Box Score |
| @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 18.8 | 23.8 | |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks | 34.7 | 26.6 | Box Score |
| @ Akron Zips | 65.3 | 30.1 | |
| Ball State Cardinals | 39.6 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Central Michigan Chippewas | 60.4 | 31.6 | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 41.6 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ Western Michigan Broncos | 58.4 | 31.4 | |
| Kent State Golden Flashes | 45.3 | 24.5 | Box Score |
| @ Buffalo Bulls | 54.7 | 25.6 | |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 46.5 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio Bobcats | 53.5 | 30.6 | |
| Toledo Rockets | 56.4 | 35.1 | Box Score |
| @ Eastern Michigan Eagles | 43.6 | 31.0 | |
| Washington State Cougars | 37.6 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Stanford Cardinal | 62.4 | 34.4 | |
| Arizona Wildcats | 45.3 | 27.2 | Box Score |
| @ Utah Utes | 54.7 | 28.2 | |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 48.5 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ USC Trojans | 51.5 | 29.9 | |
| UCLA Bruins | 54.5 | 30.7 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona State Sun Devils | 45.5 | 29.3 | |
| Washington Huskies | 58.4 | 31.9 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon Ducks | 41.6 | 28.9 | |
| California Golden Bears | 63.4 | 32.5 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon State Beavers | 36.6 | 28.0 | |
| Tennessee Volunteers | 41.6 | 27.9 | Box Score |
| @ Texas A&M Aggies | 58.4 | 29.8 | |
| LSU Tigers | 47.7 | 24.0 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Gators | 52.3 | 24.8 | |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 49.8 | 25.6 | Box Score |
| @ Kentucky Wildcats | 50.2 | 26.1 | |
| Auburn Tigers | 54.5 | 28.0 | Box Score |
| @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | 45.5 | 27.1 | |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 66.3 | 28.7 | Box Score |
| @ South Carolina Gamecocks | 33.7 | 22.9 | |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 67.3 | 29.3 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas Razorbacks | 32.7 | 22.3 | |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 26.7 | 24.2 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | 73.3 | 31.4 | |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 45.5 | 29.1 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas State Wildcats | 54.5 | 30.1 | |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 51.0 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Longhorns | 49.0 | 26.9 | |
| TCU Horned Frogs | 76.2 | 31.2 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas Jayhawks | 23.8 | 21.6 | |
| Massachusetts Minutemen | 41.6 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ Old Dominion Monarchs | 58.4 | 31.9 | |
| FIU Golden Panthers | 46.4 | 28.5 | Box Score |
| @ UTEP Miners | 53.6 | 29.7 | |
| Charlotte 49ers | 45.0 | 21.7 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Atlantic Owls | 55.0 | 25.0 | |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 57.4 | 33.5 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 42.6 | 31.3 | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 58.4 | 28.6 | Box Score |
| @ UTSA Roadrunners | 41.6 | 26.8 | |
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 74.3 | 32.2 | Box Score |
| @ North Texas Mean Green | 25.7 | 24.9 | |
| UNLV Rebels | 21.8 | 24.4 | Box Score |
| @ San Diego State Aztecs | 78.2 | 32.8 | |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 46.5 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ Nevada Wolf Pack | 53.5 | 30.0 | |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 47.5 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ San Jose State Spartans | 52.5 | 29.6 | |
| Air Force Falcons | 59.4 | 32.4 | Box Score |
| @ Wyoming Cowboys | 40.6 | 28.4 | |
| Utah State Aggies | 62.4 | 31.1 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado State Rams | 37.6 | 25.9 | |
| Boise State Broncos | 65.3 | 31.9 | Box Score |
| @ New Mexico Lobos | 34.7 | 26.0 | |
| Texas State Bobcats | 47.6 | 32.0 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia State Panthers | 52.4 | 32.4 | |
| Idaho Vandals | 47.7 | 29.4 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 52.3 | 29.5 | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 56.4 | 29.8 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | 43.6 | 26.6 | |
| SMU Mustangs | 34.7 | 27.4 | Box Score |
| @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 65.3 | 32.2 | |
| East Carolina Pirates | 43.6 | 26.5 | Box Score |
| @ South Florida Bulls | 56.4 | 29.1 | |
| Tulane Green Wave | 44.1 | 25.8 | Box Score |
| @ UCF Knights | 55.9 | 29.4 | |
| Temple Owls | 45.5 | 27.3 | Box Score |
| @ Memphis Tigers | 54.5 | 28.4 | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 59.4 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Connecticut Huskies | 40.6 | 25.5 | |
| Houston Cougars | 71.8 | 30.8 | Box Score |
| @ Navy Midshipmen | 28.2 | 25.4 |
In addition, view our Week 6 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
