WhatIfSports NFL Week 11 predictions: Bengals drop another close game
Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.
To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.
Note: Our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2015 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.
Week 10 in Review
For the first time since Week 2, the NFL simulation engine had a losing record picking games straight up, going just 6-8. Surprisingly enough, however, the engine had a winning record against the spread, finishing Week 10 with a 7-5 record.
Nailed It: Our predictions were confident that the Carolina Panthers would beat the Tennessee Titans going away, and that's exactly what happened. The engine calculated the Panthers would win by a final score of 26-14. The actual final? Panthers 27, Titans 10.
Wide Right: The New Orleans Saints have been almost impossible to predict this year, and they kept it up last week. We predicted the Saints would beat Washington by an average score of 26-23, but the Redskins ended up stomping the Saints, 47-14.
Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season.
Week 11 Game to Watch
Cincinnati at Arizona: The Bengals are no longer undefeated, and things won't get easier with a trip to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. This matchup features two of the best teams in the league, and our engine has the Cardinals pulling out a win 57.6 percent of the time by an average score of 25-22.
Week 11 Upset Pick
Rams (+2) over Ravens: St. Louis has opted to make a quarterback change and go with Case Keenum over Nick Foles, and our engine likes Keenum to help lead the Rams to victory over a bad Baltimore defense. Our NFL prediction engine has the Rams winning 54.4 percent of the time, despite being on the road.
Fantasy Radar
Fantasy Start -- Derek Carr, OAK: No player is projected to score more points in Week 11 than Carr, who gets a juicy matchup against a Detroit Lions secondary that has been vulnerable this year. Carr is projected to score 25.6 points in Week 11.
Fantasy Sit -- Emmanuel Sanders, DEN: The engine isn't loving the Broncos' passing game this week, despite a good matchup. Sanders is projected to score just 7.5 fantasy points against the Chicago Bears, which would make him a borderline Flex option.
Fantasy Add -- Danny Amendola, NE: With Julian Edelman out, Amendola is expected to step up as a top target for New England Patriots QB Tom Brady against the Buffalo Bills. Amendola is projected to score 9.3 points, which would make him a WR1 candidate.
For more fantasy football tips, view our Week 11 player projections.
NFL Week 11 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Washington Redskins | 18.2 | 15 | Box Score |
| @ Carolina Panthers | 81.8 | 26 | Simulate Game |
| Buffalo Bills | 28.5 | 19 | Box Score |
| @ New England Patriots | 71.5 | 26 | Simulate Game |
| San Francisco 49ers | 31.0 | 21 | Box Score |
| @ Seattle Seahawks | 69.0 | 27 | Simulate Game |
| Indianapolis Colts | 32.9 | 23 | Box Score |
| @ Atlanta Falcons | 67.1 | 29 | Simulate Game |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 38.1 | 23 | Box Score |
| @ Philadelphia Eagles | 61.9 | 27 | Simulate Game |
| Tennessee Titans | 39.0 | 21 | Box Score |
| @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 61.0 | 24 | Simulate Game |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 42.4 | 22 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona Cardinals | 57.6 | 25 | Simulate Game |
| Dallas Cowboys | 43.7 | 23 | Box Score |
| @ Miami Dolphins | 56.3 | 26 | Simulate Game |
| Green Bay Packers | 47.9 | 23 | Box Score |
| @ Minnesota Vikings | 52.1 | 24 | Simulate Game |
| New York Jets | 49.1 | 19 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Texans | 50.9 | 20 | Simulate Game |
| St. Louis Rams | 54.4 | 25 | Box Score |
| @ Baltimore Ravens | 45.6 | 24 | Simulate Game |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 56.7 | 29 | Box Score |
| @ San Diego Chargers | 43.3 | 27 | Simulate Game |
| Denver Broncos | 65.2 | 26 | Box Score |
| @ Chicago Bears | 34.8 | 21 | Simulate Game |
| Oakland Raiders | 70.3 | 28 | Box Score |
| @ Detroit Lions | 29.7 | 22 | Simulate Game |
For additional content, view our Week 11 NFL power rankings, NFL archive or sortable weekly NFL predictions.
