WhatIfSports NFL Week 3 predictions: Chargers rally with upset of Vikings
Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.
To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.
Note: our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2015 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.
Week 2 in Review
Every year there seems to be an “upset week” where multiple teams pull off unexpected wins against the odds. That was Week 2. Our NFL simulation engine went just 6-10 in straight up picks, due in large part to the Jets (25.1% odds of winning), Jaguars (27.6%), Raiders (29.9%), Vikings (35.5%), and Redskins (36.3%) all pulling off wins. Against the spread, we were 5-7. We correctly predicted the Game of the Week, with the Packers beating the Seahawks.
Nailed It: Our NFL simulation engine predicted the Bengals would narrowly edge out the Chargers by an average score of 26-22. Actual score: 24-19, Bengals.
Wide Right: The lock of the week and survivor pool pick was the Colts over the Jets. Oops. We had the Colts winning 74.9 percent of the time by an average score of 28-19. Instead, the Jets defense led the way to a dominant 20-7 victory.
Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season.
Week 3 Game to Watch
Kansas City at Green Bay: For the second straight week, the Packers have a tough opponent coming into Lambeau. The Packers haven’t lost at home since the 2013 season, but the Chiefs are coming off a painfully close loss to the Denver Broncos. Our simulation engine has the Packers winning 62.0 percent of the time with an average score of 25-21.
Week 3 Upset Pick
San Diego (+2.5) over Minnesota: The Chargers will travel to Minnesota to take on Adrian Peterson and the Vikings, who are slightly favored in this one. We predict the Chargers to have the edge 58.5 percent of the time, with an average score of 25-22.
Fantasy Radar
Fantasy Start – Latavius Murray: Our simulation engine doesn’t like the Raiders to beat the Browns, but it has RB Latavius Murray going off for a nice day regardless, scoring 14.0 points in FOX Fantasy Leagues.
Fantasy Sit – Jordan Matthews: With a tough matchup against a strong Jets secondary, our simulation engine doesn’t think Eagles WR Jordan Matthews will put up strong numbers. The engine has him scoring just 7.2 points in FOX leagues, which is less than guys like Leonard Hankerson and Doug Baldwin.
Fantasy Add – Devonta Freeman: With Tevin Coleman almost certainly sidelined with injury, Falcons RB Devonta Freeman should be an unquestioned three-down back against the Cowboys. Our engine has Freeman scoring 13.4 points in FOX leagues.
For more fantasy football tips, view our Week 3 player projections.
NFL Week 3 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Chicago Bears | 17.1 | 16 | Box Score |
| @ Seattle Seahawks | 82.9 | 29 | Simulate Game |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 18.2 | 16 | Box Score |
| @ New England Patriots | 81.8 | 28 | Simulate Game |
| Washington Redskins | 33.5 | 22 | Box Score |
| @ New York Giants | 66.5 | 28 | Simulate Game |
| Oakland Raiders | 35.9 | 21 | Box Score |
| @ Cleveland Browns | 64.1 | 26 | Simulate Game |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 37.5 | 18 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Texans | 62.5 | 22 | Simulate Game |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 38.0 | 21 | Box Score |
| @ Green Bay Packers | 62.0 | 25 | Simulate Game |
| San Francisco 49ers | 39.9 | 22 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona Cardinals | 60.1 | 25 | Simulate Game |
| New Orleans Saints | 42.7 | 23 | Box Score |
| @ Carolina Panthers | 57.3 | 25 | Simulate Game |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 47.8 | 21 | Box Score |
| @ New York Jets | 52.2 | 22 | Simulate Game |
| Atlanta Falcons | 53.7 | 25 | Box Score |
| @ Dallas Cowboys | 46.3 | 24 | Simulate Game |
| San Diego Chargers | 58.5 | 25 | Box Score |
| @ Minnesota Vikings | 41.5 | 22 | Simulate Game |
| Buffalo Bills | 62.5 | 24 | Box Score |
| @ Miami Dolphins | 37.5 | 20 | Simulate Game |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 62.2 | 24 | Box Score |
| @ Baltimore Ravens | 37.8 | 20 | Simulate Game |
| Denver Broncos | 65.7 | 28 | Box Score |
| @ Detroit Lions | 34.3 | 22 | Simulate Game |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 73.1 | 28 | Box Score |
| @ St. Louis Rams | 26.9 | 21 | Simulate Game |
| Indianapolis Colts | 76.9 | 31 | Box Score |
| @ Tennessee Titans | 23.1 | 22 | Simulate Game |
For additional content, view our Week 3 NFL power rankings, NFL archive or sortable weekly NFL predictions.
